Three of five times a parliament voted on legal status for people without papers, one side won by 150 or more, twice by 37 or fewer.
History3 of 5Hunch39%
Four of five times since 2002 when Senate control could depend on a race that might go to a second round, it was named within 15 days.
History4 of 5Hunch71%
Six of nine Florida property tax cuts put to voters from 2016 to 2024 reached 60%, and three fell just short.
History100%Hunch87%
In all five Georgia Senate races since 1974 where the senator's party was out of power, someone won over half on day one.
History5 of 5Hunch93%
Six of seven times since 2015, a UK Budget left out a year for its defence goal, and once it gave one.
History86%Hunch90%
One of four such visits led to a meeting with Donald Trump within eight weeks, and three did not.
History1 of 4Hunch22%
In four of six final rounds where a first-term mayor faced a city council member, the mayor lost, and twice the mayor won.
History67%Hunch69%
In all six US Senate races since 1990 where an independent took on a sitting senator and no Democrat ran, the senator won.
History100%Hunch78%
Four of six times, Britain's top court took more than 47 days to rule on a security appeal like this, and twice it was faster.
History67%Hunch68%
In three of four US maps drawn to win a seat at a midterm, the party that drew it won the seat, and once it lost.
History3 of 4Hunch33%
Six of seven bills to move public TV and radio from a fee to state money started on time, and once a president blocked one.
History86%Hunch76%
Three of four times someone asked a court to stop a US state making a result official, it was delayed, and the leader won.
History3 of 4Hunch45%
All six opposition leaders jailed before trial in Latin America since 2014 were still in jail 38 days later, and five got out later.
History100%Hunch97%
Three of ten times, ministers replied to a report by MPs on time, and the other seven replies were late, missing or not exactly dated.
History30%Hunch30%
Six of seven times sides at war agreed a local truce for aid, aid got in or people left within a week, and once nothing moved.
History86%Hunch82%
Three of ten times, ministers replied to a report by MPs on time, and the other seven replies were late, missing or not exactly dated.
History30%Hunch30%
Seven of eight such UN nature summits closed by the day after their last planned day, and one finished four months later.
History86%Hunch70%
In five of seven EU summits where a name for a partner's status was proposed first, the joint text used it word for word.
History71%Hunch31%
Twice in nine times, Italy's parliament made such a decree law with four days to spare, and seven times it took 59 or 60 days.
History22%Hunch18%
In four of four US sales of companies under sanctions, each licence was replaced or the sale approved before it ran out.
History4 of 4Hunch98%
One of eight national maternity plans in the UK backed fewer hospital units, and seven did not.
History12%Hunch17%
Four of six times a Korean government said it would restart a stopped step at the border, it began, and twice it did not.
History50%Hunch27%
Six of nine times, Poland's president did not sign a law he had promised not to sign, and three times he signed it.
History67%Hunch88%
In one of four US court orders to question a party under oath by a set day, the questioning went ahead on time.
History1 of 4Hunch19%
In two of five such California races the winner won by more than 18.4 points, and three times by less.
History2 of 5Hunch70%
In four of eight past waves of riots, France declared a state of emergency, and in the other four it did not.
History1 of 5Hunch15%
In six of seven Israeli election rounds since 2003 the prime minister was still in office 58 days later, and in 2022 he was not.
History86%Hunch87%
In one of six times the US eased sanctions to keep a rival talking, the rival gave a new step within a month.
History17%Hunch20%
In none of four pauses promised until an election did the two sides sign a deal within a month of the vote.
History0 of 4Hunch8%
Four of four times a government asked parliament for a law to give back a permit a court had cancelled, parliament passed it.
History4 of 4Hunch79%
In five UK and EU deals since 2022, cod limits were cut two times in five: the one limit in 2022, one of two in 2023 and 2026.
History2 of 5Hunch42%
Four times a UK minister asked a public body for an urgent document, none came within 25 days and three came later.
History0 of 4Hunch1%
In none of six US pauses of sanctions required by law did the government bring any in by the first end date.
