Politics04 Nov
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Nine of ten times, a president's party kept an open governor's job in a state it had long run, and once it lost.
90%NoResolved 04 Nov 2026
Accuracy
Every market carries two probabilities: the record, and our forecast. Both are measured against the outcome on 704 qualified markets resolved.
71%Hunch forecast, on 704 resolved markets
61%History, on the 388 markets that carry a pattern figure
791resolved markets
How to read this
Each point is a month. The green line is the Hunch forecast on every resolved market it covers; the gold line is the historical figure, on the smaller set of markets that carry one. The number under each month is how many markets the Hunch line rests on. The dashed line is 50%, which is what guessing gives you. The chart shows months with at least six scored Hunch forecasts.
Of the 791 resolved markets, 704 carry a Hunch forecast that points one way, and 388 carry a historical figure of their own. Multiple-choice markets are not scored, and neither is a historical figure that lands on 50, because it points nowhere.
November 2026
Politics04 Nov
Will Democrats lose the Maine governor race on 3 November?
In all five Maine elections since 1974 where the governor could not run again after two terms in a row, the governor's party lost the job: three times to the other main party, twice to an independent.
5 of 5NoResolved 04 Nov 2026
Politics04 Nov
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio governor election on 3 November?
In nine of ten such open races since 1922, the president's party kept the governor's job.
90%NoResolved 04 Nov 2026
Politics04 Nov
Will Greg Abbott win the Texas governor election on 3 November?
In eight of nine such elections since 1942, a long-serving governor from the president's party won again.
89%NoResolved 04 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Dapo Akande be elected a judge of the UN's top court?
Four of four new candidates from permanent Security Council countries since 2005 won on the first day, and none lost.
4 of 4YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will all five UN top court seats be filled on 3 November?
Four of four new candidates from permanent Security Council countries since 2005 won on the first day, and none lost.
43%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will France's candidate Alabrune be elected to the UN's top court?
Four of four new candidates from permanent Security Council countries since 2005 won on the first day, and none lost.
4 of 4YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Akande win a General Assembly majority in round one on 3 Nov?
Four of four new candidates from permanent Security Council countries since 2005 won on the first day, and none lost.
4 of 4YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Democrat Peggy Flanagan win Minnesota's Senate race on 3 Nov?
In all five midterm races from 2010 to 2022 where a party that did not hold the presidency defended an open Senate seat, in a state its rivals had not won for eight years, it kept the seat.
5 of 5YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Tafoya join a Trump event in Minnesota before 3 Nov?
In all five midterm races from 2010 to 2022 where a party that did not hold the presidency defended an open Senate seat, in a state its rivals had not won for eight years, it kept the seat.
NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Bo French fall short of the Republicans' 2024 Railroad margin?
All nine times from 2013 to 2024 that a party ran a candidate known for remarks against minorities, for a seat it had won by 10 points or more, the candidate's lead was smaller.
100%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Bo French lose the Texas Railroad Commission race on 3 Nov?
All nine times from 2013 to 2024 that a party ran a candidate known for remarks against minorities, for a seat it had won by 10 points or more, the candidate's lead was smaller.
33%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Are the Tories ahead of Reform in YouGov's first post-Budget poll?
Five of nine times an opposition party that had just moved into second place behind the governing party was still ahead of its rival in the same pollster's next poll. Four times it fell back.
56%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Is Reform on 21% or more in YouGov's first post-Budget poll?
Five of nine times an opposition party that had just moved into second place behind the governing party was still ahead of its rival in the same pollster's next poll. Four times it fell back.
YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Is Labour on 27% or more in YouGov's first post-Budget poll?
Five of nine times an opposition party that had just moved into second place behind the governing party was still ahead of its rival in the same pollster's next poll. Four times it fell back.
NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Finance03 Nov
Will Apple shares fall on 3 Nov after Ternus's first results?
Seven of nine times since 2000 that a new chief executive of a big US company gave the first results after a long-serving leader, the shares went down, and twice they went up.
78%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Finance03 Nov
Will the US and Canada agree a tariff-cutting deal by 3 November?
One of six times since 2018 that Donald Trump was in tariff talks with Canada or Mexico after they hit back, a deal came by the date he named. Twice his date passed with no deal, and three times he set none.
17%NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Finance03 Nov
Will the White House cut more tariffs on Canada before 3 November?
One of six times since 2018 that Donald Trump was in tariff talks with Canada or Mexico after they hit back, a deal came by the date he named. Twice his date passed with no deal, and three times he set none.
NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will the Associated Press name who controls the Senate by 4 Nov?
In four of five US Senate elections since 2002 where control could depend on a race that might go to a second round, the majority was named within 15 days. In 2020 it took 64 days.
3 of 5YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Florida's Amendment 3 get more Yes than No votes on 3 Nov?
Six of nine property tax cuts that Florida lawmakers put to voters at general elections from 2016 to 2024 reached 60%. Three got 57% to 59% and failed, all at midterm elections, which fall halfway through a president's term.
100%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Florida voters pass Amendment 3 on property tax on 3 Nov?
Six of nine property tax cuts that Florida lawmakers put to voters at general elections from 2016 to 2024 reached 60%. Three got 57% to 59% and failed, all at midterm elections, which fall halfway through a president's term.
67%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Amendment 3 pass with less than 66% of the vote on 3 Nov?
Six of nine property tax cuts that Florida lawmakers put to voters at general elections from 2016 to 2024 reached 60%. Three got 57% to 59% and failed, all at midterm elections, which fall halfway through a president's term.
0%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Georgia's Senate race be settled on 3 Nov with no runoff?
In all five Georgia Senate races from 1974 to 2010 where the senator's party was out of power and no president was elected that year, one candidate won more than half on election day.
5 of 5YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Jon Ossoff win over 50% of the vote in Georgia on 3 Nov?
In all five Georgia Senate races from 1974 to 2010 where the senator's party was out of power and no president was elected that year, one candidate won more than half on election day.
4 of 5YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Trump extend his pause in the Iran war beyond 3 Nov?
In none of four pauses that an armed group promised until an election did the two sides sign a deal by a month after the vote, and three of the four pauses ended by the group's own word.
NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will James Talarico win the Texas Senate race on 3 November?
Four of five selected elections where a party had held a US Senate seat for at least 30 elapsed years and an opposing candidate led a poll published in the final month ended with the party losing the seat. Kansas in 2014 was the exception.
4 of 5YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will the Texas Senate winner be known by the end of 4 November?
Four of five selected elections where a party had held a US Senate seat for at least 30 elapsed years and an opposing candidate led a poll published in the final month ended with the party losing the seat. Kansas in 2014 was the exception.
4 of 5YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Regional03 Nov
Will Welsh Labour abstain in the Senedd budget vote on 3 Nov?
Five of ten times a party made a budget deal with the Welsh government, it said it would abstain, and five times it said nothing.
50%NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Regional03 Nov
Will the Senedd pass the Welsh mid-year budget on 3 Nov?
Five of ten times a party made a budget deal with the Welsh government, it said it would abstain, and five times it said nothing.
100%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Trump's side pay back any of the $20m ad money by 3 Nov?
Four of five times a US court briefly stopped government spending, it extended the order or made it longer, and once it let it go.
NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Finance03 Nov
Will US diesel average below $6.28 a gallon on 3 Nov?
In four of eight times a government eased oil sanctions to cut prices, diesel was cheaper four weeks later, and in four it cost more.
50%NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will a higher court pause the voter-list ruling by 3 Nov?
In none of four such fights did a higher court pause the ruling within 25 days; three pauses took 45 days or more.
0 of 4NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will a Labour MP vote against the government in the bill committee?
Eight of eight times since 2015, MPs on the committee passed the Home Office's own changes before their last meeting.
0%NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will a judge stop the FCC review of US TV network ABC by 3 Nov?
In three of five such court fights a judge stopped the government two days after the hearing, and twice it took months.
3 of 5NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will the FCC drop its early review of US TV network ABC by 3 Nov?
In three of five such court fights a judge stopped the government two days after the hearing, and twice it took months.
NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Byron Donalds be elected governor of Florida on 3 November?
In two of four open governor races in a year when pay trailed prices, the president's party kept the office.
2 of 4YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will the Florida governor race be won by fewer than 5 points?
In two of four open governor races in a year when pay trailed prices, the president's party kept the office.
1 of 4YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Ashley Hinson win the Iowa Senate race on 3 November?
In four of eight midterm races where a House member ran for an open seat of the president's party, the party kept it.
50%NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Republicans do worse in Iowa's Senate race than in 2020?
In four of eight midterm races where a House member ran for an open seat of the president's party, the party kept it.
75%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Darline Graham win South Carolina's Senate race on 3 November?
In six of eight races after a senator died and a party member was appointed, the president's party kept the seat.
75%NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Republicans do worse in South Carolina's Senate vote than 2020?
In six of eight races after a senator died and a party member was appointed, the president's party kept the seat.
62%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Does Steve Hilton pull his “Just Try It” ad before 3 Nov?
In two of five such campaigns the ad came down, both within four days. In the other three it stayed until the vote.
2 of 5NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Does Steve Hilton lose California's governor race on 3 Nov?
In two of five such campaigns the ad came down, both within four days. In the other three it stayed until the vote.
3 of 5YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Troy Jackson beat Susan Collins in Maine on 3 November?
In four of five races like this since 1918, the senator from the president's party lost the seat; one kept it.
4 of 5YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Does Abdul El-Sayed win Michigan's Senate race on 3 Nov?
In two of eight Senate races since 2010, a candidate who beat the party leaders' choice in the primary went on to win, and six lost.
25%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Senate race on 3 November?
In seven of ten open Senate seats like this, the party opposite the president kept the seat, and three times it lost it.
70%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Pappas beat Sununu by 10 points or more on 3 November?
In seven of ten open Senate seats like this, the party opposite the president kept the seat, and three times it lost it.
50%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Jon Husted win Ohio's special Senate election on 3 November?
In nine of the ten most recent special midterm elections, the appointed senator from the president's party won.
90%NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Ohio's Senate race be decided by fewer than 8 points?
In nine of the ten most recent special midterm elections, the appointed senator from the president's party won.
33%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Republicans keep control of the US Senate on 3 November?
In six of nine close midterm Senates since 1914, the president's party kept control, and three times it lost it.
67%NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Republicans lose 5 or more US Senate seats on 3 November?
In six of nine close midterm Senates since 1914, the president's party kept control, and three times it lost it.
56%YesResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Roger Marshall win the Kansas Senate election on 3 November?
In seven of eight cases where a party's main fund rushed late money into a seat it had kept for years, the party kept the seat.
88%NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Republican Senate groups put ad money back into North Carolina?
Twice in four similar Senate races, party money came back after being pulled, and all four candidates still lost.
2 of 4NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before 3 November?
Seven members of Congress fell ill after saying they would retire, and none of them left office early.
0%NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Finance03 Nov
Will the G7 or IEA announce another oil stock release by 3 November?
Two of four times rich countries released emergency oil together, UK diesel was cheaper three weeks later, and twice it cost more.
NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Finance03 Nov
Will Australia's central bank keep its rate at 4.6% on 3 November?
Six of nine times a bank kept rates the same after saying they might be high enough, and three times it raised them.
67%NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Finance03 Nov
Will the RBA's 3 November statement still allow for a further rise?
Six of nine times a bank kept rates the same after saying they might be high enough, and three times it raised them.
67%NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Politics03 Nov
Will a $5,000 dividend bill be introduced before the midterms?
6 of the last 8 cash promises made with no mechanism got one. Five of the six arrived by day four, the last on day 33.
NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Finance03 Nov
Is the US tariff on Irish whiskey at zero on 3 November 2026?
Four of the last eight tariff promises Donald Trump made out loud were signed into an order within 30 days. The Scotch promise took 85.
NoResolved 03 Nov 2026
Finance02 Nov
Will Apple beat analysts' profit-per-share forecast on 2 Nov?
Seven of nine times since 2000 that a new chief executive of a big US company gave the first results after a long-serving leader, the shares went down, and twice they went up.
44%YesResolved 02 Nov 2026
Finance02 Nov
Will Apple forecast sales growth for October to December on 2 Nov?
Seven of nine times since 2000 that a new chief executive of a big US company gave the first results after a long-serving leader, the shares went down, and twice they went up.
44%YesResolved 02 Nov 2026
Finance02 Nov
Will Apple's iPhone sales for July to September top a year earlier?
Seven of nine times since 2000 that a new chief executive of a big US company gave the first results after a long-serving leader, the shares went down, and twice they went up.
YesResolved 02 Nov 2026
Regional02 Nov
Will the Leeds Bradford half-term air traffic strike be called off?
Four of four times a UK airport union paused a strike for a vote on a new offer, the later strike dates did not go ahead.
4 of 4YesResolved 02 Nov 2026
Culture02 Nov
Will Resident Evil's US total grow 10% between 11 Oct and 1 Nov?
Twelve of thirty-one such horror films added 10% or more to their US total in the three weekends after their fourth.
39%YesResolved 02 Nov 2026
Culture02 Nov
Will Resident Evil's US total grow 7% between 11 Oct and 1 Nov?
Twelve of thirty-one such horror films added 10% or more to their US total in the three weekends after their fourth.
55%YesResolved 02 Nov 2026
Politics02 Nov
Will a higher court pause the Big Bend wall ban by 2 November?
In three of four cases where a judge stopped a government building project, the government asked a higher court to lift the ban.
3 of 4NoResolved 02 Nov 2026
Finance02 Nov
Is the average ten-year government bond yield in October above August's 5.07 per cent?
Two of the last eight times the ten-year average set a ten-year high, it was higher again two months later.
25%YesResolved 02 Nov 2026
Finance02 Nov
Where will the October 2026 monthly average ten-year gilt yield sit?
Two of the last eight times the ten-year average set a ten-year high, it was higher again two months later.
5.25% or aboveResolved 02 Nov 2026
Sports01 Nov
If Palace lose to Spurs on 31 Oct, is Sage out by 1 Nov?
Five of six new coaches whose club tied their future to one game were sacked or left within five weeks of the first report, and the sixth was sacked on day 37.
2 of 5NoResolved 01 Nov 2026
Sports01 Nov
Will Kimi Antonelli seal the F1 title by the Mexico GP on 1 Nov?
In two of four seasons like this one, the leader was champion by the next race, and in two only at the last race.
2 of 4YesResolved 01 Nov 2026
Sports01 Nov
Is Ben Stokes named in any England men's squad by 1 Nov 2026?
Three of the last five England talismans who declared themselves finished came back.
3 of 5NoResolved 01 Nov 2026
Sports01 Nov
Does Stokes declare himself available for England again by 1 Nov 2026?
Three of the last five England talismans who declared themselves finished came back.
NoResolved 01 Nov 2026
Sports01 Nov
Does a challenger to Infantino declare a candidacy by 1 Nov 2026?
Four identified organized-bloc challenges produced formal nominees. Three reached a ballot, and two incumbents won. The no-bloc control is outside that count.
4 of 4NoResolved 01 Nov 2026
October 2026315 resolved
Politics31 Oct
Will COP17 close by 31 Oct without pushing talks to a later session?
In seven of eight UN nature summits since 2004 that checked progress on agreed targets, countries closed with all their decisions by the day after the last planned day. Cali in 2024 finished in Rome in 2025.
86%YesResolved 31 Oct 2026
Politics31 Oct
Will COP17 in Yerevan close on 30 Oct, before midnight?
In seven of eight UN nature summits since 2004 that checked progress on agreed targets, countries closed with all their decisions by the day after the last planned day. Cali in 2024 finished in Rome in 2025.
43%NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Politics31 Oct
Will North Korea switch on its border loudspeakers by 31 October?
In four of six statements since 2010 by a Korean government that it would restart a stopped step at the border, the step began within five days. Twice it did not begin.
67%NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Sports31 Oct
Will Pakistan win their home three-team ODI series?
In five of nine such home series, the host won most of its group games against the visitors, and four times it did not.
50%YesResolved 31 Oct 2026
Finance31 Oct
Will Russian diesel be imported into the US by 31 Oct?
In four of eight times a government eased oil sanctions to cut prices, diesel was cheaper four weeks later, and in four it cost more.
1 of 4NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Sports31 Oct
Will the Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
In five of seven such finals, the team with home advantage won; twice it lost after leading the series.
71%YesResolved 31 Oct 2026
Sports31 Oct
Will the 2026 WNBA Finals go to a seventh game?
In five of seven such finals, the team with home advantage won; twice it lost after leading the series.
29%YesResolved 31 Oct 2026
Finance31 Oct
Does the US announce any diesel export limit by 31 October?
In seven of eight cases where a leader or his government threatened their own industry over a price, a rule or a deal followed.
25%NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Politics31 Oct
Does the Security Council recommend Rebeca Grynspan by 31 Oct?
