The UK Budget is on Wednesday 28 October, a day after the government borrowed at its highest five-year rate since 2008. In four of five past Budgets like this, the pound kept its Budget day direction to Friday, and once it turned.
History4 of 5Hunch76%
Two of seven times from 1972 to 1981, a US president extended cheaper food imports before the end date in the act. The other five times the new act came after it, 18 to 84 days later.
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Only once in six such talks since 2018 did a deal come by the date Donald Trump named, with Canada in 2018. Twice his date passed with no deal, and three times he named no date.
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Lloyds, HSBC, NatWest and Santander report results next week, Nationwide on 19 November. In three of nine past job cuts linked to new technology a rival followed, always from abroad, and six times none did.
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In all seven quarters since 2003 when a war pushed up oil prices, the first US growth figure was 2% a year or less. This time an Atlanta Federal Reserve model expects 3.5%.
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Russia's central bank cut its rate ten times to 14%, then kept it in September and October. Eight of ten times after a pause like this, it kept the rate at the next meeting, and twice it cut by half a point.
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In five of six buyout offers for German companies at 40% or more above the old price, the buyer got its minimum first time.
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In three of seven record first share sales in India, the shares ended day one above the sale price, and four ended below.
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Four of five times after a first move like this, Turkey's central bank moved the same way at the next meeting, and once it waited.
History4 of 5Hunch78%
In four of ten months when a war abroad pushed UK petrol up, yearly inflation rose, and in six it did not.
History40%Hunch57%
Seven of nine times a government cut fuel tax until a set date, it kept a cut going after it, and twice it let the cut end.
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Four of nine times MSCI planned in writing to move a market down, it did so on time. Twice it was late, three times it stepped back.
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One of four times EPA finished delaying its own chemical ban before the next date, and three times it finished late.
History1 of 4Hunch31%
Three of nine times the SEC finished a plan on shareholder votes within 287 days, and six times it took longer or dropped it.
History33%Hunch49%
In all six years since 2020, ministers took the Low Pay Commission's advice on minimum pay in full, with no rate changed.
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In five of six decisions on these rules, Ofgem did what it had proposed, and once it changed course after objections.
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Six of seven times, the last figures before a Budget kept borrowing on the same side of the forecast as a month before, and once not.
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Six of seven times Ofwat gave its final word on water penalties within 49 days of the draft, and once it took 72 days.
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Eight of ten times both early months of a quarter grew, the first quarterly figure was 0.4% or more, and twice it was lower.
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Eight of nine late EU delays to a law's start became law in time, and once the delay came 24 days late.
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One of six times councils asked for help with debts before a spending plan, the next plan promised a share, and five times it did not.
History17%Hunch11%
Only one of four shops that stopped online sales after a hack had them all back within 26 days.
History1 of 4Hunch41%
Three of five makers that stopped sales through a seller after buyers were harmed cut it off the same day, and two paused.
History3 of 5Hunch24%
In three of four times a chancellor dropped a tax rise before a Budget, the next one kept to it, and once the tax rose another way.
History3 of 4Hunch79%
In five of seven months when a war abroad pushed petrol up after two rises, UK inflation rose again, and twice it fell.
History71%Hunch89%
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said on 7 October that world government debt will soon pass 100% of output. In four of six recent October reports, the fund did not bring that year closer.
History67%Hunch54%
In five of seven years after a summer rise, the IMF kept or raised its UK forecast in October, and twice it cut it.
History71%Hunch56%
In all five meetings where the IMF ministers' text named a war and energy prices, there was no joint text.
History5 of 5Hunch88%
In four of eight times a government eased oil sanctions to cut prices, diesel was cheaper four weeks later, and in four it cost more.
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Eight of ten times after such a warning, Canada’s central bank kept its rate at the next meeting, and twice it raised it.
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In three of five such firings the member stayed out, and twice the Supreme Court ruled the firing unlawful.
History3 of 5
In none of six such decisions did a Budget bring the date forward, though three times a separate decision did.
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Four of six times lawmakers limited these clauses with a pay level or time limit, and twice they banned them outright.