History0%Hunch7%
Two of four times the UK delayed its reply to the climate watchdog, a new climate plan came the same day, and twice it did not.
History2 of 4Hunch40%
Only one of ten EU texts on sudden mass arrivals let countries limit asylum claims, and countries never voted on it.
History10%Hunch18%
Three of five times EU leaders put off money for a country in need, the next summit named a sum and a source, and twice it did not.
History3 of 5Hunch62%
In seven of nine releases that started just under a million, the count moved by less than 19,000, and twice it rose by more.
History78%Hunch72%
One of six times Australia's Senate passed a savings bill it had thrown out, by the end of that year, and five times it did not.
History17%Hunch24%
Four of four times a G20 host whose finance ministers could not agree a joint text still got a leaders' declaration at the summit.
History4 of 4Hunch78%
Four of six times a party that held a Senate seat for decades fell behind in the polls, it lost the seat, and twice it kept it.
History4 of 5Hunch64%
Two of four times a US court ruled on questioning a president under oath, it set a date, and twice it gave none.
History2 of 4Hunch25%
Five of seven times peers debated a plan to take away jury trials, they let it pass, and twice they voted it down.
History71%Hunch66%
Five of eight new Spanish parties recorded in the state's poll before the vote won a seat at their first general election.
History62%Hunch41%
Two of five times EU leaders agreed a long-term budget at the summit named for it, and three times the deal came months later.
History2 of 5Hunch31%
Five of eight times the EU named deals before a summit, they were signed on the day, and three times they were not.
History62%Hunch55%
One of five times a government promised to shield its firms from foreign rules, it came within 79 days, and four times it took longer.
History1 of 5Hunch48%
All seven foreigners in reported Russian spying arrests since 2014 were still in custody when the first court term ended.
History100%Hunch97%
Six of ten times since 1996, New Zealand named a new cabinet within 20 days of the vote, and four times talks took longer.
History60%Hunch44%
All four times a UK ban on selling a product had a start date set in law months ahead, it started on that day.
History4 of 4Hunch97%
Six of six times since 2014, the side a little ahead in a poll a month before an Australian state vote formed the government.
History100%Hunch88%
Three of five big donors gave new money that showed in reports before the vote, and two gave nothing new in time.
History4 of 5Hunch88%
One of seven Trump appointees hit by such press reports left within three weeks, and six stayed longer.
History14%Hunch32%
None of four companies that set the UK government a deadline paused its project within 80 days, and three later went ahead.
History0 of 4Hunch4%
Three of six times since 1973, rule by the governor in a Pakistani province ended within two months, and three times it lasted longer.
History50%Hunch37%
Four of five times a US court briefly stopped government spending, it extended the order or made it longer, and once it let it go.
History4 of 5Hunch74%
School leaders in England say Ofsted's new inspections hurt staff. Four of seven times a union of senior staff threatened action, it called a vote of members within a month. Only once was it within a week.
History57%Hunch40%
One of four delayed UK reports came out within two months of its due date, and three took four to ten months.
History1 of 4Hunch30%
One of four such German trials reached a verdict within 135 days; two took about five months, and one is still going.
History1 of 4Hunch42%
On five days since 2000 the Assembly voted to exclude ministers, and none of the votes passed.
History0 of 5Hunch1%
Voters backed ID at the polls in six of seven state votes since 2004; once, in Arizona in 2022, they said no.
History86%Hunch42%
In none of four such fights did a higher court pause the ruling within 25 days; three pauses took 45 days or more.
History4 of 4Hunch60%
Eight of eight times since 2015, MPs on the committee passed the Home Office's own changes before their last meeting.
History100%Hunch93%
Three of seven times, a ruling for Indonesian citizens against their government stood; three times a higher court overturned it.
History43%
In all four votes since 2006, the island’s parliament chose the more experienced candidate as Chief Minister.
History4 of 4Hunch62%
In three of five such court fights a judge stopped the government two days after the hearing, and twice it took months.
History3 of 5Hunch57%
In two of four open governor races in a year when pay trailed prices, the president's party kept the office.