In three of four UN contests since 1991, the leader after the third vote was picked within a month; in all four within 38 days.
4 of 4NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Regional31 Oct
Will any Bill be introduced in the Senedd before 31 October 2026?
None of the last eight minority budgets in Cardiff or Edinburgh was agreed before the draft was laid.
YesResolved 31 Oct 2026
Politics31 Oct
Will the UK sanction more Israeli ministers before 31 Oct 2026?
Three of the last four pledged British measures on Israel landed inside about eight weeks. A settlement trade ban never has.
NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Sports31 Oct
Are both Zurich records ratified by 31 October?
Two of the last eight senior world records World Athletics ratified were confirmed inside 92 days; in 2025 it was nine of fourteen.
25%NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Tech31 Oct
Does Australia's eSafety Commissioner announce a penalty on any platform under the under-16 ban by 31 Oct?
One of the last five official milestones in Australia's under-16 ban reported it working.
1 of 5NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Tech31 Oct
Does TikTok, Snap or YouTube announce a default daily time limit for under-18 accounts by 31 October 2026?
One of the last five official milestones in Australia's under-16 ban reported it working.
NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Finance31 Oct
Will Ofwat publish a decision on the London & Valley Water proposal before 31 October 2026?
All three verified cases of a water company running out of money since 1989 avoided special administration.
NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Politics31 Oct
Does Zelenskyy announce a presidential election date by 31 Oct 2026?
Senior officials fell within days every time investigators moved. None of the four crises shifted the election question.
0 of 4NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Culture31 Oct
Does Spider-Man: Brand New Day rank in the all-time worldwide top three by 31 October 2026?
Two of the last four films to cross $2bn on a first run kept earning afterwards, and both crossed fast.
YesResolved 31 Oct 2026
Tech31 Oct
Does the Competition and Markets Authority publish its decision on Apple app steering by 31 Oct?
Four of the CMA's five decisions under the new regime came within 78 days of the responses being published.
NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Tech31 Oct
Does the competition regulator decide on Apple and Google steering on the same day by 31 Oct?
Four of the CMA's five decisions under the new regime came within 78 days of the responses being published.
NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Finance31 Oct
Are Argos standalone store closures announced via RNS by 31 Oct 2026?
All four of the last four heavily discounted UK retail brand sales since 2018 left a smaller store estate inside eighteen months.
4 of 4NoResolved 31 Oct 2026
Finance30 Oct
Will the pound end Budget week moving the same way as on Budget day?
In four of five Budgets that came with UK borrowing costs near a five-year high, the pound moved the same way by Friday as on Budget day, and in 1990 it was almost flat on the day and fell by Friday.
4 of 5NoResolved 30 Oct 2026
Finance30 Oct
Will the pound buy more dollars on 30 October than on 27 October?
In four of five Budgets that came with UK borrowing costs near a five-year high, the pound moved the same way by Friday as on Budget day, and in 1990 it was almost flat on the day and fell by Friday.
3 of 5YesResolved 30 Oct 2026
Politics30 Oct
Will the EU-Canada summit text use the words 'associate member'?
In five of seven EU summits since 2004 where a name for a partner's status was proposed first, the joint text used it word for word. Twice it was changed: the Mediterranean plan in 2008 and Tunisia in 2023.
71%NoResolved 30 Oct 2026
Tech30 Oct
Will Brussels or the UK's CMA ask Meta to pause its new terms?
In eight of ten fights over new terms since 2009, the platform changed the disputed text or its plan after public protest. Six were full climbdowns, and in two the platform changed nothing.
YesResolved 30 Oct 2026
Politics30 Oct
Will Netanyahu's Likud win the most seats on 27 October?
In six of seven Israeli election rounds since 2003, the prime minister was still in office 58 days after the vote. In 2022 Yair Lapid handed power to Netanyahu on day 58.
YesResolved 30 Oct 2026
Culture30 Oct
Will at least one Traitor reach the final of The Celebrity Traitors?
In all five such series with famous players, a Traitor reached the final, and Traitors won the prize three times.
5 of 5YesResolved 30 Oct 2026
Culture30 Oct
Will the Traitors win the prize in The Celebrity Traitors series 2?
In all five such series with famous players, a Traitor reached the final, and Traitors won the prize three times.
3 of 5NoResolved 30 Oct 2026
Culture30 Oct
Will Hannah Fry still be in The Celebrity Traitors at the final?
In all five such series with famous players, a Traitor reached the final, and Traitors won the prize three times.
NoResolved 30 Oct 2026
Politics30 Oct
Will Donald Trump campaign with Byron Donalds in Florida by 2 Nov?
In two of four open governor races in a year when pay trailed prices, the president's party kept the office.
YesResolved 30 Oct 2026
Finance30 Oct
Will the US pay over 5.28% to borrow for 10 years on 30 Oct?
In three of five such jumps since 1975, the rate was still above its old high 23 days later, and twice it fell back below.
3 of 5NoResolved 30 Oct 2026
Finance30 Oct
Does the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate at its 29-30 October 2026 meeting?
The Bank of Japan raised rates at the next meeting after two of the six yen-buying runs since 1998, and both were the two most recent.
33%NoResolved 30 Oct 2026
Finance29 Oct
Will US growth for July to September come in under 2.2%?
All seven times since 2003 that a war pushed up oil prices in the quarter, the first US growth figure was 2.0% a year or less, below today's 2.2%. The highest was 2.0%, in April 2026.
100%NoResolved 29 Oct 2026
Politics29 Oct
Will aid reach Oleshky or civilians leave it by 29 October?
In six of seven local truces for aid since 2012, aid got into the town or a group of people got out within a week of the named day. In Homs in 2012, nothing moved.
71%NoResolved 29 Oct 2026
Tech29 Oct
Will Microsoft's July to September spending top its $50bn forecast?
In seven of nine Microsoft reports after a scare over AI spending since 2024, the company forecast more spending for the next quarter. In January 2025 it forecast a level, and in January 2026 a dip.
NoResolved 29 Oct 2026
Finance29 Oct
Will a 30-year US home loan cost over 7.40% a year on 29 Oct?
In three of five such jumps since 1975, the rate was still above its old high 23 days later, and twice it fell back below.
5 of 5NoResolved 29 Oct 2026
Politics29 Oct
Will Burnham's voting reform commission have a chair by 29 October?
In one of four British reform cases where no chair was named on the day, a chair came within a month.
1 of 4NoResolved 29 Oct 2026
Finance29 Oct
Will South West Water face a new fine or charge by 29 October?
In none of ten cases where a water or energy company got its biggest penalty yet did a regulator punish it again within 30 days.
0%NoResolved 29 Oct 2026
Politics29 Oct
Does Alberta vote to remain a province of Canada on 19 October?
In five of six similar votes where polls favoured staying, staying won. The exception was Catalonia, where many stay voters kept away.
83%YesResolved 29 Oct 2026
Politics29 Oct
Does the stay side get under 60% of valid votes in Alberta?
In five of six similar votes where polls favoured staying, staying won. The exception was Catalonia, where many stay voters kept away.
4 of 5NoResolved 29 Oct 2026
Politics29 Oct
Does turnout in Alberta's 19 October vote top 80%?
In five of six similar votes where polls favoured staying, staying won. The exception was Catalonia, where many stay voters kept away.
67%NoResolved 29 Oct 2026
Politics29 Oct
Is a joint UK-US leaders' statement published by 29 October?
Of the last 6 first UK-US summit talks, 1 ended in a joint statement that day and 2 within a month.
NoResolved 29 Oct 2026
Finance29 Oct
Does the ECB raise the deposit facility rate at its meeting on 29 October 2026?
In two of the four ECB tightening cycles since 1999 a third rise followed the second within eight weeks.
NoResolved 29 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the 28 Oct Budget keep both fiscal rules unchanged?
In four of five Budgets that came with UK borrowing costs near a five-year high, the pound moved the same way by Friday as on Budget day, and in 1990 it was almost flat on the day and fell by Friday.
YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Politics28 Oct
Will the 28 Oct Budget leave out a year for 3% of GDP on defence?
Six of seven times since 2015, a UK Budget or statement left out the year for a defence spending goal, and once it gave one. In four of the six, the prime minister named a year later in a speech.
86%NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Politics28 Oct
Will the 28 Oct Budget lift planned 2030 defence spend above 2.7%?
Six of seven times since 2015, a UK Budget or statement left out the year for a defence spending goal, and once it gave one. In four of the six, the prime minister named a year later in a speech.
YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will Jio shares end their first day above the sale price?
In three of seven record first share sales in India since 2004, the shares closed their first day above the sale price. The last three, in 2021, 2022 and 2024, all closed below it.
43%YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will Jio shares end their first day below their opening price?
In three of seven record first share sales in India since 2004, the shares closed their first day above the sale price. The last three, in 2021, 2022 and 2024, all closed below it.
71%NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Tech28 Oct
Will Meta delay its new terms or exempt news sites from crawling?
In eight of ten fights over new terms since 2009, the platform changed the disputed text or its plan after public protest. Six were full climbdowns, and in two the platform changed nothing.
2 of 5YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Tech28 Oct
Will Microsoft plan higher spending for October to December?
In seven of nine Microsoft reports after a scare over AI spending since 2024, the company forecast more spending for the next quarter. In January 2025 it forecast a level, and in January 2026 a dip.
78%YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Sports28 Oct
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?
Two of six teams that reached the final unbeaten, rested and with home games first won the title, and four lost it.
33%YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Sports28 Oct
Will the 2026 World Series go to a seventh game?
Two of six teams that reached the final unbeaten, rested and with home games first won the title, and four lost it.
33%NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Politics28 Oct
Will the UK Budget on 28 Oct cut grants for heat pumps?
Two of four times the UK delayed its reply to the climate watchdog, a new climate plan came the same day, and twice it did not.
YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the government accept the Low Pay Commission's rates in full?
In all six years since 2020, ministers took the Low Pay Commission's advice on minimum pay in full, with no rate changed.
100%YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will 18 to 20 year olds get a smaller pay rise than adults in April?
In all six years since 2020, ministers took the Low Pay Commission's advice on minimum pay in full, with no rate changed.
33%YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the 28 Oct Budget promise to pay a share of future SEND debts?
One of six times councils asked for help with debts before a spending plan, the next plan promised a share, and five times it did not.
17%NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the 28 Oct Budget keep the mansion tax as announced last year?
In three of four times a chancellor dropped a tax rise before a Budget, the next one kept to it, and once the tax rose another way.
3 of 4NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the Bank of Canada hold its rate at 2.25% on 28 October?
Eight of ten times after such a warning, Canada’s central bank kept its rate at the next meeting, and twice it raised it.
80%NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the Bank of Canada raise its rate on 28 October?
Eight of ten times after such a warning, Canada’s central bank kept its rate at the next meeting, and twice it raised it.
20%YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the Bank of Canada cut its rate on 28 October?
Eight of ten times after such a warning, Canada’s central bank kept its rate at the next meeting, and twice it raised it.
0%NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the 28 Oct Budget bring the £135 parcel duty date forward?
In none of six such decisions did a Budget bring the date forward, though three times a separate decision did.
0%NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the 28 Oct Budget name the exact day parcel duty starts?
In none of six such decisions did a Budget bring the date forward, though three times a separate decision did.
NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the government publish its non-compete plan by 28 Oct?
Four of six times lawmakers limited these clauses with a pay level or time limit, and twice they banned them outright.
NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the 28 Oct Budget delay, cancel or cut the fuel duty rise?
In six of eight past Budgets with pump prices near a record, the Treasury put off, cut or split a planned fuel duty rise.
75%YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the 28 Oct Budget cut fuel duty below 52.95p a litre?
In six of eight past Budgets with pump prices near a record, the Treasury put off, cut or split a planned fuel duty rise.
25%NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the 28 Oct Budget raise the 20% tax on gaming machines?
In none of four past Budgets did the Treasury raise the tax on the part of an industry that had warned of closures.
0 of 4YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the 28 Oct Budget raise the rate of any other gambling tax?
In none of four past Budgets did the Treasury raise the tax on the part of an industry that had warned of closures.
4 of 4NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will Airbus cut its 870 delivery target by 28 October?
In two of four past cases where a plane maker found a fault while its yearly target stood, it cut the target.
2 of 4NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the 28 October Budget cut or scrap Britain's tax on tech firms?
In six past cases where the US threatened tariffs over a tax like this, two countries dropped it.
33%NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Does the 28 October Budget give new money to farm nature schemes?
In eight UK cases where a fund like this ran out early, the next Budget added new money only once.
12%NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Does the Fed raise US interest rates again on 28 October 2026?
The Fed has changed direction 11 times since 1994. In 8 of them it moved the same way again at the very next meeting.
73%NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Does the UK confirm a pension rise in line with wages by 28 October?
None of the last 7 wage-led pension rises was confirmed within a month. 6 of 7 were confirmed within 90 days.
71%YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Is the UK 10-year bond yield lower on Budget day than on 15 Sep?
Five of the last eight central bank decisions taken under pressure to slow bond sales cut the pace, dropped a bucket or ended sales.
75%YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Politics28 Oct
Does the government publish a revised 1.5m homes target by 28 Oct?
Four of the last eight ministerial admissions that a target would be missed were followed by a formal rewrite within 60 days.
50%NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Regional28 Oct
Is a Stormont 2026-27 Budget agreed before the 28 Oct UK Budget?
Four of the last six improved offers to a devolved government were accepted inside 30 days; the two that failed were Stormont budgets.
NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Do planned UK government bond sales for 2026-27 rise above £246.2bn at the Budget on 28 October?
Two of the last eight times the ten-year average set a ten-year high, it was higher again two months later.
YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Politics28 Oct
Does the Budget on 28 Oct 2026 list the English overnight visitor levy in its policy decisions table?
Two of the five local levies promised by UK governments since 2007 reached a Bill within twelve months.
NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Does the competition regulator open a Phase 2 inquiry into E.ON buying OVO Energy by 28 Oct?
Four of the five household energy supply mergers on the CMA record since 2003 cleared at Phase 1.
NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Will the statutory Phase 1 deadline of 28 October 2026 be extended?
Four of the five household energy supply mergers on the CMA record since 2003 cleared at Phase 1.
NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Politics28 Oct
Will the Budget on 28 October 2026 contain a new measure aimed specifically at household energy bills?
Two of the last eight fiscal events held within three months of an Ofgem cap rise carried a new measure for household energy bills.
25%YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Politics28 Oct
If the Budget acts on energy bills, what form will it take?
Two of the last eight fiscal events held within three months of an Ofgem cap rise carried a new measure for household energy bills.
Further levy or VAT reduction on billsResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Beyond July's pubs cut, does the 28 October Budget give English shops and hospitality more rates relief?
Seven of the last eight autumn fiscal events carried a business rates measure for retail, hospitality, leisure or pubs.
88%YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
How will the Budget treat business rates for retail, hospitality and leisure?
Seven of the last eight autumn fiscal events carried a business rates measure for retail, hospitality, leisure or pubs.
Further relief or a lower multiplierResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Does the Budget on 28 October 2026 announce net tax rises of £10bn a year or more?
Three of the last four times borrowing ran above forecast into a fiscal event, the chancellor answered with tax rises.
3 of 4NoResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Does the 28 Oct Budget raise the bank surcharge above 3% or add a new levy?
Levies came at a new government's first Budget or in a crisis; refusals came mid-term. October is a first Budget.
3 of 5YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
What form does bank taxation take in the 28 October Budget?
Levies came at a new government's first Budget or in a crisis; refusals came mid-term. October is a first Budget.
Surcharge rise onlyResolved 28 Oct 2026
Finance28 Oct
Does the 2026 autumn Budget announce net tax rises, per the OBR's policy measures table?
Four of the last five autumn fiscal events that followed a summer warning raised taxes, from 2021 to 2025.
4 of 5YesResolved 28 Oct 2026
Sports27 Oct
Will Pakistan reach the final of their home three-team ODI series?
In five of nine such home series, the host won most of its group games against the visitors, and four times it did not.
70%YesResolved 27 Oct 2026
Politics27 Oct
Will the Lords give the Courts Bill a second reading on 27 Oct?
Five of seven times peers debated a plan to take away jury trials, they let it pass, and twice they voted it down.
71%YesResolved 27 Oct 2026
Politics27 Oct
Will a peer formally move to block the Courts Bill on 27 Oct?
Five of seven times peers debated a plan to take away jury trials, they let it pass, and twice they voted it down.
43%NoResolved 27 Oct 2026
Regional27 Oct
Will North Devon births stay suspended after the 26 Oct check?
Three of five times a birth unit missed one reopening date, it stayed shut at the next, and twice it reopened.