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While a war kept energy prices high, the IMF cut this year's world forecast in four of six reports, kept it once and raised it once.
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Nine of the last ten years, every winner worked in the US; in 2025 one of the three worked in France and Britain.
History90%Hunch84%
In three of five such jumps since 1975, the rate was still above its old high 23 days later, and twice it fell back below.
History3 of 5Hunch49%
In three of four such UK plans, the office dropped or paused it before the start date, and once it went ahead.
History3 of 4Hunch42%
Six of eight such UK deals finished by the date the buyer first named; two finished late, and none was called off.
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In six of seven such first rises, a second rise came at the next meeting; once the bank waited nine months.
History86%Hunch80%
Two of four times a failing contractor faced a dated review, the government ended or did not renew the deal within eight weeks.
History2 of 4Hunch53%
In two of five first sales of a new kind of government debt, the government met the date it had named.
History2 of 5Hunch52%
Six of seven times lenders raised prices before an expected Bank rise, five-year fixed rates were higher after the meeting.
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Two of four governments whose ally already taxed Chinese cars announced their own tariffs within about three months.
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In four of six US decisions to release emergency oil during a crisis abroad, petrol cost more four weeks later.
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In six of eight past Budgets with pump prices near a record, the Treasury put off, cut or split a planned fuel duty rise.
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Five of six times some members wanted a rise and markets expected one, the Bank raised rates next time; once it waited.
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Two of four times rich countries released emergency oil together, UK diesel was cheaper three weeks later, and twice it cost more.
History2 of 4Hunch30%
In none of four past Budgets did the Treasury raise the tax on the part of an industry that had warned of closures.
History0 of 4Hunch40%
In four of five past slumps in goods that take years to make, more than one firm failed. The second came months after the first.
History25%Hunch22%
In seven of eight past cases, a court order freezing land for a big state-backed project still stood 19 days later.
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In four of six past US offers to lend oil from its emergency reserve, companies took more than half. In June they took almost none.
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In two of ten fights for an investment trust board, the activist got seats: once by a vote, once by a deal.
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In none of ten cases where a water or energy company got its biggest penalty yet did a regulator punish it again within 30 days.
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Six of nine times a bank kept rates the same after saying they might be high enough, and three times it raised them.
History67%Hunch55%
In two of five cases where a company's largest shareholder backed a buyer the board had refused, the board then recommended the offer.
History2 of 5Hunch45%
In all four similar British takeovers, shareholders backed the deal once the rival bidder had dropped out.
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In all five similar rollbacks, opponents who had promised to sue were in court by the day after the rule came out.
History5 of 5Hunch84%
In four of five past cases where a buyer asked an exporter to send less under a named threat, a limit came within 89 days.
History4 of 5Hunch80%
In five of six similar cases, the Supreme Court's first step was to ask the government for advice.
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In two of four past cases where a plane maker found a fault while its yearly target stood, it cut the target.
History1 of 3Hunch33%
In three of five big US share sales with strong reported demand, the price was set above the first range.
History3 of 5Hunch60%
In four of five early exits from the ECB's top board, ministers backed a successor within 46 days.
History4 of 5Hunch40%
In six past cases where the US threatened tariffs over a tax like this, two countries dropped it.
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In eight UK cases where a fund like this ran out early, the next Budget added new money only once.
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In five past UK cases where sellers had to show their prices, an official review later found lower prices only once.
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In seven of eight cases where a leader or his government threatened their own industry over a price, a rule or a deal followed.
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In four of eight UK plant stops blamed on energy costs since 2013, the government announced new energy help within a month.
History75%Hunch60%
Four of ten US media and telecom deals closed within ten days of settling the antitrust case against them.
History40%Hunch60%
Founders and long chairs left the seat 13 times at S&P 100 firms since 2010. The shares were lower four weeks on five times.
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The Fed has changed direction 11 times since 1994. In 8 of them it moved the same way again at the very next meeting.
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Three of the last nine antitrust suits against an announced merger were over inside 232 days. The two fastest both settled.
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None of the last 7 wage-led pension rises was confirmed within a month. 6 of 7 were confirmed within 90 days.