History2 of 4Hunch71%
In four of eight midterm races where a House member ran for an open seat of the president's party, the party kept it.
History50%Hunch53%
In six of eight races after a senator died and a party member was appointed, the president's party kept the seat.
History75%Hunch80%
Four times a blocking country gave way, and the EU opened the talks each time, but only once within a month.
History2 of 4Hunch74%
Five of five times the government kept its early release plan for the first six weeks; three of them had set waves and kept every date.
History5 of 5Hunch90%
In six of seven early Spanish elections, right-wing parties won fewer than 176 seats, and once they won a majority.
History86%Hunch30%
In five of six London races the party's favourite made the final list; once, in 2023, the party left him off.
History83%Hunch88%
In four of five state votes on a new tax, voters scrapped it, and once they kept it.
History4 of 5Hunch20%
In eight of ten midterms since 1942, the president's party lost more than 15 House seats, and twice it lost fewer.
History80%Hunch68%
In two of five such campaigns the ad came down, both within four days. In the other three it stayed until the vote.
History2 of 5Hunch8%
In none of five court fights since 2017 did a top court stop a mass removal of voters while it was under way.
History0 of 5Hunch4%
In four of six resignations under pressure in Iran, parliament approved a new minister within three months.
History67%Hunch63%
In four of four Irish public pay strikes, the second strike day went ahead; talks came 7 to 13 days after the first.
History4 of 4Hunch84%
Only one of six countries whose consulate was closed in reply hit back with its own closure or expulsions within 30 days.
History17%Hunch24%
In four of five races like this since 1918, the senator from the president's party lost the seat; one kept it.
History2 of 5Hunch15%
In four of five such fights, a member of Congress who lost this appeal asked a higher court before any trial.
History3 of 3Hunch80%
In two of eight Senate races since 2010, a candidate who beat the party leaders' choice in the primary went on to win, and six lost.
History50%Hunch44%
In seven of ten open Senate seats like this, the party opposite the president kept the seat, and three times it lost it.
History70%Hunch77%
In nine of the ten most recent special midterm elections, the appointed senator from the president's party won.
History90%Hunch48%
In nine of ten such open races since 1922, the president's party kept the governor's job.
History90%Hunch44%
Four of five exiled politicians came home within a month after a court lifted the warrant against them.
History4 of 5Hunch58%
In one of eight such arrests, police charged or cleared an elected politician within 89 days; seven times they had not decided.
History12%Hunch27%
Three of eight times after a failed pick, Romania's parliament backed the next one, and five times that pick withdrew or lost.
History38%Hunch33%
In six of nine close midterm Senates since 1914, the president's party kept control, and three times it lost it.
History67%Hunch40%
All four leaders pushed out by term limits since 2008 got the post they wanted from parliament.
History4 of 4Hunch21%
In eight of nine such elections since 1942, a long-serving governor from the president's party won again.
History89%Hunch73%
In three of four cases where a judge stopped a government building project, the government asked a higher court to lift the ban.
History4 of 4Hunch58%
Three of five times a big foreign power openly backed one side in a close final vote, that side won, and twice it lost.
History3 of 5Hunch27%
In seven of eight cases where a party's main fund rushed late money into a seat it had kept for years, the party kept the seat.
History88%Hunch78%
In one of four similar cases the budget passed before the year's end, and twice the government fell during the budget.
History1 of 4Hunch30%
Twice in four similar Senate races, party money came back after being pulled, and all four candidates still lost.
History2 of 4
Seven members of Congress fell ill after saying they would retire, and none of them left office early.
History0%Hunch2%
In one of four British reform cases where no chair was named on the day, a chair came within a month.
History2 of 4Hunch42%
In one of four past cases the country making the threat took its named step within a month. Malaysia took 63 days.
History2 of 4Hunch58%
In eight similar Canadian elections the party leading the last polls formed the government each time, and won a majority in six.
History100%Hunch84%
In five of six similar votes where polls favoured staying, staying won. The exception was Catalonia, where many stay voters kept away.