3 of 5YesResolved 27 Oct 2026
Tech27 Oct
Will Rockstar delay GTA VI again by 27 October?
Four of six delayed games and films came out on the date their makers backed weeks before; twice it moved again.
33%NoResolved 27 Oct 2026
Politics27 Oct
Will the asylum bill committee pass the late-claim rules by 3 Nov?
Eight of eight times since 2015, MPs on the committee passed the Home Office's own changes before their last meeting.
100%YesResolved 27 Oct 2026
Finance27 Oct
Will the US weekly petrol price for 26 October be above $4.465?
In four of six US decisions to release emergency oil during a crisis abroad, petrol cost more four weeks later.
67%NoResolved 27 Oct 2026
Regional27 Oct
Will Loganair cabin crew back a strike in the vote ending 27 Oct?
In all eight strike votes at UK airlines and airports since 2018, workers backed a strike.
100%YesResolved 27 Oct 2026
Regional27 Oct
Will Loganair make a new pay offer before the vote closes on 27 Oct?
In all eight strike votes at UK airlines and airports since 2018, workers backed a strike.
0%YesResolved 27 Oct 2026
Finance27 Oct
Will the Vesuvius board recommend RHI Magnesita's offer by 27 Oct?
In two of five cases where a company's largest shareholder backed a buyer the board had refused, the board then recommended the offer.
2 of 5NoResolved 27 Oct 2026
Finance27 Oct
Will RHI Magnesita improve its offer for Vesuvius by 27 October?
In two of five cases where a company's largest shareholder backed a buyer the board had refused, the board then recommended the offer.
2 of 5NoResolved 27 Oct 2026
Finance27 Oct
Will RHI Magnesita's 27 October deadline for Vesuvius be extended?
In two of five cases where a company's largest shareholder backed a buyer the board had refused, the board then recommended the offer.
2 of 5YesResolved 27 Oct 2026
Politics27 Oct
Will Bulgaria elect its president outright on 25 October?
None of Bulgaria's seven presidential elections since 1992 ended in the first round.
0%NoResolved 27 Oct 2026
Politics27 Oct
Will more than half of Bulgaria's voters take part on 25 October?
None of Bulgaria's seven presidential elections since 1992 ended in the first round.
57%NoResolved 27 Oct 2026
Politics27 Oct
Does any candidate win over half the valid votes on 25 October?
None of Bulgaria's seven presidential elections since 1992 ended in the first round.
14%NoResolved 27 Oct 2026
Politics27 Oct
Does the environment department give evidence to MPs by 29 October?
Four of the last eight reports from this committee had the department back in the room within 41 days. Full record: 14 of 28.
50%YesResolved 27 Oct 2026
Politics27 Oct
Will the Energy Secretary announce new household bill support before the Budget?
Two of the last eight fiscal events held within three months of an Ofgem cap rise carried a new measure for household energy bills.
NoResolved 27 Oct 2026
Sports26 Oct
Will the 2026 WNBA Finals last at least five games?
In five of seven such finals, the team with home advantage won; twice it lost after leading the series.
86%YesResolved 26 Oct 2026
Sports26 Oct
Will a Spain player win the 2026 Ballon d'Or on 26 October?
In seven of nine World Cup years a player from the champion team won the Ballon d'Or. Both misses went to the beaten finalist.
78%NoResolved 26 Oct 2026
Sports26 Oct
Will the Ballon d'Or go to a player from Spain or Argentina?
In seven of nine World Cup years a player from the champion team won the Ballon d'Or. Both misses went to the beaten finalist.
100%NoResolved 26 Oct 2026
Sports26 Oct
Will Spain players finish first and second in the Ballon d'Or?
In seven of nine World Cup years a player from the champion team won the Ballon d'Or. Both misses went to the beaten finalist.
22%NoResolved 26 Oct 2026
Sports26 Oct
Will Harry Kane finish in the top three of the Ballon d'Or?
In seven of nine World Cup years a player from the champion team won the Ballon d'Or. Both misses went to the beaten finalist.
78%YesResolved 26 Oct 2026
Sports25 Oct
Will Pakistan beat England in Lahore on 25 October?
In five of nine such home series, the host won most of its group games against the visitors, and four times it did not.
56%YesResolved 25 Oct 2026
Sports25 Oct
Will Vinicius Junior play in the Clasico on 25 October?
One of four times Spain's federation banned a player for two or more games with a big match inside the ban, the ban was paused before that match. The court order in that case was dated 29December, two days before the 31December derby. No federation body did so in this sample.
1 of 4NoResolved 25 Oct 2026
Sports25 Oct
Will the Spanish federation cut Vinicius Junior's ban by 25 October?
One of four times Spain's federation banned a player for two or more games with a big match inside the ban, the ban was paused before that match. The court order in that case was dated 29December, two days before the 31December derby. No federation body did so in this sample.
0 of 4NoResolved 25 Oct 2026
Sports25 Oct
Will Kimi Antonelli clinch the F1 title in Austin on 25 Oct?
In two of four seasons like this one, the leader was champion by the next race, and in two only at the last race.
1 of 4NoResolved 25 Oct 2026
Politics25 Oct
Will the US government appeal the Trump ads ban by 25 Oct?
Four of five times a US court briefly stopped government spending, it extended the order or made it longer, and once it let it go.
NoResolved 25 Oct 2026
Politics25 Oct
Will Flávio Bolsonaro beat Lula in Brazil's runoff on 25 October?
Three of five times a big foreign power openly backed one side in a close final vote, that side won, and twice it lost.
3 of 5NoResolved 25 Oct 2026
Politics25 Oct
Will Brazil's runoff winner finish less than 8 points ahead?
Three of five times a big foreign power openly backed one side in a close final vote, that side won, and twice it lost.
3 of 4YesResolved 25 Oct 2026
Politics25 Oct
Will the US openly back Flávio or punish Brazil before 25 October?
Three of five times a big foreign power openly backed one side in a close final vote, that side won, and twice it lost.
4 of 5NoResolved 25 Oct 2026
Regional25 Oct
Do Wirral's buses come under public control in October 2026?
All four English bus franchising phases since 2023 started in the month their authority named.
YesResolved 25 Oct 2026
Sports23 Oct
Will Canada beat England again in Ottawa on 23 October?
All four times a women's rugby team lost and met the same side away within a week, the winners won again.
4 of 4YesResolved 23 Oct 2026
Culture23 Oct
Will Jamie Miller's Babydoll be UK number one on 23 Oct?
Two of nine viral songs at number two passed a star's new hit to reach number one, and seven did not.
22%YesResolved 23 Oct 2026
Finance23 Oct
Will Saba get a seat on the BG US Growth board by 23 October?
In two of ten fights for an investment trust board, the activist got seats: once by a vote, once by a deal.
20%NoResolved 23 Oct 2026
Finance23 Oct
Will over 60% of votes go against Saba's candidates on 23 October?
In two of ten fights for an investment trust board, the activist got seats: once by a vote, once by a deal.
67%NoResolved 23 Oct 2026
Finance23 Oct
Will the BG US Growth board offer all holders an exit by 23 October?
In two of ten fights for an investment trust board, the activist got seats: once by a vote, once by a deal.
30%NoResolved 23 Oct 2026
Politics23 Oct
Do the US and Belarus sign a potash deal by 23 Oct?
None of the eight purchase deals Donald Trump announced before signing was signed within a month; two were signed within 90 days.
0%NoResolved 23 Oct 2026
Politics23 Oct
Does the Security Council recommend Rebeca Grynspan by 23 Oct?
In three of four UN contests since 1991, the leader after the third vote was picked within a month; in all four within 38 days.
3 of 4NoResolved 23 Oct 2026
Regional23 Oct
Is Northern Ireland's teacher work-to-rule still in place on 23 Oct?
In all nine UK teacher work-to-rules since 2012, the action was still in place a month after it began.
100%YesResolved 23 Oct 2026
Politics23 Oct
Is a foreign firm sanctioned for serving Iran's airlines by 23 Oct?
In seven of eight US aviation or shipping restrictions with a named start date since 2018, the rule came into force on that day.
NoResolved 23 Oct 2026
Politics23 Oct
Does the US ease or pause its Iran airline sanctions by 23 Oct?
In seven of eight US aviation or shipping restrictions with a named start date since 2018, the rule came into force on that day.
25%NoResolved 23 Oct 2026
Politics22 Oct
Will a court set a date for Trump to answer BBC questions by 23 Oct?
Two of four times a US court ruled on questioning a president under oath, it set a date, and twice it gave none.
2 of 4YesResolved 22 Oct 2026
Politics22 Oct
Will 22 Oct FEC filings show new Musk money for Republican groups?
Three of five big donors gave new money that showed in reports before the vote, and two gave nothing new in time.
3 of 5YesResolved 22 Oct 2026
Sports22 Oct
Will the sports court rule on the Africa Cup final by 22 October?
In one of six such appeals the sports court gave a team back what it won on the pitch, and five times the penalty stayed.
NoResolved 22 Oct 2026
Regional22 Oct
Will Nottingham's trams stop for the GMB strike on 22 October?
In five of ten such tram strikes the first day went ahead, and five times it was called off before it began.
50%NoResolved 22 Oct 2026
Finance22 Oct
Will Brent oil be cheaper on 22 October than on 1 October?
Two of four times rich countries released emergency oil together, UK diesel was cheaper three weeks later, and twice it cost more.
2 of 4NoResolved 22 Oct 2026
Culture22 Oct
Does the 2026 Mercury Prize go to an artist shortlisted between 2021 and 2025?
Four of the last eight Mercury winners had been shortlisted in the five years before they won; four were first-timers.
50%YesResolved 22 Oct 2026
Culture22 Oct
Does Paul McCartney's The Boys of Dungeon Lane win the Mercury Prize on 22 Oct 2026?
Four of the last eight Mercury winners had been shortlisted in the five years before they won; four were first-timers.
NoResolved 22 Oct 2026
Finance21 Oct
Will 21 Oct data show borrowing since April above the OBR forecast?
Six of seven times, the last figures before a Budget kept borrowing on the same side of the forecast as a month before, and once not.
86%YesResolved 21 Oct 2026
Finance21 Oct
Will UK inflation for September, out 21 Oct, be above 3.1%?
In five of seven months when a war abroad pushed petrol up after two rises, UK inflation rose again, and twice it fell.
71%YesResolved 21 Oct 2026
Politics21 Oct
Will President Prabowo's side appear at the 21 Oct haze hearing?
Three of seven times, a ruling for Indonesian citizens against their government stood; three times a higher court overturned it.
YesResolved 21 Oct 2026
Regional21 Oct
Will the 22 October tram strike be called off over a new pay offer?
In five of ten such tram strikes the first day went ahead, and five times it was called off before it began.
30%YesResolved 21 Oct 2026
Regional21 Oct
Will the tram operator offer more than 3.3% before 22 October?
In five of ten such tram strikes the first day went ahead, and five times it was called off before it began.
YesResolved 21 Oct 2026
Politics21 Oct
Will Ireland's public sector strike on 21 October go ahead?
In four of four Irish public pay strikes, the second strike day went ahead; talks came 7 to 13 days after the first.
4 of 4NoResolved 21 Oct 2026
Politics21 Oct
Will the Parti Québécois form Quebec's next government?
In eight similar Canadian elections the party leading the last polls formed the government each time, and won a majority in six.
100%YesResolved 21 Oct 2026
Finance21 Oct
Will the Kenyan court keep the Lamu land order after 14 October?
In seven of eight past cases, a court order freezing land for a big state-backed project still stood 19 days later.
88%NoResolved 21 Oct 2026
Finance21 Oct
Do Bodycote shareholders approve the Veritas deal on 21 October?
In all four similar British takeovers, shareholders backed the deal once the rival bidder had dropped out.
4 of 4YesResolved 21 Oct 2026
Finance21 Oct
Does Veritas raise its 940p offer for Bodycote before the vote?
In all four similar British takeovers, shareholders backed the deal once the rival bidder had dropped out.
0 of 4NoResolved 21 Oct 2026
Politics21 Oct
Is a new candidate for UN secretary-general nominated by 31 Oct?
In three of four UN contests since 1991, the leader after the third vote was picked within a month; in all four within 38 days.
YesResolved 21 Oct 2026
Tech21 Oct
Does Google take its €403m Irish fine to court by 21 Oct?
In 10 of 10 similar big tech fines by Ireland's data regulator since 2021, the company took the fine to court.
100%NoResolved 21 Oct 2026
Regional21 Oct
Is part of Glens of Antrim Potatoes sold by 21 Oct?
In 4 of 10 similar UK food firms that shut in administration, part of the firm was sold within 31 days, each time within 15 days.
40%NoResolved 21 Oct 2026
Politics21 Oct
Does a UK paper set out parent penalties by 21 October 2026?
In 2 of the 4 measured cases since 2021, a UK minister named a new punishment out loud and a paper followed inside a month.
2 of 4NoResolved 21 Oct 2026
Finance20 Oct
Will UK diesel be cheaper on 19 October than on 28 September?
Two of four times rich countries released emergency oil together, UK diesel was cheaper three weeks later, and twice it cost more.
2 of 4NoResolved 20 Oct 2026
Finance20 Oct
Will South West Water appeal its £7.87m sewage fine by 20 October?
In none of ten cases where a water or energy company got its biggest penalty yet did a regulator punish it again within 30 days.
0%NoResolved 20 Oct 2026
Culture20 Oct
Will the BBC name a channel or service to cut by 31 Oct 2027?
In seven of nine such warnings since 2010, the broadcaster later named a channel or service it would cut.
78%YesResolved 20 Oct 2026
Culture20 Oct
Will the BBC name a channel or service to cut by 25 Oct?
In seven of nine such warnings since 2010, the broadcaster later named a channel or service it would cut.
22%YesResolved 20 Oct 2026
Politics19 Oct
Is the Jackdaw decision letter signed by 28 October?
Two of the last seven offshore field decisions were signed inside 79 days. The other five took 265 days or more.
29%YesResolved 19 Oct 2026
Politics18 Oct
Will Alan Milburn release another youth jobs idea before the Budget?
One of four delayed UK reports came out within two months of its due date, and three took four to ten months.
YesResolved 18 Oct 2026
Finance17 Oct
Will the IMF ministers' committee fail to agree a joint statement?
In all five meetings where the IMF ministers' text named a war and energy prices, there was no joint text.
5 of 5YesResolved 17 Oct 2026
Finance17 Oct
Will the IMF ministers' text tell the fund to stick to its core job?
In all five meetings where the IMF ministers' text named a war and energy prices, there was no joint text.
NoResolved 17 Oct 2026
Politics17 Oct
Does South Africa bar US officials or expel a US diplomat by 17 Oct?
1 of the last 8 countries hit with US visa bans on officials hit back with its own ban or an expulsion within 31 days.
12%NoResolved 17 Oct 2026
Politics16 Oct
Will NAHT announce a ballot on industrial action by 16 Oct?
Four of seven times a union of senior staff threatened action, it called a vote of members within a month; three times it did not.
14%NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Politics16 Oct
Will EU leaders back a 15-year trial for new members on 16 Oct?
Four times a blocking country gave way, and the EU opened the talks each time, but only once within a month.
NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Politics16 Oct
Will the unions accept talks at the WRC or Labour Court by 27 Oct?
In four of four Irish public pay strikes, the second strike day went ahead; talks came 7 to 13 days after the first.
4 of 4YesResolved 16 Oct 2026
Politics16 Oct
Does Romania's parliament back a Niculescu government by 16 Oct?
Three of eight times after a failed pick, Romania's parliament backed the next one, and five times that pick withdrew or lost.
38%NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Politics16 Oct
Does Romania's parliament vote on a Niculescu government by 16 Oct?
Three of eight times after a failed pick, Romania's parliament backed the next one, and five times that pick withdrew or lost.
50%NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Sports16 Oct
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers reach the 2026 World Series?
In three of four such tries, a two-time champion that skipped the first round won its first series.
3 of 4NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Politics16 Oct
Will the US ask a higher court to pause the Big Bend ban by 16 Oct?
In three of four cases where a judge stopped a government building project, the government asked a higher court to lift the ban.
3 of 4NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Politics16 Oct
Will the Parti Québécois win at least 64 of the 127 seats?
In eight similar Canadian elections the party leading the last polls formed the government each time, and won a majority in six.
75%NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Politics16 Oct
Will the Parti Québécois get at least 27.5% of the vote?
In eight similar Canadian elections the party leading the last polls formed the government each time, and won a majority in six.
100%YesResolved 16 Oct 2026
Politics16 Oct
Will the Conservatives get more votes than the governing CAQ?
In eight similar Canadian elections the party leading the last polls formed the government each time, and won a majority in six.
100%YesResolved 16 Oct 2026
Sports16 Oct
Will F1 call off or move the Qatar Grand Prix by 16 October?
