US core prices rose 0.3% in August and in September. Will October show 0.2%?
US core prices, without food and energy, rose 0.3% in August and in September. The October figure comes out on 25 November.
What happened
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for September increased 0.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.
US core prices rose 0.3% in September, the same as in August, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said on . Core prices leave out food and energy. All prices together rose 0.5% in the month and 3.6% over a year, and core prices rose 3.1% over a year.
Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays,
This price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the measure the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, uses for its 2% inflation goal. On the Fed kept its main interest rate at 3.75% to 4% and said “Inflation remains elevated”. Two of the 12 voting members wanted a rise. Its next meeting is on 8 and .
Price rises this year have come mostly from the US-Israel war with Iran, which sent energy prices up. Since the war began, petrol prices have risen by over 40%, and new taxes on imports have pushed up the price of many goods. Matthew Middleton, a White House spokesman, said the President “has always been clear about temporary disruptions as a result of the Iran conflict”.
The BEA publishes the October figure on at 8:30 am Eastern time, 13:30 UTC. On the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its consumer price index for October. Its core measure also rose 0.3% in September, but only 2.6% over a year.
Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (2), Federal Reserve (2, 3), The Guardian (2), Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Pattern
We looked for cases where the BEA reported the same core price rise two months in a row, while energy prices jumped and core prices were up more than 2% over a year. We found five such months since 2000, out of 315 monthly reports. Three came in 2007 and 2008, and two in 2022. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; US Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Show the other 3 cases
The Read
The past points away from 0.2%. In four of the five months, core prices rose at least as much as the month before, and only in did they slow by 0.1 points. Each time, core PCE was no higher than core consumer prices for the same month, and in four of five the figure for the month before was left as it was. On the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, part of the US central bank, put October core PCE at 0.26% in its early estimate, right on the line between 0.2% and 0.3%.
There are reasons for doubt. All five months come from two periods of high energy prices, 2007 to 2008 and 2022, and the same office made every figure. In 2026 core PCE grows faster over a year than core consumer prices, 3.1% against 2.6%, and in six of the last ten months it rose more in the month. August was first published at 0.2% and only later raised to 0.3%.
Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (2, 3, 4), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, The Guardian, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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