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Five of the last eight bills backed by both parties and blocked this way passed the Senate within 31 days, six within 90.
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Five of the last eight central bank decisions taken under pressure to slow bond sales cut the pace, dropped a bucket or ended sales.
History62%Hunch70%
Four of the last eight tariff promises Donald Trump made out loud were signed into an order within 30 days. The Scotch promise took 85.
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Five of the last eight MPC decisions taken after a 10% oil jump were holds; the three raises all came inside a cycle already running.
History62%Hunch78%
In four of the last five state takeovers, new public money followed within a month of the state naming its own board.
History4 of 5Hunch48%
In five of the six loosenings of UK mortgage rules since 2013, approvals rose within three months. This time they fell.
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Three of the last six US diesel record runs cleared 4 per cent within four weeks. All six set a further record in that window.
History50%Hunch60%
Five of the last eight moves back above $100 unwound inside 30 days; the three that stuck were in 2011 and 2026.
History62%Hunch70%
Five of the last eight times a Bank governor warned at a rate press conference or a select committee that inflation would rise, the next core CPI print was higher; six of nine on the full record.
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Six of the last eight comparable UK car investment pledges drew a public government mark within 30 days; nine of eleven overall.
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One of the last seven first designation rounds widened within 90 days. The US FSOC added a company 73 days after its first two.
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Five of the last eight US import restrictions on an allied economy drew a retaliatory announcement from the target within 30 days.
History62%Hunch58%
Two of the last eight times the ten-year average set a ten-year high, it was higher again two months later.
History25%Hunch36%
Four of the seven Gulf attacks since 2019 that landed before an OPEC+ decision were followed by an output increase.
History57%Hunch38%
Four of the five household energy supply mergers on the CMA record since 2003 cleared at Phase 1.
In two of the four ECB tightening cycles since 1999 a third rise followed the second within eight weeks.
The Bank of Japan raised rates at the next meeting after two of the six yen-buying runs since 1998, and both were the two most recent.
History33%Hunch72%
One of the four board removals the courts tested in 2025 left the official in office a month later, and it was Cook's.
Six of the last seven caps announced after an October cap came in higher; the one fall, into April 2020, was £17.
History86%Hunch72%
Seven of the last eight autumn fiscal events carried a business rates measure for retail, hospitality, leisure or pubs.
History88%Hunch78%
All three verified cases of a water company running out of money since 1989 avoided special administration.
Four of the last eight times net debt fell from a record, the next month set a new one; over the series since 1993 it is 22 of 62.
History50%Hunch48%
Three of the last four times borrowing ran above forecast into a fiscal event, the chancellor answered with tax rises.
History3 of 4Hunch71%
Two of the last eight times inflation turned up after a run without a rise, the next month printed higher again; over the full record since 1989 it is 16 of 38.
History25%Hunch35%
Three of the last five routs peaked within days of the intervention, and only when the intervention changed real supply or demand.
History3 of 5Hunch40%
All four of the last four new Fed chairs met an early market test by tightening or standing firm at the next decision, never by easing.
History4 of 4Hunch84%
Three of the last five Frasers stake-building campaigns ended in ownership; the two that failed met a bloc they could not out-vote.
History3 of 5Hunch56%
In three of the last four episodes of falling vacancies and cooling pay, the MPC's next decision was a hold or a cut. The exception had pay growth twice today's.
History3 of 4Hunch85%
Four of the last eight rebounds of 0.3 per cent or more after a flat or falling month were followed by growth; over the full series since 1997 it is 40 of 68.
History50%Hunch55%
Levies came at a new government's first Budget or in a crisis; refusals came mid-term. October is a first Budget.
History3 of 5Hunch60%
Two of the last five leaked UK pharma megadeals produced an agreed offer, and all five reached a definitive answer inside six weeks.
History2 of 5Hunch40%
All four of the last four heavily discounted UK retail brand sales since 2018 left a smaller store estate inside eighteen months.
History4 of 4Hunch18%
Five of the six times approvals bounced after a fall of 10 per cent or more, the next month printed higher again; the exception was the winter of 2004-05.