One of seven races kept on the calendar after war or unrest in the region went ahead on its date and at its track.
29%NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Finance16 Oct
Will Oura set its share sale price above $44?
In three of five big US share sales with strong reported demand, the price was set above the first range.
3 of 5NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Finance16 Oct
Will Oura's first trade on Nasdaq be above its sale price?
In three of five big US share sales with strong reported demand, the price was set above the first range.
4 of 5NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Finance16 Oct
Will Oura raise its $40 to $44 price range before pricing?
In three of five big US share sales with strong reported demand, the price was set above the first range.
2 of 5NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Finance16 Oct
Does Berkshire class B close below $509.77 on 16 October 2026?
Founders and long chairs left the seat 13 times at S&P 100 firms since 2010. The shares were lower four weeks on five times.
38%NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Sports16 Oct
Do the Milwaukee Brewers reach the World Series?
Teams with baseball's best record won their first playoff series in 5 of the last 8 full seasons, and 2 of the 4 since 2022.
50%YesResolved 16 Oct 2026
Politics16 Oct
Does an executive action cite the Graham act by 18 October?
In 2 of the last 12 US sanctions laws an executive action cited the new law within 30 days of the signature.
17%YesResolved 16 Oct 2026
Politics16 Oct
Does the president send Congress a waiver by 18 October?
In 2 of the last 12 US sanctions laws an executive action cited the new law within 30 days of the signature.
YesResolved 16 Oct 2026
Sports16 Oct
Does JJ Gabriel sign for a club other than Man Utd by 16 Oct?
Four of the last seven academy players who forced an exit at 15 to 17 were registered with a new club within a month.
57%NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Sports16 Oct
Does Gabriel play in any Man Utd match by 16 Oct?
Four of the last seven academy players who forced an exit at 15 to 17 were registered with a new club within a month.
NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Regional16 Oct
Is a court claim filed against the Bicester asylum plan by 16 Oct?
Two of the last eight local revolts against a Home Office asylum site went to court within a month; two sites opened within 90 days.
25%NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Regional16 Oct
Is the Bicester urgent planning application approved by 16 Oct?
Two of the last eight local revolts against a Home Office asylum site went to court within a month; two sites opened within 90 days.
NoResolved 16 Oct 2026
Finance16 Oct
Does the Treasury's call for evidence on pub and hotel valuation close on 16 October with no extension?
Seven of the last eight autumn fiscal events carried a business rates measure for retail, hospitality, leisure or pubs.
YesResolved 16 Oct 2026
Sports15 Oct
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
In three of four such tries, a two-time champion that skipped the first round won its first series.
2 of 4NoResolved 15 Oct 2026
Finance15 Oct
Does the settlement make Paramount sell a business by 15 October?
Four of ten US media and telecom deals closed within ten days of settling the antitrust case against them.
80%NoResolved 15 Oct 2026
Politics15 Oct
Does the Senate hold a recorded vote on S.J.Res.216 by 15 October?
In 5 of the last 11 Gulf arms notifications the Senate held a recorded vote within the 30-day review.
45%NoResolved 15 Oct 2026
Politics14 Oct
Will Pakistan's parliament approve the KP emergency by 21 Oct?
Three of six times since 1973, rule by the governor in a Pakistani province ended within two months, and three times it lasted longer.
YesResolved 14 Oct 2026
Politics14 Oct
Will the US judge extend or replace the Trump ads ban by 25 Oct?
Four of five times a US court briefly stopped government spending, it extended the order or made it longer, and once it let it go.
4 of 5YesResolved 14 Oct 2026
Finance14 Oct
Will the IMF still show world debt below 100% of GDP through 2028?
In four of six recent October reports, the IMF did not bring closer the year world debt reaches 100% of output.
67%YesResolved 14 Oct 2026
Culture14 Oct
Will Hockney's Dog Painting 17 sell for more than £2.5m?
In five of ten similar sales, a work by an artist who had died that year sold for more than its top estimate.
50%YesResolved 14 Oct 2026
Culture14 Oct
Will Hockney's Dog Painting 17 sell for more than £5m?
In five of ten similar sales, a work by an artist who had died that year sold for more than its top estimate.
20%NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Politics14 Oct
Does the UK ask the US for the man's return or a waiver by 14 Oct?
Six of the last eight host governments pressed for a waiver, a return or a charge within 30 days. The two that did not were British.
75%NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Politics14 Oct
Does the Met confirm its own investigation into the man by 14 Oct?
Six of the last eight host governments pressed for a waiver, a return or a charge within 30 days. The two that did not were British.
NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Politics14 Oct
Is the man charged in the United States by 14 Oct?
Six of the last eight host governments pressed for a waiver, a return or a charge within 30 days. The two that did not were British.
NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Sports14 Oct
Is Michael Carrick still Man Utd manager on 14 Oct 2026?
Seven of the last eight officials named in an admitted refereeing error were left out of the next Premier League round.
YesResolved 14 Oct 2026
Finance14 Oct
Is a US order removing the Irish whiskey tariff signed by 14 Oct?
Four of the last eight tariff promises Donald Trump made out loud were signed into an order within 30 days. The Scotch promise took 85.
50%NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Finance14 Oct
Does the Irish government say the zero tariff is in force by 14 Oct?
Four of the last eight tariff promises Donald Trump made out loud were signed into an order within 30 days. The Scotch promise took 85.
NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Finance14 Oct
Does the Commission announce zero-for-zero on spirits by 14 Oct?
Four of the last eight tariff promises Donald Trump made out loud were signed into an order within 30 days. The Scotch promise took 85.
NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Tech14 Oct
Does the Commission publish a formal EES derogation by 14 Oct?
One of the last six not-ready signals on an EU border system got a formal new date or derogation from Brussels within 30 days.
17%NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Tech14 Oct
Does the EU publish a new ETIAS start date by 14 Oct?
One of the last six not-ready signals on an EU border system got a formal new date or derogation from Brussels within 30 days.
NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Tech14 Oct
Does France start biometric EES checks on cars at Dover by 14 Oct?
One of the last six not-ready signals on an EU border system got a formal new date or derogation from Brussels within 30 days.
NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Politics14 Oct
Does a minister rule out a customs union on the record by 14 Oct?
Two of the last six EU-UK talks that were delayed got a firm new date within 31 days.
YesResolved 14 Oct 2026
Politics14 Oct
Does the Home Secretary make a Commons statement on it by 14 Oct?
Two of three protest series that came back for a second weekend went on to a third with arrests. Knowsley in 2023 did not.
NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Politics14 Oct
Does the HCLG Committee announce a session on the target by 14 Oct?
Four of the last eight ministerial admissions that a target would be missed were followed by a formal rewrite within 60 days.
NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Politics14 Oct
Does the White House tie aid or intel to Kyiv's strikes by 14 Oct?
Kyiv publicly claimed a Russian refinery or oil-site strike within 14 days in two of five such asks since 2022; both were in 2026.
NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Politics14 Oct
Does a UK minister back Kyiv's right to hit Russian oil by 14 Oct?
Kyiv publicly claimed a Russian refinery or oil-site strike within 14 days in two of five such asks since 2022; both were in 2026.
NoResolved 14 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Will Kimberly Guilfoyle be out as US envoy to Greece by 16 Oct?
One of seven Trump appointees hit by such press reports left within three weeks, and six stayed longer.
14%YesResolved 13 Oct 2026
Finance13 Oct
Will the IMF keep its 2026 UK growth forecast at 1% or higher?
In five of seven years after a summer rise, the IMF kept or raised its UK forecast in October, and twice it cut it.
71%YesResolved 13 Oct 2026
Finance13 Oct
Will the IMF cut its 2027 UK growth forecast below 1.3%?
In five of seven years after a summer rise, the IMF kept or raised its UK forecast in October, and twice it cut it.
33%YesResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Will Chris Thomas be elected Chief Minister on 13 October?
In all four votes since 2006, the island’s parliament chose the more experienced candidate as Chief Minister.
4 of 4YesResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Will the Chief Minister be chosen in the first vote on 13 October?
In all four votes since 2006, the island’s parliament chose the more experienced candidate as Chief Minister.
3 of 4YesResolved 13 Oct 2026
Finance13 Oct
Will the IMF cut its 2026 world growth forecast below 3.0%?
While a war kept energy prices high, the IMF cut this year's world forecast in four of six reports, kept it once and raised it once.
67%NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Finance13 Oct
Will the IMF cut its 2027 world growth forecast below 3.4%?
While a war kept energy prices high, the IMF cut this year's world forecast in four of six reports, kept it once and raised it once.
3 of 5NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Will the EU open a new part of Ukraine's EU entry talks by 16 Oct?
Four times a blocking country gave way, and the EU opened the talks each time, but only once within a month.
1 of 4YesResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Will Argentina ask the sea tribunal for an urgent order by 31 Oct?
In one of four past cases the country making the threat took its named step within a month. Malaysia took 63 days.
1 of 4YesResolved 13 Oct 2026
Sports13 Oct
Will Wales knock out Albania and reach the World Cup play-off final?
Five of six British teams this far ahead went through. The one exit was Wales men, on penalties in 2026.
83%YesResolved 13 Oct 2026
Sports13 Oct
Will Wales beat Albania by three goals or more over the two matches?
Five of six British teams this far ahead went through. The one exit was Wales men, on penalties in 2026.
33%YesResolved 13 Oct 2026
Finance13 Oct
Will the US say it lent over 20m of the 40m barrels by 13 October?
In four of six past US offers to lend oil from its emergency reserve, companies took more than half. In June they took almost none.
67%NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Finance13 Oct
Will the US announce the result of its oil loan offer by 13 October?
In four of six past US offers to lend oil from its emergency reserve, companies took more than half. In June they took almost none.
83%NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Do EU governments lift the Hungary funds freeze by 23 October?
In five of seven cases, a group of countries lifted its penalty within five and a half months of a new government taking over.
71%YesResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Will a $5,000 dividend mechanism be published by 13 October?
6 of the last 8 cash promises made with no mechanism got one. Five of the six arrived by day four, the last on day 33.
75%NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Tech13 Oct
Does the BMA issue advice or an objection on FDP GP data by 13 Oct?
Two of six quiet NHS patient-data expansions since 2014 drew an ICO, BMA or Health Committee challenge in 30 days; both were GP data.
33%NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Tech13 Oct
Does the ICO issue a statement or inquiry on FDP GP data by 13 Oct?
Two of six quiet NHS patient-data expansions since 2014 drew an ICO, BMA or Health Committee challenge in 30 days; both were GP data.
NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Tech13 Oct
Commons UQ, statement or Health Committee session on it by 13 Oct?
Two of six quiet NHS patient-data expansions since 2014 drew an ICO, BMA or Health Committee challenge in 30 days; both were GP data.
NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Does a named assisted dying vehicle get announced by 13 Oct?
One of seven assisted dying defeats since 1969 was followed within 31 days by a named next bill; the other six went quiet for months.
14%NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Does a Lords assisted dying bill get a first reading by 13 Oct?
One of seven assisted dying defeats since 1969 was followed within 31 days by a named next bill; the other six went quiet for months.
NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Does the Isle of Man assisted dying bill get Royal Assent by 13 Oct?
One of seven assisted dying defeats since 1969 was followed within 31 days by a named next bill; the other six went quiet for months.
NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Does the government table a cap on UK donations by 13 October?
None of the 8 big rival donations since 2001 led to a cap on donations within 31 days.
0%NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Does the Electoral Commission open a Reform £72m inquiry by 13 Oct?
None of the 8 big rival donations since 2001 led to a cap on donations within 31 days.
NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Does Sinn Féin table a unity or border poll motion by 13 Oct?
Four of the last eight US interventions on Northern Ireland drew a reply in the PM's or NI Secretary's own name within seven days.
NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics13 Oct
Does DUP leader Robinson write to or meet US officials by 13 Oct?
Four of the last eight US interventions on Northern Ireland drew a reply in the PM's or NI Secretary's own name within seven days.
NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Tech13 Oct
Does the UK issue a formal response to the slowdown call by 13 Oct?
Three of the last eight calls by AI chiefs to slow or regulate the industry drew a formal UK response inside 30 days, all in 2023.
38%NoResolved 13 Oct 2026
Politics12 Oct
Will the Assembly vote to exclude Michelle O'Neill from office?
On five days since 2000 the Assembly voted to exclude ministers, and none of the votes passed.
0 of 5NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Politics12 Oct
Will any nationalist member vote to exclude Michelle O'Neill?
On five days since 2000 the Assembly voted to exclude ministers, and none of the votes passed.
1 of 5NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Politics12 Oct
Will no unionist member vote against excluding Michelle O'Neill?
On five days since 2000 the Assembly voted to exclude ministers, and none of the votes passed.
4 of 5YesResolved 12 Oct 2026
Finance12 Oct
Will every 2026 economics prize winner work at a US institution?
Nine of the last ten years, every winner worked in the US; in 2025 one of the three worked in France and Britain.
90%YesResolved 12 Oct 2026
Finance12 Oct
Will exactly three people share the 2026 economics prize?
Nine of the last ten years, every winner worked in the US; in 2025 one of the three worked in France and Britain.
50%NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Finance12 Oct
Will a woman be among the winners of the 2026 economics prize?
Nine of the last ten years, every winner worked in the US; in 2025 one of the three worked in France and Britain.
20%NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Sports12 Oct
Will Turkey name a new or acting head of referees by 12 October?
In two of four similar European cases, a new or acting head of referees was named within eight days of the arrests.
2 of 4NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Culture12 Oct
Does Forgotten Island's third weekend fall by more than 45%?
In four of six similar films, takings fell by less than 40% in the second weekend.
33%NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Politics12 Oct
Does Nats publish a report on the Prestwick fault by 12 October?
In six of eight big UK infrastructure breakdowns since 2019, a department or a regulator ordered a new review within a month.
NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Politics12 Oct
Is a date for the next EU-UK summit announced by 14 Oct?
Two of the last six EU-UK talks that were delayed got a firm new date within 31 days.
33%YesResolved 12 Oct 2026
Politics12 Oct
Does a national security bill or order reach Parliament by 12 Oct?
Five of the last eight public interventions by an MI5 chief were followed within 30 days by a security bill or order in Parliament.
62%NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Politics12 Oct
Does MI5 publish a Director General threat update by 12 Oct 2026?
Five of the last eight public interventions by an MI5 chief were followed within 30 days by a security bill or order in Parliament.
NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Politics12 Oct
Is a group designated under the State Threats Act by 12 Oct 2026?
Five of the last eight public interventions by an MI5 chief were followed within 30 days by a security bill or order in Parliament.
NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Sports12 Oct
Is Elena Rybakina still WTA world No.1 on 12 October 2026?
Seven of the last eight changes at the top of the WTA rankings survived four weeks. Those eight are the full record since 2019.
88%YesResolved 12 Oct 2026
Finance12 Oct
Is new government support for British Steel announced by 12 Oct?
In four of the last five state takeovers, new public money followed within a month of the state naming its own board.
4 of 5NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Finance12 Oct
Does British Steel Limited add another director by 12 Oct 2026?
In four of the last five state takeovers, new public money followed within a month of the state naming its own board.
NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Finance12 Oct
Is the next Environment Agency chair named by 12 Oct 2026?
In four of the last five state takeovers, new public money followed within a month of the state naming its own board.
NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Regional12 Oct
Does the government's Stormont offer rise above £1.5bn by 12 Oct?
Four of the last six improved offers to a devolved government were accepted inside 30 days; the two that failed were Stormont budgets.
NoResolved 12 Oct 2026
Tech11 Oct
Does Anthropic narrow Claude access beyond account bans by 11 Oct?
None of the last seven lab disclosures of state-linked misuse was followed within 30 days by a change in who may use the model.
0%NoResolved 11 Oct 2026
Tech11 Oct
Does the Pentagon drop its Anthropic supply-chain label by 11 Oct?
None of the last seven lab disclosures of state-linked misuse was followed within 30 days by a change in who may use the model.
NoResolved 11 Oct 2026
Regional11 Oct
Does the Stormont executive agree a 2026-27 Budget by 11 Oct 2026?
Four of the last six improved offers to a devolved government were accepted inside 30 days; the two that failed were Stormont budgets.
67%NoResolved 11 Oct 2026
Politics11 Oct
Do ministers announce new protest powers or a review by 11 Oct 2026?
Four of the last six home secretaries who told police to use existing powers announced new powers or a review inside 30 days.
67%NoResolved 11 Oct 2026
Finance11 Oct
Does HM Treasury designate a fifth Critical Third Party by 11 October 2026?
One of the last seven first designation rounds widened within 90 days. The US FSOC added a company 73 days after its first two.
14%NoResolved 11 Oct 2026
Politics10 Oct
Is Martin Rolfe still chief executive of Nats on 10 October 2026?