History83%Hunch88%
In five of six cases, a new leader brought a delayed reform to parliament by the date they set. The sixth came a day late.
History83%Hunch76%
In four of seven similar cases, parliament approved the decree. Every decree Junts opposed since going into opposition fell.
History2 of 3Hunch40%
In one of six years when someone pressed the Nobel committee openly, the prize went to the side that pressed.
History17%Hunch7%
In three of eight German states where a party came first without a majority, its candidate became head of government.
History38%Hunch38%
One of five Swiss votes since 2012 on plans to limit the government's hand abroad passed: the 2014 immigration quotas.
History1 of 5Hunch20%
None of Bulgaria's seven presidential elections since 1992 ended in the first round.
History0%Hunch10%
In five of Israel's last ten elections, the leader of the biggest party headed a new government within 60 days of the vote.
History50%Hunch35%
In five of seven similar Italian decrees since 2007, the president signed within a week of the cabinet vote.
History71%Hunch75%
None of nine past prime ministers who took over with a safe majority called an election this early in office.
History0%Hunch4%
In five of seven cases, a group of countries lifted its penalty within five and a half months of a new government taking over.
History71%Hunch80%
In seven similar elections, only one party in power won a majority of seats on its own.
History14%Hunch42%
In five of seven such visits, the US delayed or softened the penalty it held over the visitor.
History71%Hunch65%
None of the eight purchase deals Donald Trump announced before signing was signed within a month; two were signed within 90 days.
History25%Hunch18%
In three of four UN contests since 1991, the leader after the third vote was picked within a month; in all four within 38 days.
History3 of 4Hunch20%
In seven of eight US aviation or shipping restrictions with a named start date since 2018, the rule came into force on that day.
History88%Hunch92%
In six of eight big UK infrastructure breakdowns since 2019, a department or a regulator ordered a new review within a month.
History75%
In two of five similar Spanish cases, the trial opened within 11 months. The two closest took over a year.
History2 of 5Hunch24%
In four of the five Brazilian first rounds since 2006, the gap between the top two came in smaller than the last polls showed.
History4 of 5Hunch60%
6 of 11 appeal losses in immigration cases since 2025 reached the Supreme Court within 17 days. The record stops at day 21.
History55%Hunch25%
All seven German state votes since 2023 with a final-poll lead of 3 points or more went to the poll leader.
History100%Hunch80%
Since 1949, 14 state elections cost a chancellor's party 10 points or more mid-term. One chancellor left within 90 days.
History7%Hunch10%
In 2 of the 4 measured cases since 2021, a UK minister named a new punishment out loud and a paper followed inside a month.
History4 of 4Hunch34%
Two of the last seven offshore field decisions were signed inside 79 days. The other five took 265 days or more.
History29%Hunch33%
Three of the last five Romanian nominees won confidence inside ten days. No vote in the record came later than day nine.
History3 of 5Hunch30%
2 of the last 8 outlets cut off by the US federal executive sued over access. The two suits came on day 10 and day 50.
History25%Hunch45%
Four of the last eight programmes in this position got new money inside 72 days. Counted by decision, it is three of six.
History50%Hunch20%
6 of the last 8 cash promises made with no mechanism got one. Five of the six arrived by day four, the last on day 33.
History75%Hunch12%
Three of the last seven autumn inquiries reported inside 90 days. The other four ran on to late January.
History43%Hunch32%
In 2 of the last 12 US sanctions laws an executive action cited the new law within 30 days of the signature.
History17%Hunch24%
In 5 of the last 11 Gulf arms notifications the Senate held a recorded vote within the 30-day review.
History45%Hunch38%
In 6 of the last 9 Swedish elections that changed the prime minister, the new one took office on day 19 exactly.
History67%Hunch60%
Four of the last eight reports from this committee had the department back in the room within 41 days. Full record: 14 of 28.
History54%Hunch45%
Of the last 6 first UK-US summit talks, 1 ended in a joint statement that day and 2 within a month.
History17%Hunch16%
1 of the last 8 countries hit with US visa bans on officials hit back with its own ban or an expulsion within 31 days.