History83%Hunch68%
In two of four Gulf supply shocks since 1991 the premium was gone within weeks; in the other two it lingered nine months or more.
History2 of 4Hunch57%
Most big down-years since 1985 extended into a second year of decline; two of them snapped back instead.
History3 of 5Hunch56%
All but one record-heavy first half finished the year higher still. The exception, 1987, ended in a crash.
History4 of 5Hunch47%
Most sub-100,000 payroll months proved to be noise from strikes or weather. Two preceded recession within a year.
History2 of 5Hunch63%
The two biggest redress programmes ended several times above their first estimates. Only the swaps scheme was near plan.
History2 of 3
Four of the last five autumn fiscal events that followed a summer warning raised taxes, from 2021 to 2025.
History4 of 5Hunch78%
Half the previous 50% drawdowns bottomed near the halfway mark; the others ran on to 77-84% from the peak.
History2 of 4
June momentum carried into December twice in the last four years and broke twice. Mortgage rates decided it each time.
History2 of 4Hunch36%
Half the 20% falls from a gold record were reclaimed within two years. The rest opened bear markets lasting decades.
History2 of 4Hunch33%
Sterling was higher three months on in two of the last five prime-ministerial resignations.
History2 of 5Hunch40%
In two of the last four episodes of hawkish MPC dissent the committee hiked within two meetings. In the other two it cut instead.
History2 of 4
All but one incoming chair facing price pressure tightened within two meetings. Warsh spent his first on a hold.
History4 of 5
In most modern energy-shock episodes the first retreat held. The exception, 1975, ran to a second wave peaking near 27%.
History1 of 4
Only 2022's energy-shock cycle delivered a second hike at the next meeting. The others paused for at least two meetings.
History1 of 4Hunch31%
Each of the 3 long-gilt spikes before May retraced within about two months, but each peak stood higher than the one before.
History3 of 3
Three of the four thousand-point milestones the FTSE 100 has crossed since 1998 were followed by a fall back below the line within a year; only 9,000, in July 2025, held.
History3 of 4Hunch60%
Finance03 Nov
Seven of eight times Australia's central bank raised rates twice in a row and said nothing about more, it paused. Once it rose.
History88%Hunch82%Resolves 8 Dec 2026
Finance03 Nov
Three of five times the UK factory survey picked up while oil was far dearer, official output rose that month. Twice it fell.
History3 of 5Hunch62%Resolves 11 Dec 2026
Finance03 Nov
Seven of ten times UK approvals fell twice in a row as some Bank members wanted a rate rise, they fell again. Three times they rose.
History70%Hunch76%Resolves 30 Nov 2026
Finance02 Nov
Five of nine times Nvidia reported soon after a tech sell-off, its shares fell over 6% that month, and four times they did not.
History56%Hunch49%Resolves 30 Nov 2026
Finance31 Oct
Three of five such food deals still open at this point passed the CMA check with no conditions, one was too small, one hit a problem.
History3 of 5Hunch56%Resolves 11 Nov 2026
Finance31 Oct
In none of seven such years did US petrol rise 10% by New Year, and all seven stayed below that year's high.
History0%Hunch20%Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Finance31 Oct
Five of six times after a weak month like this, US unemployment did not fall in the next report, and once it fell.
History83%Hunch69%Resolves 6 Nov 2026
Finance30 Oct
Two of six times the US punished a big North Korean crypto theft within nine weeks, and four times it did not.
History33%Hunch19%Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Finance30 Oct
Seven of eight times after a rise and a pause, the Bank of Japan kept its rate at the next meeting, and once it raised it.
History88%Hunch48%Resolves 18 Dec 2026
Finance30 Oct
Four of five such years, the first figure for the year was no lower than three quarters showed, and in 2020 it was lower.
History4 of 5Hunch75%Resolves 1 Feb 2027
Finance30 Oct
Three of six times oil hit a months-long high in a war, US oil rose 5.5% more within five weeks, and three times it did not.
History50%Hunch55%Resolves 30 Nov 2026
Finance30 Oct
Four of five times big tech results pulled US shares down near a record, the index ended the quarter higher, and once lower.
History2 of 5Hunch31%Resolves 31 Dec 2026