In all seven system failures at national air traffic operators since 2014, the chief executive was still in post a month later.
100%YesResolved 10 Oct 2026
Finance10 Oct
Does Brent trade above $110 before 10 October?
Five of the last eight moves back above $100 unwound inside 30 days; the three that stuck were in 2011 and 2026.
NoResolved 10 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Will LaMonica McIver ask for a rehearing by 9 October?
In four of five such fights, a member of Congress who lost this appeal asked a higher court before any trial.
3 of 3YesResolved 09 Oct 2026
Sports09 Oct
Will Wales win the first match in Albania on 9 October?
Five of six British teams this far ahead went through. The one exit was Wales men, on penalties in 2026.
33%YesResolved 09 Oct 2026
Sports09 Oct
Will one of Wales's six uncapped players debut against Albania?
Five of six British teams this far ahead went through. The one exit was Wales men, on penalties in 2026.
83%YesResolved 09 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Does Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize on 9 October?
In one of six years when someone pressed the Nobel committee openly, the prize went to the side that pressed.
17%NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Does a name on the Oslo peace researchers' list win the prize?
In one of six years when someone pressed the Nobel committee openly, the prize went to the side that pressed.
33%NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Is turnout above 40% in Holborn and St Pancras on 8 October?
Four of the last six byelections with a party leader on the ballot cleared 40% turnout, and none of them passed 51%.
67%NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Do the Conservatives poll under 5% in Holborn and St Pancras?
Four of the last six byelections with a party leader on the ballot cleared 40% turnout, and none of them passed 51%.
NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Does Reform UK finish ahead of the Conservatives on 8 October?
Four of the last six byelections with a party leader on the ballot cleared 40% turnout, and none of them passed 51%.
NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Do Iran and a Gulf state announce a Hormuz agreement by 9 Oct 2026?
Two of the last six Gulf openings to Iran produced an agreement within 30 days; the other four ran on for months or lapsed.
33%NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Does Iran declare Hormuz open to commercial ships by 9 Oct 2026?
Two of the last six Gulf openings to Iran produced an agreement within 30 days; the other four ran on for months or lapsed.
NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Tech09 Oct
Does Anthropic disclose another security incident by 11 Oct?
None of the last seven lab disclosures of state-linked misuse was followed within 30 days by a change in who may use the model.
YesResolved 09 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Do Russian authorities open a criminal case against Yabloko chair Nikolai Rybakov by 9 Oct 2026?
Six of the last eight regimes that struck an opposition party from a national ballot posted a bigger ruling-party result next.
NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Does Labour hold Holborn and St Pancras on 8 October?
Governing parties held two of the last eight seats they defended at a byelection in the first three years of a parliament.
25%YesResolved 09 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Is Labour's winning margin under 5,000 votes on 8 October?
Governing parties held two of the last eight seats they defended at a byelection in the first three years of a parliament.
YesResolved 09 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Do the Greens take more than 30% of the vote on 8 October?
Governing parties held two of the last eight seats they defended at a byelection in the first three years of a parliament.
YesResolved 09 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Does the Met arrest or interview anyone under caution over Reform by 9 Oct?
Two of the last eight UK criminal inquiries into party or campaign funding produced an arrest or interview within 30 days.
25%NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Politics09 Oct
Does the Electoral Commission open an investigation into Reform by 9 Oct?
Two of the last eight UK criminal inquiries into party or campaign funding produced an arrest or interview within 30 days.
NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Finance09 Oct
Do the regulators publish a new Critical Third Parties document by 9 October?
One of the last seven first designation rounds widened within 90 days. The US FSOC added a company 73 days after its first two.
NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Tech09 Oct
Does the UK confirm AISI access to Anthropic's Mythos 5.1 by 9 October?
One of the last eight insider warnings about catastrophic AI risk was followed within 30 days by a step that restrained a model.
NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Tech09 Oct
Do Apple or Google announce a new UK under-18 nudity block by 9 Oct 2026?
One of the eight duties a UK minister promised on technology firms with no Bill in hand reached a first reading in three months.
NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Culture09 Oct
Does Channel 4 confirm the three-way unscripted merger by 9 October?
Four of the last six commissioning rebuilds at UK broadcasters were followed within 90 days by a named commissioner leaving.
NoResolved 09 Oct 2026
Sports08 Oct
Will the Dodgers beat the Braves in their National League series?
In three of four such tries, a two-time champion that skipped the first round won its first series.
3 of 4YesResolved 08 Oct 2026
Tech08 Oct
Will Asos confirm that customer data was stolen by 13 October?
In all six past public threats to leak a company's data, the company confirmed the theft within a week.
100%YesResolved 08 Oct 2026
Sports08 Oct
Do the Milwaukee Brewers win their Division Series?
Teams with baseball's best record won their first playoff series in 5 of the last 8 full seasons, and 2 of the 4 since 2022.
62%YesResolved 08 Oct 2026
Finance08 Oct
Does Canada announce new retaliatory measures by 8 October?
Five of the last eight US import restrictions on an allied economy drew a retaliatory announcement from the target within 30 days.
62%NoResolved 08 Oct 2026
Finance08 Oct
Do Canada and the US resume formal trade talks by 8 October?
Five of the last eight US import restrictions on an allied economy drew a retaliatory announcement from the target within 30 days.
NoResolved 08 Oct 2026
Culture08 Oct
Does the Toronto People's Choice winner screen at the London Film Festival by 19 October?
Five of the last eight TIFF People's Choice winners had their world premiere in Toronto.
YesResolved 08 Oct 2026
Culture07 Oct
Does Channel 4 name its director of programmes by 8 October 2026?
Four of the last six commissioning rebuilds at UK broadcasters were followed within 90 days by a named commissioner leaving.
YesResolved 07 Oct 2026
Sports06 Oct
Does Lionel Messi score for Argentina against Benin on 6 October?
One of the last eight great players given a farewell friendly scored in it: Robbie Keane for Ireland in 2016.
12%YesResolved 06 Oct 2026
Politics05 Oct
Will the Senate Leadership Fund report Kansas ad spending by 3 Nov?
In seven of eight cases where a party's main fund rushed late money into a seat it had kept for years, the party kept the seat.
YesResolved 05 Oct 2026
Finance05 Oct
Will GlenWyvis distillery be put into administration by 7 October?
In four of five past slumps in goods that take years to make, more than one firm failed. The second came months after the first.
4 of 5YesResolved 05 Oct 2026
Culture05 Oct
Does Forgotten Island lose less than 40% in its second weekend?
In four of six similar films, takings fell by less than 40% in the second weekend.
67%NoResolved 05 Oct 2026
Politics05 Oct
Is Lula's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro under 3 points on 4 October?
In four of the five Brazilian first rounds since 2006, the gap between the top two came in smaller than the last polls showed.
4 of 5YesResolved 05 Oct 2026
Politics05 Oct
Does Lula take 40% or more of the valid vote on 4 October?
In four of the five Brazilian first rounds since 2006, the gap between the top two came in smaller than the last polls showed.
5 of 5YesResolved 05 Oct 2026
Politics05 Oct
Is Sweden's new prime minister in office by 5 October?
In 6 of the last 9 Swedish elections that changed the prime minister, the new one took office on day 19 exactly.
67%NoResolved 05 Oct 2026
Sports05 Oct
Do the Seahawks win at least three of their first four games by 4 October?
Defending champions have won five of the last eight NFL kickoff games they played, and 16 of 21 since the game became theirs in 2004.
YesResolved 05 Oct 2026
Culture05 Oct
Does 'Choosin' Texas' reach 25 weeks at No. 1 by the chart dated 10 Oct?
Seven of the last eight long Hot 100 reigns ended by week 19; the only one to go further was a Christmas song, over seven Decembers.
12%NoResolved 05 Oct 2026
Sports04 Oct
Will Daryz win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on 4 October?
Last year's winners back as favourite with the same team won four of nine times. Three finished fourth or lower.
44%YesResolved 04 Oct 2026
Sports04 Oct
Will Daryz finish first or second in the Arc on 4 October?
Last year's winners back as favourite with the same team won four of nine times. Three finished fourth or lower.
67%YesResolved 04 Oct 2026
Tech04 Oct
Does an AI Force order or czar appointment come by 3 November?
In 3 of 7 cases since January 2025, an order or an appointment followed within 45 days of Donald Trump announcing a new body.
43%YesResolved 04 Oct 2026
Finance04 Oct
Does OPEC+ announce a cut to output quotas for November at its meeting on 4 Oct 2026?
Four of the seven Gulf attacks since 2019 that landed before an OPEC+ decision were followed by an output increase.
NoResolved 04 Oct 2026
Culture04 Oct
Does the Glastonbury 2027 general ticket sale sell out within one hour of opening?
Three of the four Glastonbury sales here cleared in an hour or less; eight of the last nine did in the full record.
3 of 4YesResolved 04 Oct 2026
Sports03 Oct
Will Warrington win the Grand Final, their first title since 1955?
Three of eight sides that had waited over 20 years for a title, and lost a final on the way, won their next final.
38%NoResolved 03 Oct 2026
Sports03 Oct
Will the Grand Final be won by 8 points or fewer?
Three of eight sides that had waited over 20 years for a title, and lost a final on the way, won their next final.
62%NoResolved 03 Oct 2026
Politics03 Oct
Will the White House cut off another named outlet by 3 October?
2 of the last 8 outlets cut off by the US federal executive sued over access. The two suits came on day 10 and day 50.
NoResolved 03 Oct 2026
Tech03 Oct
Does another OpenAI or Anthropic safety researcher resign publicly by 9 Oct?
One of the last eight insider warnings about catastrophic AI risk was followed within 30 days by a step that restrained a model.
YesResolved 03 Oct 2026
Tech03 Oct
Does the Culture Secretary move to intervene in Sky's ITV deal in the public interest by 3 Oct?
Four of the last eight CMA merger files started the Phase 1 clock within 56 days of opening; since May 2025 it is 16 of 29.
NoResolved 03 Oct 2026
Regional03 Oct
Does the Scottish Government publish a consultation on new or changed council tax bands by 3 Oct 2026?
One of the four structural changes to council tax proposed by a Scottish administration since 1999 reached the Parliament.
NoResolved 03 Oct 2026
Regional03 Oct
Does the Welsh Government lay a new supplementary budget motion in the Senedd by 3 Oct 2026?
None of the last eight minority budgets in Cardiff or Edinburgh was agreed before the draft was laid.
NoResolved 03 Oct 2026
Politics02 Oct
Does Spain's Congress approve the automatic rent extension decree?
In four of seven similar cases, parliament approved the decree. Every decree Junts opposed since going into opposition fell.
57%NoResolved 02 Oct 2026
Politics02 Oct
Does Junts win a deal to change the rent decree before the vote?
In four of seven similar cases, parliament approved the decree. Every decree Junts opposed since going into opposition fell.
29%NoResolved 02 Oct 2026
Finance02 Oct
Is the new US car mileage rule taken to court within a week?
In all five similar rollbacks, opponents who had promised to sue were in court by the day after the rule came out.
5 of 5YesResolved 02 Oct 2026
Politics02 Oct
Do small boat Channel arrivals from 2 September to 1 October come to 2,610 or fewer?
Two of the four ministerial claims of a fall in crossings since 2023 were matched by the following thirty days.
NoResolved 02 Oct 2026
Regional02 Oct
Does the Scottish government name a third region for the £2 bus fare cap by 2 Oct?
Four of the four Scottish fare schemes since 2021 started on the day named; it is the end dates that move.
NoResolved 02 Oct 2026
Tech02 Oct
Does the regulator's interim report find the nexfibre merger harms competition by 31 Oct?
Two of the five UK telecoms mergers that reached Phase 2 provisional findings were found to raise competition concerns.
YesResolved 02 Oct 2026
Tech02 Oct
Does the CMA publish its interim report on the nexfibre / Substantial inquiry on or before 16 October 2026?
Two of the five UK telecoms mergers that reached Phase 2 provisional findings were found to raise competition concerns.
YesResolved 02 Oct 2026
Finance01 Oct
Does the UK announce new energy cost help for industry by 23 Oct?
In four of eight UK plant stops blamed on energy costs since 2013, the government announced new energy help within a month.
50%YesResolved 01 Oct 2026
Finance01 Oct
Does Paramount close the Warner Bros. Discovery deal by 1 October?
Four of ten US media and telecom deals closed within ten days of settling the antitrust case against them.
40%NoResolved 01 Oct 2026
Finance01 Oct
Is the case against the Paramount deal closed by 31 October?
Three of the last nine antitrust suits against an announced merger were over inside 232 days. The two fastest both settled.
11%YesResolved 01 Oct 2026
Finance01 Oct
Is Nationwide's annual house price growth above 1.6% in September?
In five of the six loosenings of UK mortgage rules since 2013, approvals rose within three months. This time they fell.
NoResolved 01 Oct 2026
Politics01 Oct
Does the Sentencing Act progression model take effect in England and Wales on 1 Oct 2026?
Three of the four times ministers have narrowed a release scheme after announcing it, the timetable held.
YesResolved 01 Oct 2026
September 2026191 resolved
Politics30 Sep
Will Italy's school decree be in the official journal by 1 October?
In five of seven similar Italian decrees since 2007, the president signed within a week of the cabinet vote.
71%YesResolved 30 Sep 2026
Culture30 Sep
Is there an official statement on Oasis sale problems by 30 Sep?
Five of the last six big stadium and festival sales sold out within a month of the announcement; Beyoncé's 2025 London run did not.
NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Finance30 Sep
Does the ban on Canadian dairy, alcohol and motorcycles start on 29 September?
Five of the last eight US import restrictions on an allied economy drew a retaliatory announcement from the target within 30 days.
YesResolved 30 Sep 2026
Tech30 Sep
Is GPT-6 Astra available in the OpenAI API to all developers by 30 Sep 2026?
Five of the last eight GPT versions with a traceable rollout reached free ChatGPT users within 15 days; three stayed behind paid plans.
YesResolved 30 Sep 2026
Regional30 Sep
Does the UK government publish anything on Scotland's food price consultation or Bill by 30 Sep?
Two of the last eight Scottish measures to meet a UK-level constraint came through intact.
NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Politics30 Sep
Does the government bar at least one more offence type from the progression model by 30 Sep?
Three of the four times ministers have narrowed a release scheme after announcing it, the timetable held.
NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Regional30 Sep
Does the UK government publish anything on Scotland's August 2026 migration plans by 30 Sep?
None of the four Scottish visa proposals since 2018 produced a route.
NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Regional30 Sep
Does the UK government publicly respond to the draft independence referendum Bill by 30 Sep?
One of the four Scottish requests for referendum powers since 2012 was granted; the last three were refused.
NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Regional30 Sep
Does John Swinney make a statement to the Scottish Parliament on the constitution by 30 Sep?
One of the four Scottish requests for referendum powers since 2012 was granted; the last three were refused.
NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Finance30 Sep
Is Lisa Cook still a serving member of the Federal Reserve Board on 30 September?
One of the four board removals the courts tested in 2025 left the official in office a month later, and it was Cook's.
YesResolved 30 Sep 2026
Sports30 Sep
Does any Premier League club dismiss a permanent manager or head coach on or before 30 Sep 2026?
Three of the last eight Premier League seasons had a manager sacked by 30 September, four of nine counting 2017-18.
38%NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Sports30 Sep
Is any of the nine new Premier League managers from the opening weekend sacked by 30 Sep?
Three of the last eight Premier League seasons had a manager sacked by 30 September, four of nine counting 2017-18.
NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Politics30 Sep
Does the White House or North Korea announce a planned Trump–Kim meeting by 30 September?
Pyongyang escalated within a year after three of the four stand-downs. Only the 1994 freeze held, and it died in 2002.
NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Politics30 Sep
Does Mykhailo Fedorov announce a political party or a presidential candidacy by 30 September 2026?
Senior officials fell within days every time investigators moved. None of the four crises shifted the election question.
NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Finance30 Sep
Does Frasers disclose a Hugo Boss stake above 50% by 30 September 2026?
Three of the last five Frasers stake-building campaigns ended in ownership; the two that failed met a bloc they could not out-vote.
3 of 5NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Tech30 Sep
Does the Competition and Markets Authority publish its decision on Apple app steering by 30 Sep?
Four of the CMA's five decisions under the new regime came within 78 days of the responses being published.
NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Finance30 Sep
Where does the AstraZeneca–Bristol Myers deal stand on 30 Sep 2026?
Two of the last five leaked UK pharma megadeals produced an agreed offer, and all five reached a definitive answer inside six weeks.
No formal statement either wayResolved 30 Sep 2026
Politics30 Sep
Does the government withdraw, correct or apologise for the 'in error' letters by 30 Sep?
Two of three Home Office status errors since 2014 were corrected; the one it kept defending, TOEIC, never was.