History71%Hunch78%
323 of the last 385 government bills reached committee stage within ninety days of their Commons first reading.
History84%Hunch80%
Six of the last eight host governments pressed for a waiver, a return or a charge within 30 days. The two that did not were British.
History75%Hunch30%
Seven of the last eight Russian strikes near Western visitors or Western targets led to new UK sanctions or aid within 14 days.
History88%Hunch72%
Two of the last six EU-UK talks that were delayed got a firm new date within 31 days.
History33%Hunch35%
Two of three protest series that came back for a second weekend went on to a third with arrests. Knowsley in 2023 did not.
History2 of 3Hunch45%
Four of the last eight ministerial admissions that a target would be missed were followed by a formal rewrite within 60 days.
History50%Hunch35%
Kyiv publicly claimed a Russian refinery or oil-site strike within 14 days in two of five such asks since 2022; both were in 2026.
History2 of 5
One of seven assisted dying defeats since 1969 was followed within 31 days by a named next bill; the other six went quiet for months.
History14%Hunch30%
None of the 8 big rival donations since 2001 led to a cap on donations within 31 days.
History0%Hunch25%
Four of the last eight US interventions on Northern Ireland drew a reply in the PM's or NI Secretary's own name within seven days.
History50%Hunch45%
Four of the last six byelections with a party leader on the ballot cleared 40% turnout, and none of them passed 51%.
History67%Hunch48%
Two of the last six Gulf openings to Iran produced an agreement within 30 days; the other four ran on for months or lapsed.
History33%Hunch25%
Five of the last eight public interventions by an MI5 chief were followed within 30 days by a security bill or order in Parliament.
History62%Hunch55%
Eight of the last eight major games hit by heavy weather at their venues moved, rescheduled or abandoned an event within days.
History100%Hunch80%
Six of the last eight regimes that struck an opposition party from a national ballot posted a bigger ruling-party result next.
History75%Hunch50%
Governing parties held two of the last eight seats they defended at a byelection in the first three years of a parliament.
History25%Hunch65%
Four of the last six home secretaries who told police to use existing powers announced new powers or a review inside 30 days.
History67%Hunch62%
In all seven system failures at national air traffic operators since 2014, the chief executive was still in post a month later.
History100%Hunch80%
Two of the last eight UK criminal inquiries into party or campaign funding produced an arrest or interview within 30 days.
History25%Hunch25%
Three of eight Duma elections since 1993 gave the largest party 300 seats or more; all three were United Russia.
History38%Hunch80%
Eight of the last eight German state elections with a ten-point final-poll lead ended with that party first.
History100%
Four of the last eight Swedish governments kept the seat count and stayed in office at the election; 2010 and 2018 were the close ones, the last by a single seat.
History50%Hunch40%
Two of the four ministerial claims of a fall in crossings since 2023 were matched by the following thirty days.
Two of the five local levies promised by UK governments since 2007 reached a Bill within twelve months.
Three of the four times ministers have narrowed a release scheme after announcing it, the timetable held.
Four of the five conscience bills of this kind since 1964 cleared second reading; the one that failed was assisted dying, in 2015.
Three of the last three Royal Navy capabilities retired ahead of their replacements left a gap measured in years.
Four of the last six times the drug advisers argued against tighter control, ministers overruled them.
History67%Hunch22%
Three of the last four pledged British measures on Israel landed inside about eight weeks. A settlement trade ban never has.
Two of the last eight fiscal events held within three months of an Ofgem cap rise carried a new measure for household energy bills.
History25%Hunch59%
Seven of the last eight councils asking to break the council tax limit were allowed to, by between 1.75 and 4 points.
History12%Hunch20%
Four of the last four British firsts for Ukraine drew a threat from Moscow, and none was followed by an attack on Britain.
Three of the last four national security convictions were followed by sentence within a fortnight. The 47 democrats waited six months.
History3 of 4Hunch55%
Pyongyang escalated within a year after three of the four stand-downs. Only the 1994 freeze held, and it died in 2002.
