The new Hunger Games film is forecast at $60M. Will it open with $105M or more?
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping opens in US cinemas on 20 November. Early forecasts put its first weekend at $60 million or more.
What happened
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping has hit tracking with a floor of $60M+ U.S., and opens in cinemas on .
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping opens on . On the film news site Deadline reported early audience surveys, known as tracking. They put the film’s first three days in US cinemas at $60 million or more. Other studios expect much more, “possibly even north of $70M”.
The movie, from Hunger Games franchise director Francis Lawrence, starts shooting arrows into cinemas on Nov. 20.
Deadline,
The film is the sixth in the series, made by the studio Lionsgate. The fifth, The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, opened with $44.6 million in 2023, soon after the actors’ strike ended. The best opening in the series is $158 million, for Catching Fire in 2013.
The trailer had 109 million views in its first 24 hours, the second most for a Lionsgate film after Michael. The book sold over 1.5 million copies worldwide in its first week. Deadline says more people name the film their first choice to see than named Wicked, which opened with $112.5 million.
Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson, the stars of the first films, return for short appearances. There was a fan event with the cast in London, and another in Los Angeles is set for the following week.
The Pattern
We looked for cases where a new film in a series opened after a weaker last film, and Deadline had published a first forecast for its opening weekend about three weeks before. We found ten such films from 2015 to 2025. For each one we compared the first three days in cinemas with the lower end of that first forecast.
Show the other 8 cases
The Read
Films like this have split into two groups. Four of the ten opened far above their first forecast, 78% to 140% above, and $105 million would be 75% above the $60 million forecast for this film. Six opened close to their first forecast or below it, from 34% below to 4% above, and none landed in between. This time, more people name this film their first choice than named Wicked, which opened with $112.5 million.
There are reasons for doubt. Every first forecast here comes from one publication, Deadline. Godzilla x Kong opened 78% above its forecast, and $105 million needs 75%, so one of the four high films only just made it. And the last Hunger Games film also opened a week before Thanksgiving, in 2023, and took 11% less than its first forecast.
Sources: Deadline (2, 3), Box Office Mojo
Disclaimer
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