2 of 3NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Politics30 Sep
Does the government grant development consent for Jackdaw by 30 Sep 2026?
All four of the last four early Labour revolts since 1997 failed on the day; three of the four won the substance back later.
4 of 4NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Politics30 Sep
Does a minister or aide resign over North Sea policy by 30 Sep 2026?
All four of the last four early Labour revolts since 1997 failed on the day; three of the four won the substance back later.
NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Tech30 Sep
Does Gemini 3.5 Pro reach general availability by 30 September 2026?
Three of the four Google episodes here ended with the product shipped or restored inside a quarter.
NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Finance30 Sep
Does Brent crude settle below $72.50, its last close before the 28 February strikes, on any day before 30 Sep 2026?
In two of four Gulf supply shocks since 1991 the premium was gone within weeks; in the other two it lingered nine months or more.
NoResolved 30 Sep 2026
Politics29 Sep
Does the Riksdag elect a prime minister by 29 September?
In 6 of the last 9 Swedish elections that changed the prime minister, the new one took office on day 19 exactly.
33%NoResolved 29 Sep 2026
Politics29 Sep
Does Andy Burnham's first Trump meeting end in a joint statement?
Of the last 6 first UK-US summit talks, 1 ended in a joint statement that day and 2 within a month.
17%NoResolved 29 Sep 2026
Finance29 Sep
Do August mortgage approvals for house purchase top July's 56,053?
In five of the six loosenings of UK mortgage rules since 2013, approvals rose within three months. This time they fell.
83%NoResolved 29 Sep 2026
Finance29 Sep
Does net mortgage borrowing top £5bn in the Bank's August data?
In five of the six loosenings of UK mortgage rules since 2013, approvals rose within three months. This time they fell.
NoResolved 29 Sep 2026
Culture28 Sep
Are all 22 Oasis UK and Ireland 2027 dates sold out by 28 Sep?
Five of the last six big stadium and festival sales sold out within a month of the announcement; Beyoncé's 2025 London run did not.
83%YesResolved 28 Sep 2026
Politics27 Sep
Will Swiss voters accept the neutrality initiative on 27 September?
One of five Swiss votes since 2012 on plans to limit the government's hand abroad passed: the 2014 immigration quotas.
1 of 5NoResolved 27 Sep 2026
Politics27 Sep
Will the yes vote beat the last SRG poll's 34% on 27 September?
One of five Swiss votes since 2012 on plans to limit the government's hand abroad passed: the 2014 immigration quotas.
3 of 4NoResolved 27 Sep 2026
Politics27 Sep
Will more than 40% of voters back the neutrality initiative?
One of five Swiss votes since 2012 on plans to limit the government's hand abroad passed: the 2014 immigration quotas.
2 of 5NoResolved 27 Sep 2026
Sports27 Sep
Does Tigst Assefa break the 2:09:56 world record in Berlin?
In six of nine races where the favourite ran at world record pace from the start, the record fell.
67%NoResolved 27 Sep 2026
Sports27 Sep
Does Tigst Assefa beat her own best of 2:11:53 in Berlin?
In six of nine races where the favourite ran at world record pace from the start, the record fell.
78%YesResolved 27 Sep 2026
Politics27 Sep
Does Romania's parliament back a Muresan government by 27 Sep?
Three of the last five Romanian nominees won confidence inside ten days. No vote in the record came later than day nine.
3 of 5NoResolved 27 Sep 2026
Politics27 Sep
Does a confidence vote on a Romanian government happen by 27 Sep?
Three of the last five Romanian nominees won confidence inside ten days. No vote in the record came later than day nine.
4 of 5NoResolved 27 Sep 2026
Politics27 Sep
Does the UK announce new Russia sanctions or Ukraine aid by 27 Sep?
Seven of the last eight Russian strikes near Western visitors or Western targets led to new UK sanctions or aid within 14 days.
88%NoResolved 27 Sep 2026
Politics27 Sep
Does Poland seek Article 4 talks or NATO meet on it by 27 Sep?
Seven of the last eight Russian strikes near Western visitors or Western targets led to new UK sanctions or aid within 14 days.
NoResolved 27 Sep 2026
Politics27 Sep
Does the FCDO summon Russia's envoy over the strike by 27 Sep?
Seven of the last eight Russian strikes near Western visitors or Western targets led to new UK sanctions or aid within 14 days.
NoResolved 27 Sep 2026
Politics27 Sep
Are 10 or more charged over the Portsmouth protests by 27 Sep?
Two of three protest series that came back for a second weekend went on to a third with arrests. Knowsley in 2023 did not.
NoResolved 27 Sep 2026
Politics27 Sep
Does Burnham or Bryant answer Trump's united Ireland line by 27 Sep?
Four of the last eight US interventions on Northern Ireland drew a reply in the PM's or NI Secretary's own name within seven days.
50%NoResolved 27 Sep 2026
Tech26 Sep
Does OpenAI, Anthropic or xAI delay a named model release by 13 Oct?
Three of the last eight calls by AI chiefs to slow or regulate the industry drew a formal UK response inside 30 days, all in 2023.
YesResolved 26 Sep 2026
Politics26 Sep
Do Iranian and Gulf officials meet on Hormuz by 26 Sep 2026?
Two of the last six Gulf openings to Iran produced an agreement within 30 days; the other four ran on for months or lapsed.
NoResolved 26 Sep 2026
Politics25 Sep
Does the government or CAA open a new Nats review by 22 October?
In six of eight big UK infrastructure breakdowns since 2019, a department or a regulator ordered a new review within a month.
75%YesResolved 25 Sep 2026
Politics25 Sep
Does United Russia win 325 or more of the 450 State Duma seats in the September election?
Six of the last eight regimes that struck an opposition party from a national ballot posted a bigger ruling-party result next.
75%YesResolved 25 Sep 2026
Politics25 Sep
Does the CAA publish the scope of its Nats review by 10 October?
In all seven system failures at national air traffic operators since 2014, the chief executive was still in post a month later.
YesResolved 25 Sep 2026
Politics25 Sep
Does United Russia take more than 50% of the party-list vote in the 18-20 Sep 2026 Duma election?
Three of eight Duma elections since 1993 gave the largest party 300 seats or more; all three were United Russia.
YesResolved 25 Sep 2026
Politics25 Sep
Is turnout in the 18-20 Sep 2026 Duma election above 51.7%?
Three of eight Duma elections since 1993 gave the largest party 300 seats or more; all three were United Russia.
YesResolved 25 Sep 2026
Regional25 Sep
Does the housing ministry name further Social and Affordable Homes Programme allocations by 25 Sep?
None of the last eight years of MHCLG completions passed 13,000 social rent homes; only the first of the thirteen did, at 17,580.
NoResolved 25 Sep 2026
Politics24 Sep
Will the US ask the Supreme Court to pause the ruling by 5 Oct?
6 of 11 appeal losses in immigration cases since 2025 reached the Supreme Court within 17 days. The record stops at day 21.
55%YesResolved 24 Sep 2026
Politics24 Sep
Will the US ask the Supreme Court to pause the ruling by 2 Nov?
6 of 11 appeal losses in immigration cases since 2025 reached the Supreme Court within 17 days. The record stops at day 21.
64%YesResolved 24 Sep 2026
Politics24 Sep
Is a resolution against the F-35 sale filed by 15 October?
In 5 of the last 11 Gulf arms notifications the Senate held a recorded vote within the 30-day review.
YesResolved 24 Sep 2026
Politics24 Sep
Do England housing starts rise on the quarter in the 24 Sep release?
Four of the last eight ministerial admissions that a target would be missed were followed by a formal rewrite within 60 days.
YesResolved 24 Sep 2026
Politics23 Sep
Does the US let the Iran airline wind-down licence end on 23 Sep?
In seven of eight US aviation or shipping restrictions with a named start date since 2018, the rule came into force on that day.
88%YesResolved 23 Sep 2026
Culture23 Sep
Do Oasis add another UK or Ireland 2027 date by 16 Oct?
Five of the last six big stadium and festival sales sold out within a month of the announcement; Beyoncé's 2025 London run did not.
YesResolved 23 Sep 2026
Politics23 Sep
Is an Asian Games cricket match cut short by rain by 22 September?
Eight of the last eight major games hit by heavy weather at their venues moved, rescheduled or abandoned an event within days.
YesResolved 23 Sep 2026
Tech23 Sep
Does Washington or Westminster act to restrain frontier AI by 9 October?
One of the last eight insider warnings about catastrophic AI risk was followed within 30 days by a step that restrained a model.
12%YesResolved 23 Sep 2026
Regional23 Sep
Does the agenda for Cornwall Council's cabinet on 23 Sep include devolution or a strategic authority?
None of the six English devolution deals published without a mayor since 2015 carried a power to raise money.
NoResolved 23 Sep 2026
Finance22 Sep
Does US diesel cost $2 a gallon more than petrol by 5 October?
Three of the last six US diesel record runs cleared 4 per cent within four weeks. All six set a further record in that window.
YesResolved 22 Sep 2026
Finance22 Sep
Does Brent fall back below $100 before 10 October?
Five of the last eight moves back above $100 unwound inside 30 days; the three that stuck were in 2011 and 2026.
62%YesResolved 22 Sep 2026
Finance22 Sep
Does UK average petrol reach 170p a litre by 6 October?
Five of the last eight moves back above $100 unwound inside 30 days; the three that stuck were in 2011 and 2026.
YesResolved 22 Sep 2026
Finance22 Sep
Is UK public debt above £2,994.8bn in the August figures published on 22 September?
Four of the last eight times net debt fell from a record, the next month set a new one; over the series since 1993 it is 22 of 62.
50%NoResolved 22 Sep 2026
Finance22 Sep
Does public sector net debt exceed £3 trillion in the 22 Sep 2026 ONS release?
Four of the last eight times net debt fell from a record, the next month set a new one; over the series since 1993 it is 22 of 62.
NoResolved 22 Sep 2026
Finance22 Sep
Does August 2026 borrowing exceed the £14.9bn recorded for August 2025?
Four of the last eight times net debt fell from a record, the next month set a new one; over the series since 1993 it is 22 of 62.
YesResolved 22 Sep 2026
Finance22 Sep
Do the figures out on 22 September show April to August borrowing above the March forecast?
Three of the last four times borrowing ran above forecast into a fiscal event, the chancellor answered with tax rises.
YesResolved 22 Sep 2026
Finance22 Sep
Will GBP/USD close above $1.3181 on 22 September 2026?
Sterling was higher three months on in two of the last five prime-ministerial resignations.
2 of 5YesResolved 22 Sep 2026
Politics21 Sep
Will CNN, MS NOW or Politico sue over the ban by 3 October?
2 of the last 8 outlets cut off by the US federal executive sued over access. The two suits came on day 10 and day 50.
25%YesResolved 21 Sep 2026
Politics21 Sep
Does Portsmouth see a third weekend protest with arrests by 21 Sep?
Two of three protest series that came back for a second weekend went on to a third with arrests. Knowsley in 2023 did not.
2 of 3NoResolved 21 Sep 2026
Finance21 Sep
Does California's average diesel reach $8 by 21 September?
Three of the last six US diesel record runs cleared 4 per cent within four weeks. All six set a further record in that window.
YesResolved 21 Sep 2026
Politics21 Sep
Do the Asian Games move or cancel an event for weather by 20 September?
Eight of the last eight major games hit by heavy weather at their venues moved, rescheduled or abandoned an event within days.
100%NoResolved 21 Sep 2026
Politics21 Sep
Does United Russia win at least 300 of the 450 Duma seats?
Three of eight Duma elections since 1993 gave the largest party 300 seats or more; all three were United Russia.
38%YesResolved 21 Sep 2026
Politics20 Sep
Does the AfD win most second votes in Mecklenburg on 20 September?
All seven German state votes since 2023 with a final-poll lead of 3 points or more went to the poll leader.
100%YesResolved 20 Sep 2026
Politics20 Sep
Does Die Linke win most second votes in Berlin on 20 September?
All seven German state votes since 2023 with a final-poll lead of 3 points or more went to the poll leader.
2 of 4YesResolved 20 Sep 2026
Sports20 Sep
Is Matt Donohue left out of all Premier League games on 18-20 Sep?
Seven of the last eight officials named in an admitted refereeing error were left out of the next Premier League round.
88%YesResolved 20 Sep 2026
Culture20 Sep
Did the Toronto People's Choice winner have its world premiere at the festival?
Five of the last eight TIFF People's Choice winners had their world premiere in Toronto.
62%NoResolved 20 Sep 2026
Tech20 Sep
Is a foldable iPhone in Apple stores on or before 20 September 2026?
All of the last eight base flagship iPhones reached stores by the second Friday after the keynote.
NoResolved 20 Sep 2026
Politics20 Sep
Does North Korea launch another ballistic missile by 20 September 2026?
Pyongyang escalated within a year after three of the four stand-downs. Only the 1994 freeze held, and it died in 2002.
3 of 4YesResolved 20 Sep 2026
Politics19 Sep
Does Kristersson's bloc win more Riksdag seats than the left bloc in the 13 Sep 2026 election?
Four of the last eight Swedish governments kept the seat count and stayed in office at the election; 2010 and 2018 were the close ones, the last by a single seat.
50%NoResolved 19 Sep 2026
Politics19 Sep
Do the Liberals reach 4.00% of the national vote in the final count of the 13 Sep 2026 election?
Four of the last eight Swedish governments kept the seat count and stayed in office at the election; 2010 and 2018 were the close ones, the last by a single seat.
YesResolved 19 Sep 2026
Tech18 Sep
Is GPT-6 Astra available to free ChatGPT users by 18 September?
Five of the last eight GPT versions with a traceable rollout reached free ChatGPT users within 15 days; three stayed behind paid plans.
62%NoResolved 18 Sep 2026
Politics18 Sep
Will the Home Office weekly figure for the week ending 13 September 2026 record more than 500 small boat arrivals?
Two of the four ministerial claims of a fall in crossings since 2023 were matched by the following thirty days.
YesResolved 18 Sep 2026
Finance18 Sep
Does the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate on 18 September?
The Bank of Japan raised rates at the next meeting after two of the six yen-buying runs since 1998, and both were the two most recent.
33%YesResolved 18 Sep 2026
Tech18 Sep
Is any new iPhone on sale in Apple stores by 18 September?
All of the last eight base flagship iPhones reached stores by the second Friday after the keynote.
100%YesResolved 18 Sep 2026
Tech18 Sep
Is a foldable iPhone available to pre-order by 18 September?
All of the last eight base flagship iPhones reached stores by the second Friday after the keynote.
NoResolved 18 Sep 2026
Politics18 Sep
Does Russia threaten Britain again over its military support for Ukraine between 8 and 25 September?
Four of the last four British firsts for Ukraine drew a threat from Moscow, and none was followed by an attack on Britain.
YesResolved 18 Sep 2026
Finance17 Sep
Does the Bank cut yearly bond sales to £50bn or less on 17 Sep?
Five of the last eight central bank decisions taken under pressure to slow bond sales cut the pace, dropped a bucket or ended sales.
62%YesResolved 17 Sep 2026
Finance17 Sep
Does the Bank drop long-dated bonds from its sales plan on 17 Sep?
Five of the last eight central bank decisions taken under pressure to slow bond sales cut the pace, dropped a bucket or ended sales.
NoResolved 17 Sep 2026
Finance17 Sep
Does the MPC hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September?
Five of the last eight MPC decisions taken after a 10% oil jump were holds; the three raises all came inside a cycle already running.
62%YesResolved 17 Sep 2026
Finance17 Sep
Do three or more MPC members vote for a rise on 17 September?
Five of the last eight MPC decisions taken after a 10% oil jump were holds; the three raises all came inside a cycle already running.
YesResolved 17 Sep 2026
Finance17 Sep
Do four or more MPC members vote to raise Bank Rate on 17 September?
Five of the last eight times a Bank governor warned at a rate press conference or a select committee that inflation would rise, the next core CPI print was higher; six of nine on the full record.
NoResolved 17 Sep 2026
Politics17 Sep
Does Kristersson survive the Riksdag's mandatory prime minister vote and stay in office by 31 Oct 2026?
Four of the last eight Swedish governments kept the seat count and stayed in office at the election; 2010 and 2018 were the close ones, the last by a single seat.
NoResolved 17 Sep 2026
Tech17 Sep
Will the CMA formally commence its Phase 1 investigation into Sky's acquisition of ITV M&E Holdings on or before 17 September 2026?
Four of the last eight CMA merger files started the Phase 1 clock within 56 days of opening; since May 2025 it is 16 of 29.
50%NoResolved 17 Sep 2026
Regional17 Sep
Does Scotland name the two strategic health boards by 17 Sep 2026?
Seven of the last eight Scottish Bills to merge a tier of area bodies passed as introduced; the National Care Service lost its centre.