History3 of 4Hunch55%
Senior officials fell within days every time investigators moved. None of the four crises shifted the election question.
History4 of 4Hunch66%
17 of 19 MPs who resigned to re-fight their seat since 1982 won it back; both losers faced a major-party machine.
History89%Hunch89%
Two of three Home Office status errors since 2014 were corrected; the one it kept defending, TOEIC, never was.
History2 of 3Hunch22%
All four of the last four early Labour revolts since 1997 failed on the day; three of the four won the substance back later.
History4 of 4Hunch72%
Every pre-agreed NATO declaration since 2016 has been endorsed, through Trump's first term and Vilnius.
History100%Hunch91%
Every stronghold Russia claimed did eventually fall, but the first claim ran days or weeks ahead of the fact.
History0 of 4Hunch58%
Almost every Trump tariff deadline ended in deferral or a deal. The 2018 steel tariffs landed on schedule.
History4 of 5
Nearly every recent standards case ended with the MP out of the Commons within a year. Reaching a verdict took months.
History4 of 5
Most headline German reform packages since 2003 became law. The one that failed took the government down with it.
History3 of 4
Every steel nationalisation put to Parliament has passed. Two of the earlier settlements were later unwound.
History3 of 3
Labour has won every Greater Manchester mayoral contest, never below 63%. Every one of those wins was Burnham's.
History3 of 3
Every US-Iran Gulf confrontation since 1988 stopped short of full war. That streak broke in 2026.
History4 of 4
Every major immigration bill since 1999 cleared Second Reading. Rebellion size is the real variable.
History100%Hunch91%
NHS pay deals always ended the immediate strikes. Only the most recent settlement saw strike dates return inside a year.
History1 of 5Hunch6%
Every package has been adopted in the end. Four of the last five were held by one capital for five to ten weeks.
History100%
Most London summers never touch 35C, and the record spikes have landed in late July or August, not in June.
History30%Hunch61%
Every facial recognition expansion went ahead despite challenge. One court defeat forced a pause and a rewrite.
History3 of 4
No modern war-powers resolution has halted a US military operation. Vetoes held and the fighting carried on.
History0 of 4Hunch9%
Most mid-term handovers ended in coronation. A ballot came only where a rival cleared the nomination threshold.
History2 of 5Hunch24%
Every razor-thin runoff since 1994 put the declared winner in office on the constitutional date.
History4 of 4Hunch94%
All four early-year borrowing overshoots since 2012 were still there a month later. Three of the four ended in autumn tax rises.
History4 of 4Hunch80%
Named PLA exercises follow Taipei's political moments, not its training calendar. No Han Kuang cycle drew one.
History0 of 5
In two of Kosovo's last five elections a government won a confidence vote within two months; the worst took 199 days.
G7 pledges with a named mechanism and a hard number delivered. The umbrella initiatives did not. Évian is non-binding.
History2 of 4Hunch27%
Half the censure collapses since 1989 were replaced within four weeks. Both long vacuums saw nominations fail.
History2 of 4Hunch34%
Most recent accession processes stalled for years after opening. Member-state politics decided it, not readiness.
History2 of 5
No resignation over a spending settlement reversed the number. The one partial reversal took a year and a war.
History4 of 4Hunch37%
No multi-stage Israel-Hamas arrangement since 2012 reached its second phase. Each first phase partly delivered.
History0 of 4Hunch17%
No London micromobility scheme has moved from legal power to published rules in under eleven months.
History0 of 3Hunch27%
Only one welfare-savings package since 1997 delivered as announced. The rest were reversed, diluted or outgrown.
History1 of 5Hunch20%
Most recent Tube disputes came back with further strike dates, though two settled without another walkout.
History3 of 5Hunch48%
Every Section 301 proposal since 2018 became a final action. Three of the four were softened or delayed on the way.
History4 of 4
Only one rough sleeping pledge since 1998 hit its target. Both counts reported in 2026 have shown falls.
History1 of 4
Nearly every first defection was followed by another MP within six months. The one exception ran into an election.
History4 of 5