NoResolved 17 Sep 2026
Regional17 Sep
Will the Scottish Government name a start date for the national rollout of the £2 bus fare cap before 17 September 2026?
Four of the four Scottish fare schemes since 2021 started on the day named; it is the end dates that move.
NoResolved 17 Sep 2026
Regional17 Sep
Do NHS Wales figures published 17 Sep 2026 show more pathways waiting over two years in July than in June?
Four of the last six cash injections for the longest waits in Wales and England saw a lower two-year count the next full month.
YesResolved 17 Sep 2026
Regional17 Sep
Do NHS Wales figures published 17 Sep 2026 show more than 705,000 open pathways in July?
Four of the last six cash injections for the longest waits in Wales and England saw a lower two-year count the next full month.
YesResolved 17 Sep 2026
Finance17 Sep
Does the MPC hold or cut Bank Rate at its decision on 17 September 2026?
In three of the last four episodes of falling vacancies and cooling pay, the MPC's next decision was a hold or a cut. The exception had pay growth twice today's.
3 of 4YesResolved 17 Sep 2026
Regional16 Sep
Does Piddington's vote pass 90% for leaving the UK on 16 Sep?
Two of the last eight local revolts against a Home Office asylum site went to court within a month; two sites opened within 90 days.
YesResolved 16 Sep 2026
Finance16 Sep
Does the Fed hold its target range at 3.50–3.75% on 16 September?
Five of the last eight MPC decisions taken after a 10% oil jump were holds; the three raises all came inside a cycle already running.
NoResolved 16 Sep 2026
Tech16 Sep
Does the EU AI Office act on the slowdown call by 13 Oct?
Three of the last eight calls by AI chiefs to slow or regulate the industry drew a formal UK response inside 30 days, all in 2023.
YesResolved 16 Sep 2026
Politics16 Sep
Does the government confirm Nats delivered its report by 16 September?
In all seven system failures at national air traffic operators since 2014, the chief executive was still in post a month later.
NoResolved 16 Sep 2026
Finance16 Sep
Does core CPI print above 2.6 per cent in the ONS release on 16 September?
Five of the last eight times a Bank governor warned at a rate press conference or a select committee that inflation would rise, the next core CPI print was higher; six of nine on the full record.
62%NoResolved 16 Sep 2026
Finance16 Sep
Does annual food CPI print above 1.3 per cent on 16 September?
Five of the last eight times a Bank governor warned at a rate press conference or a select committee that inflation would rise, the next core CPI print was higher; six of nine on the full record.
NoResolved 16 Sep 2026
Finance16 Sep
Does a UK minister publicly mark McLaren's £450m investment by 9 Oct?
Six of the last eight comparable UK car investment pledges drew a public government mark within 30 days; nine of eleven overall.
75%YesResolved 16 Sep 2026
Finance16 Sep
Does McLaren publish its own statement on the £450m by 9 Oct?
Six of the last eight comparable UK car investment pledges drew a public government mark within 30 days; nine of eleven overall.
YesResolved 16 Sep 2026
Finance16 Sep
Is Cook recorded as voting at the 15 and 16 September 2026 FOMC meeting?
One of the four board removals the courts tested in 2025 left the official in office a month later, and it was Cook's.
YesResolved 16 Sep 2026
Finance16 Sep
Does the August 2026 CPI 12-month rate, published by the ONS on 16 September, print higher than 2.9 per cent?
Two of the last eight times inflation turned up after a run without a rise, the next month printed higher again; over the full record since 1989 it is 16 of 38.
25%YesResolved 16 Sep 2026
Finance16 Sep
What will the August 2026 CPI 12-month rate print at on 16 September?
Two of the last eight times inflation turned up after a run without a rise, the next month printed higher again; over the full record since 1989 it is 16 of 38.
3.1% or higherResolved 16 Sep 2026
Finance16 Sep
Does the FOMC hold or raise the federal funds target range at its meeting on 15 and 16 September 2026?
All four of the last four new Fed chairs met an early market test by tightening or standing firm at the next decision, never by easing.
4 of 4YesResolved 16 Sep 2026
Finance16 Sep
Does the Fed raise the target range at the 15–16 September 2026 meeting?
All four of the last four new Fed chairs met an early market test by tightening or standing firm at the next decision, never by easing.
YesResolved 16 Sep 2026
Finance16 Sep
Does at least one member vote against the policy action in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026?
All four of the last four new Fed chairs met an early market test by tightening or standing firm at the next decision, never by easing.
NoResolved 16 Sep 2026
Finance16 Sep
Is a Frasers nominee named to Hugo Boss's supervisory board by 31 October 2026?
Three of the last five Frasers stake-building campaigns ended in ownership; the two that failed met a bloc they could not out-vote.
YesResolved 16 Sep 2026
Sports15 Sep
Does Pro Ref release the VAR audio of Haaland's goal by 30 Sep?
Seven of the last eight officials named in an admitted refereeing error were left out of the next Premier League round.
YesResolved 15 Sep 2026
Politics15 Sep
Does Wandsworth Council propose a council tax rise of 100 per cent or more for 2027-28 by 30 September?
Seven of the last eight councils asking to break the council tax limit were allowed to, by between 1.75 and 4 points.
YesResolved 15 Sep 2026
Politics15 Sep
Does another minister or presidential office deputy leave by 15 Sep 2026?
Senior officials fell within days every time investigators moved. None of the four crises shifted the election question.
4 of 4NoResolved 15 Sep 2026
Finance15 Sep
Is the headline three-month vacancies estimate published in the ONS labour market release of 15 September 2026 below 700,000?
In three of the last four episodes of falling vacancies and cooling pay, the MPC's next decision was a hold or a cut. The exception had pay growth twice today's.
NoResolved 15 Sep 2026
Finance15 Sep
Does the same ONS release of 15 September 2026 report a further monthly fall in payrolled employees?
In three of the last four episodes of falling vacancies and cooling pay, the MPC's next decision was a hold or a cut. The exception had pay growth twice today's.
YesResolved 15 Sep 2026
Regional15 Sep
Will Northern Ireland's unemployment rate published 15 Sept 2026 be below 2.0%?
Seven of the last eight Northern Ireland readings below 2 per cent were followed by another; the full record is fourteen of sixteen.
88%NoResolved 15 Sep 2026
Regional15 Sep
Is Northern Ireland's economic inactivity rate for those aged 16 and over above 41.0% in the Labour Market Report published 15 Sept 2026?
Seven of the last eight Northern Ireland readings below 2 per cent were followed by another; the full record is fourteen of sixteen.
NoResolved 15 Sep 2026
Politics14 Sep
Does the minister promise a government cap amendment on 14 Sep?
None of the 8 big rival donations since 2001 led to a cap on donations within 31 days.
NoResolved 14 Sep 2026
Finance14 Sep
Does the US average diesel price reach $6.21 by 5 October?
Three of the last six US diesel record runs cleared 4 per cent within four weeks. All six set a further record in that window.
50%YesResolved 14 Sep 2026
Regional14 Sep
Is a start date for Wirral's franchised buses published by 25 Sep?
All four English bus franchising phases since 2023 started in the month their authority named.
YesResolved 14 Sep 2026
Culture14 Sep
Is 'Choosin' Texas' still No. 1 on the Hot 100 dated 19 September?
Seven of the last eight long Hot 100 reigns ended by week 19; the only one to go further was a Christmas song, over seven Decembers.
12%YesResolved 14 Sep 2026
Culture14 Sep
Does The Pitt win Outstanding Drama Series on 14 September?
Five of the last eight reigning drama winners nominated again kept the Emmy; the three that lost were Mad Men in 2012, Homeland in 2013 and The Handmaid's Tale in 2018.
62%YesResolved 14 Sep 2026
Culture14 Sep
Does Noah Wyle win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series at the Emmys on 14 Sep 2026?
Five of the last eight reigning drama winners nominated again kept the Emmy; the three that lost were Mad Men in 2012, Homeland in 2013 and The Handmaid's Tale in 2018.
YesResolved 14 Sep 2026
Sports13 Sep
Does a world record fall in an individual event in Budapest?
One of the last six Diamond League finals produced a senior world record: two fell in Eugene in 2023, none in the other five years.
17%NoResolved 13 Sep 2026
Sports13 Sep
Do British athletes win at least two Ultimate titles?
One of the last six Diamond League finals produced a senior world record: two fell in Eugene in 2023, none in the other five years.
NoResolved 13 Sep 2026
Sports13 Sep
Does Europe win the 2026 Solheim Cup outright on 13 September?
Four of the last eight Solheim Cups were won by the home side, three by the visitors and one was tied; the Americans defend in the Netherlands.
50%YesResolved 13 Sep 2026
Sports13 Sep
Is the 2026 Solheim Cup decided by four points or more on 13 September?
Four of the last eight Solheim Cups were won by the home side, three by the visitors and one was tied; the Americans defend in the Netherlands.
NoResolved 13 Sep 2026
Sports13 Sep
Does any Premier League club dismiss a permanent manager or head coach on or before 13 Sep 2026?
Three of the last eight Premier League seasons had a manager sacked by 30 September, four of nine counting 2017-18.
NoResolved 13 Sep 2026
Sports12 Sep
Does the US Open women's final go to three sets on 12 September?
Seven of the last eight changes at the top of the WTA rankings survived four weeks. Those eight are the full record since 2019.
YesResolved 12 Sep 2026
Politics12 Sep
Does a force ban face coverings at a protest by 30 September 2026?
Four of the last six home secretaries who told police to use existing powers announced new powers or a review inside 30 days.
YesResolved 12 Sep 2026
Politics12 Sep
Is anyone charged over the Dover or Portsmouth protests by 9 Oct?
Four of the last six home secretaries who told police to use existing powers announced new powers or a review inside 30 days.
YesResolved 12 Sep 2026
Sports12 Sep
Does Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 US Open women's singles title on 12 September?
One of the last eight defending US Open women's champions kept the title, Sabalenka herself in 2025; the other seven lost by the quarter-finals.
12%NoResolved 12 Sep 2026
Politics12 Sep
Will the Home Office weekly figure for the week ending 6 September 2026 record more than 500 small boat arrivals?
Two of the four ministerial claims of a fall in crossings since 2023 were matched by the following thirty days.
YesResolved 12 Sep 2026
Culture12 Sep
Is Ink named in the official awards of the Venezia 83 competition jury announced on 12 September 2026?
Three of the last eight films that opened Venice in competition took an official award, each a Volpi Cup for acting; none won the Golden Lion.
38%NoResolved 12 Sep 2026
Culture12 Sep
Does a Volpi Cup for best actor or best actress go to Jack O'Connell, Guy Pearce or Claire Foy for Ink on 12 September 2026?
Three of the last eight films that opened Venice in competition took an official award, each a Volpi Cup for acting; none won the Golden Lion.
NoResolved 12 Sep 2026
Sports12 Sep
Is Cody Gakpo listed in a Liverpool matchday squad in any competitive fixture on or before 30 Sep 2026?
Four of the last eight approaches by a Premier League club for a rival's forward ended in a sale before the window shut.
YesResolved 12 Sep 2026
Sports11 Sep
Does Duplantis raise the pole vault world record in Budapest?
One of the last six Diamond League finals produced a senior world record: two fell in Eugene in 2023, none in the other five years.
NoResolved 11 Sep 2026
Sports11 Sep
Does Aryna Sabalenka reach the 2026 US Open women's singles final on 12 September?
One of the last eight defending US Open women's champions kept the title, Sabalenka herself in 2025; the other seven lost by the quarter-finals.
YesResolved 11 Sep 2026
Politics11 Sep
Will the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill carry its second reading on 11 September 2026?
Four of the five conscience bills of this kind since 1964 cleared second reading; the one that failed was assisted dying, in 2015.
NoResolved 11 Sep 2026
Politics11 Sep
What will the second reading majority be on 11 September?
Four of the five conscience bills of this kind since 1964 cleared second reading; the one that failed was assisted dying, in 2015.
Defeated, or no division reachedResolved 11 Sep 2026
Politics11 Sep
Are Lee Cheuk-yan and Chow Hang-tung sentenced by 30 September 2026?
Three of the last four national security convictions were followed by sentence within a fortnight. The 47 democrats waited six months.
3 of 4YesResolved 11 Sep 2026
Politics11 Sep
Is either defendant sentenced to five years or more by 30 October 2026?
Three of the last four national security convictions were followed by sentence within a fortnight. The 47 democrats waited six months.
YesResolved 11 Sep 2026
Finance11 Sep
Does the 30-year US Treasury par yield close above 5.31 per cent, its 2026 high, on or before 11 September 2026?
Three of the last five routs peaked within days of the intervention, and only when the intervention changed real supply or demand.
3 of 5YesResolved 11 Sep 2026
Finance11 Sep
Does the 30-year US Treasury par yield close below 5.00 per cent on or before 11 September 2026?
Three of the last five routs peaked within days of the intervention, and only when the intervention changed real supply or demand.
NoResolved 11 Sep 2026
Culture11 Sep
Does Spider-Man: Brand New Day reach $2.2bn worldwide by 11 September 2026?
Two of the last four films to cross $2bn on a first run kept earning afterwards, and both crossed fast.
2 of 4YesResolved 11 Sep 2026
Finance11 Sep
Does monthly GDP growth for July 2026, published by the ONS on 11 September, print above 0.0 per cent?
Four of the last eight rebounds of 0.3 per cent or more after a flat or falling month were followed by growth; over the full series since 1997 it is 40 of 68.
50%YesResolved 11 Sep 2026
Finance11 Sep
Will monthly GDP growth for July 2026 be 0.2 per cent or higher?
Four of the last eight rebounds of 0.3 per cent or more after a flat or falling month were followed by growth; over the full series since 1997 it is 40 of 68.
YesResolved 11 Sep 2026
Politics11 Sep
Does a minister address the 'in error' letters in the Commons, via statement or urgent question, by 11 September 2026?
Two of three Home Office status errors since 2014 were corrected; the one it kept defending, TOEIC, never was.
NoResolved 11 Sep 2026
Sports10 Sep
Do the Seahawks beat the Patriots on 9 September?
Defending champions have won five of the last eight NFL kickoff games they played, and 16 of 21 since the game became theirs in 2004.
62%YesResolved 10 Sep 2026
Politics10 Sep
Does the government publish its response to the England visitor levy consultation by 30 September?
Two of the five local levies promised by UK governments since 2007 reached a Bill within twelve months.
YesResolved 10 Sep 2026
Finance10 Sep
Does the ECB raise the deposit facility rate on 10 September 2026?
In two of the four ECB tightening cycles since 1999 a third rise followed the second within eight weeks.
YesResolved 10 Sep 2026
Regional10 Sep
Will the Home Heating Oil Support Scheme open for applications on 9 Sept 2026?
All seven dates named since 2022 for a household support payment in Northern Ireland were kept.
100%YesResolved 10 Sep 2026
Regional10 Sep
Does the Department for Communities give a number of heating oil applications or vouchers by 25 Sep?
All seven dates named since 2022 for a household support payment in Northern Ireland were kept.
YesResolved 10 Sep 2026
Sports09 Sep
Does Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title on 13 September?
One of the last six major champions who made a Grand Slam their first tournament after four or more months out went on to win it; two of the six reached the final.
17%NoResolved 09 Sep 2026
Sports09 Sep
Does Carlos Alcaraz reach the 2026 US Open men's singles final on 13 September?
One of the last six major champions who made a Grand Slam their first tournament after four or more months out went on to win it; two of the six reached the final.
NoResolved 09 Sep 2026
Sports09 Sep
Is Brydon Carse named in England's squad for the third Test against Pakistan at Edgbaston on or before 9 Sep 2026?
Three of the last eight England players stood down mid-inquiry were back inside four weeks.
38%NoResolved 09 Sep 2026
Sports09 Sep
Does the Cricket Regulator or the ECB publish an outcome in the Carse case on or before 9 Sep 2026?
Three of the last eight England players stood down mid-inquiry were back inside four weeks.
NoResolved 09 Sep 2026
Culture09 Sep
Does the announced price of a Glastonbury 2027 general admission ticket, including booking fee, exceed £400 by 30 Sep 2026?
Three of the four Glastonbury sales here cleared in an hour or less; eight of the last nine did in the full record.
YesResolved 09 Sep 2026
Regional08 Sep
Will the £2 bus fare cap be in operation across the Strathclyde Partnership for Transport area on Monday 7 September 2026?
Four of the four Scottish fare schemes since 2021 started on the day named; it is the end dates that move.
YesResolved 08 Sep 2026
Politics08 Sep
Does the UK government announce a new measure targeting Israeli settlements on or before 14 October 2026?
Three of the last four pledged British measures on Israel landed inside about eight weeks. A settlement trade ban never has.
YesResolved 08 Sep 2026
Politics08 Sep
Will the UK ban settlement goods imports before 31 October 2026?
Three of the last four pledged British measures on Israel landed inside about eight weeks. A settlement trade ban never has.
YesResolved 08 Sep 2026
Sports08 Sep
Does Brydon Carse play a senior professional match in England, for England or Durham, by 30 Sep?
Three of the last eight England players stood down mid-inquiry were back inside four weeks.
YesResolved 08 Sep 2026
Tech07 Sep
Does the Cyber Security and Resilience Bill complete its Lords committee stage by 30 September 2026?
Three of the last four British digital laws reached the statute book and then waited on commencement orders before any duty applied.
YesResolved 07 Sep 2026
Sports07 Sep
Do Hull City sit outside the Premier League bottom three after three games, by 7 Sep 2026?
Two of the last five Championship play-off winners survived their first Premier League season, by opposite methods.
2 of 5YesResolved 07 Sep 2026
Politics06 Sep
Does the AfD finish first in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September?
Eight of the last eight German state elections with a ten-point final-poll lead ended with that party first.
100%YesResolved 06 Sep 2026
Politics06 Sep
Does the AfD take 40% or more of the Saxony-Anhalt vote?
Eight of the last eight German state elections with a ten-point final-poll lead ended with that party first.
YesResolved 06 Sep 2026
Finance06 Sep
Does OPEC+ announce a further output increase for October at its meeting on 6 Sep 2026?
Four of the seven Gulf attacks since 2019 that landed before an OPEC+ decision were followed by an output increase.
57%NoResolved 06 Sep 2026
Finance06 Sep
Does OPEC+ announce a pause in increases for October on 6 Sep 2026?
Four of the seven Gulf attacks since 2019 that landed before an OPEC+ decision were followed by an output increase.
YesResolved 06 Sep 2026
Sports06 Sep
Does Kimi Antonelli finish in the top three of the Italian Grand Prix on 6 September?
Five of the last seven championship leaders who started a race with an engine or gearbox penalty finished on the podium, and three of them won.
71%YesResolved 06 Sep 2026
Sports06 Sep
Does Kimi Antonelli win the Italian Grand Prix on 6 September?
Five of the last seven championship leaders who started a race with an engine or gearbox penalty finished on the podium, and three of them won.
YesResolved 06 Sep 2026
Sports06 Sep
Does a Mercedes driver win at Monza on 6 September?
Five of the last seven championship leaders who started a race with an engine or gearbox penalty finished on the podium, and three of them won.
YesResolved 06 Sep 2026
Tech04 Sep
Is GPT-6 Astra available to ChatGPT Plus subscribers by 11 September?
Five of the last eight GPT versions with a traceable rollout reached free ChatGPT users within 15 days; three stayed behind paid plans.
YesResolved 04 Sep 2026
Sports04 Sep
Will Barcola appear in a Liverpool matchday squad before 20 Sep 2026?
Three of the last four record fees agreed in the closing days of a window completed before it shut.
YesResolved 04 Sep 2026
Politics04 Sep
Are Lee Cheuk-yan and Chow Hang-tung sentenced on or before 4 September 2026, fourteen days after the verdict?
Three of the last four national security convictions were followed by sentence within a fortnight. The 47 democrats waited six months.
3 of 4NoResolved 04 Sep 2026
Finance02 Sep
Does the 30-year US Treasury par yield stay at or below its 17 August high of 5.31 per cent through 2 September 2026?
Three of the last five routs peaked within days of the intervention, and only when the intervention changed real supply or demand.
3 of 5YesResolved 02 Sep 2026
Politics01 Sep
Does Alex Norris make an oral statement to the House of Commons on the progression model on or before 18 Sep 2026?
Three of the four times ministers have narrowed a release scheme after announcing it, the timetable held.
YesResolved 01 Sep 2026
Sports01 Sep
Does Nottingham Forest sign a senior central midfielder before the summer window shuts on 1 September 2026?
All four qualifying Premier League sellers since 2023 restocked before the same deadline. Forest have two days left to make it five.
4 of 4YesResolved 01 Sep 2026
Sports01 Sep
Will Nottingham Forest sign a central midfielder between 30 August 2026 and the 23:00 BST deadline on 1 September 2026?
All four qualifying Premier League sellers since 2023 restocked before the same deadline. Forest have two days left to make it five.
NoResolved 01 Sep 2026
Sports01 Sep
Will Nottingham Forest pay a new club-record transfer fee between 30 August 2026 and the 23:00 BST deadline on 1 September 2026?
All four qualifying Premier League sellers since 2023 restocked before the same deadline. Forest have two days left to make it five.
NoResolved 01 Sep 2026
Sports01 Sep
Does Cody Gakpo complete a permanent transfer to Manchester City on or before 1 Sep 2026?
Four of the last eight approaches by a Premier League club for a rival's forward ended in a sale before the window shut.
50%NoResolved 01 Sep 2026
Sports01 Sep
Does Liverpool complete the permanent or loan departure of any senior forward on or before 1 Sep 2026?
Four of the last eight approaches by a Premier League club for a rival's forward ended in a sale before the window shut.
NoResolved 01 Sep 2026
Sports01 Sep
Will the largest completed Premier League fee of the summer 2026 window be paid to another Premier League club?
In three of four windows checked, the summer's biggest Premier League fee went to another Premier League club.
3 of 4YesResolved 01 Sep 2026
Sports01 Sep
Will both the Ndiaye and Richarlison deals be completed before the deadline?
In three of four windows checked, the summer's biggest Premier League fee went to another Premier League club.
NoResolved 01 Sep 2026
Sports01 Sep
Will another Premier League to Premier League transfer of £40m or more complete before the deadline?
In three of four windows checked, the summer's biggest Premier League fee went to another Premier League club.
YesResolved 01 Sep 2026
Culture01 Sep
Will the Met's end-of-Carnival total for 2026 exceed 400 arrests?
Three of the last seven Carnival arrest totals passed 400, including last year's 528; the run since 2022 has risen every year.
43%YesResolved 01 Sep 2026
Culture01 Sep
What arrest total does the Met report for Carnival 2026?
Three of the last seven Carnival arrest totals passed 400, including last year's 528; the run since 2022 has risen every year.
600 or moreResolved 01 Sep 2026
Sports01 Sep
Does Liverpool complete at least one further first-team signing, other than Barcola, before the 1 September deadline?
Three of the last four record fees agreed in the closing days of a window completed before it shut.
YesResolved 01 Sep 2026
Finance01 Sep
Do AstraZeneca or Bristol Myers Squibb formally confirm a merger agreement, or formally declare the talks over, via RNS by 1 September 2026?
Two of the last five leaked UK pharma megadeals produced an agreed offer, and all five reached a definitive answer inside six weeks.
2 of 5NoResolved 01 Sep 2026
Finance01 Sep
Do approvals for house purchase for July 2026 print above June's 58,200 in the Bank of England's Money and Credit release on 1 September?
Five of the six times approvals bounced after a fall of 10 per cent or more, the next month printed higher again; the exception was the winter of 2004-05.
83%NoResolved 01 Sep 2026
Finance01 Sep
Do approvals for house purchase exceed 60,000 in July 2026?
Five of the six times approvals bounced after a fall of 10 per cent or more, the next month printed higher again; the exception was the winter of 2004-05.
NoResolved 01 Sep 2026
Finance01 Sep
Where do July 2026 mortgage approvals land?
Five of the six times approvals bounced after a fall of 10 per cent or more, the next month printed higher again; the exception was the winter of 2004-05.
Below 58,000Resolved 01 Sep 2026
August 202684 resolved
Culture31 Aug
Does the Fringe Society report more than 2.5 million tickets issued for the 2026 Fringe in its closing release?
Five of the last eight Fringes cleared 2.5 million tickets, and the last two landed within a few thousand of each other.
62%YesResolved 31 Aug 2026
Culture31 Aug
Is the 2026 figure higher than 2025's 2,604,404 tickets?
Five of the last eight Fringes cleared 2.5 million tickets, and the last two landed within a few thousand of each other.
YesResolved 31 Aug 2026
Culture31 Aug
How many tickets does the Fringe Society report for 2026?
Five of the last eight Fringes cleared 2.5 million tickets, and the last two landed within a few thousand of each other.
2.65m or moreResolved 31 Aug 2026
Sports31 Aug
Will Liverpool announce Bradley Barcola before the 1 September deadline?
Three of the last four record fees agreed in the closing days of a window completed before it shut.
3 of 4YesResolved 31 Aug 2026
Sports31 Aug
Does Pogacar lead the general classification at the first rest day, 31 Aug?
Reigning Tour champions have tried the autumn double three times. One converted, and all three finished on the podium.
NoResolved 31 Aug 2026
Sports31 Aug
Does Ben Stokes publicly reverse his refusal to play the 2027 Ashes by 31 Aug 2026?
Three of the last five England talismans who declared themselves finished came back.
3 of 5NoResolved 31 Aug 2026
Finance31 Aug
Does the Chancellor announce a new bank levy or a higher bank surcharge by 31 Aug 2026?
Levies came at a new government's first Budget or in a crisis; refusals came mid-term. October is a first Budget.
3 of 5NoResolved 31 Aug 2026
Finance31 Aug
Do AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb announce an agreed merger by 31 Aug 2026?
Two of the last five leaked UK pharma megadeals produced an agreed offer, and all five reached a definitive answer inside six weeks.
2 of 5NoResolved 31 Aug 2026
Sports31 Aug
Does the FA withdraw support for Infantino's re-election by 31 Aug 2026?
Four identified organized-bloc challenges produced formal nominees. Three reached a ballot, and two incumbents won. The no-bloc control is outside that count.
YesResolved 31 Aug 2026
Tech31 Aug
Does a drug candidate found with Claude Science enter a clinical trial by 31 Aug 2026?
AI reliably accelerates discovery. The clinic shows one positive mid-stage readout, one failure, one halted programme.
1 of 4NoResolved 31 Aug 2026
Sports30 Aug
What is the result of the Lord's Test, scheduled to end 31 Aug 2026?
Lord's has been Pakistan's most productive ground in England, and results there have far outnumbered draws since 1982.
England winResolved 30 Aug 2026
Sports30 Aug
Will England take a first-innings lead at Lord's by 31 Aug 2026?
Lord's has been Pakistan's most productive ground in England, and results there have far outnumbered draws since 1982.
YesResolved 30 Aug 2026
Sports30 Aug
Will England still lead the series going into Edgbaston on 9 Sep?
Lord's has been Pakistan's most productive ground in England, and results there have far outnumbered draws since 1982.
YesResolved 30 Aug 2026
Culture30 Aug
Is Spider-Man: Brand New Day the number one film at the North American box office for the weekend of 28-30 August 2026?
Two of the last four films to cross $2bn on a first run kept earning afterwards, and both crossed fast.
YesResolved 30 Aug 2026
Sports29 Aug
Does Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Vuelta a España overall?
Reigning Tour champions have tried the autumn double three times. One converted, and all three finished on the podium.
1 of 3NoResolved 29 Aug 2026
Sports29 Aug
Does Liverpool win either of its first two Premier League matches under Iraola, by 30 Aug 2026?
Sacking a title-winning manager won the league back inside two seasons twice, and buried Leicester.
2 of 5NoResolved 29 Aug 2026
Politics27 Aug
Does Russia publicly threaten the United Kingdom over British military support for Ukraine on or before 7 September 2026?
Four of the last four British firsts for Ukraine drew a threat from Moscow, and none was followed by an attack on Britain.
YesResolved 27 Aug 2026
Sports22 Aug
Does Pogacar win the stage one individual time trial in Monaco on 22 August 2026?
Reigning Tour champions have tried the autumn double three times. One converted, and all three finished on the podium.
YesResolved 22 Aug 2026
Finance22 Aug
Does the Treasury confirm by 31 Aug 2026 that the 2026 Budget will be held in October?
Four of the last five autumn fiscal events that followed a summer warning raised taxes, from 2021 to 2025.
YesResolved 22 Aug 2026
Regional19 Aug
Does ONS annual food CPI for July 2026 print at 2.0% or higher on 19 Aug?
Three of four drought summers since 1976 saw the retail price surge arrive months later; the driest, 1995, did not.
1 of 4NoResolved 19 Aug 2026
Regional19 Aug
Where does July 2026 food and non-alcoholic beverages annual CPI land?
Three of four drought summers since 1976 saw the retail price surge arrive months later; the driest, 1995, did not.
Below 1.5%Resolved 19 Aug 2026
Culture18 Aug
Is Matt Brittin still BBC director-general on 18 Aug 2026?
Half the director-generals since 1987 left in crisis, half on their own terms.
50%YesResolved 18 Aug 2026
Politics14 Aug
Does Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election on 13 Aug 2026 with more than 50% of votes cast?
17 of 19 MPs who resigned to re-fight their seat since 1982 won it back; both losers faced a major-party machine.
89%YesResolved 14 Aug 2026
Politics13 Aug
Who wins the Clacton by-election on 13 August?
17 of 19 MPs who resigned to re-fight their seat since 1982 won it back; both losers faced a major-party machine.
Nigel FarageResolved 13 Aug 2026
Politics13 Aug
Does Count Binface beat 20% of the vote in Clacton?
17 of 19 MPs who resigned to re-fight their seat since 1982 won it back; both losers faced a major-party machine.
YesResolved 13 Aug 2026
Tech10 Aug
When does Gemini 3.5 Pro reach general availability?
Three of the four Google episodes here ended with the product shipped or restored inside a quarter.
After 10 August 2026Resolved 10 Aug 2026
Politics10 Aug
Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct or trilateral talks by 10 Aug 2026?
Every stronghold Russia claimed did eventually fall, but the first claim ran days or weeks ahead of the fact.
NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Culture10 Aug
Does Glastonbury announce the exact date of the 2027 ticket sale by 10 Aug 2026?
Three of the four Glastonbury sales here cleared in an hour or less; eight of the last nine did in the full record.
NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Culture10 Aug
Will the British Museum announce extra 2026 Bayeux capacity — new ticket releases, a returns scheme or extended hours — by 10 Aug 2026?
Every modern blockbuster sellout ended with the institution adding capacity within the run. The mechanism differed.
3 of 3NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Tech10 Aug
Will Anthropic name a Claude Science pharma/biotech partner by 10 Aug 2026?
AI reliably accelerates discovery. The clinic shows one positive mid-stage readout, one failure, one halted programme.
NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Politics10 Aug
Will the BMA set new England resident doctor strike dates by 10 Aug 2026?
NHS pay deals always ended the immediate strikes. Only the most recent settlement saw strike dates return inside a year.
1 of 5NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Sports10 Aug
Do Hull City complete at least five permanent signings by 10 August 2026?
Two of the last five Championship play-off winners survived their first Premier League season, by opposite methods.
YesResolved 10 Aug 2026
Tech10 Aug
Does the White House set frontier model pre-release rules by 10 Aug 2026?
No preview-then-hold release since 2019 reached general availability within six weeks.
NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Culture10 Aug
What will Amazon MGM have officially confirmed for Bond 26 by 10 Aug 2026?
Previous handovers were settled between two and twenty months. This vacancy has now run for fifty-seven.
Nothing new on the recordResolved 10 Aug 2026
Culture10 Aug
What will Sinatra The Musical's status be at the Aldwych on 10 Aug 2026?
Landmark jukebox musicals either run for seven years or more or close within one. The middle barely exists.
Playing, booking unchanged to 10 Apr 2027Resolved 10 Aug 2026
Finance10 Aug
Will GBP/USD close below $1.30 before 10 August 2026?
Sterling was higher three months on in two of the last five prime-ministerial resignations.
NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Politics10 Aug
Who is Kosovo's prime minister on 10 August?
In two of Kosovo's last five elections a government won a confidence vote within two months; the worst took 199 days.
Kurti, still actingResolved 10 Aug 2026
Politics10 Aug
Will the Critical Minerals Alliance name members and a work plan by 10 Aug?
G7 pledges with a named mechanism and a hard number delivered. The umbrella initiatives did not. Évian is non-binding.
2 of 4NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Politics10 Aug
Who leads Romania's government on 10 August?
Half the censure collapses since 1989 were replaced within four weeks. Both long vacuums saw nominations fail.
Bolojan, still acting PMResolved 10 Aug 2026
Politics10 Aug
How many negotiating clusters will Ukraine have open on 10 August?
Most recent accession processes stalled for years after opening. Member-state politics decided it, not readiness.
TwoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Politics10 Aug
Will the Commission publish enlargement safeguard proposals by 10 Aug?
Most recent accession processes stalled for years after opening. Member-state politics decided it, not readiness.
NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Tech10 Aug
Does Starship Flight 13 lift off by 10 August 2026?
All but one of the biggest IPOs traded above their listing price a month later. Facebook was the exception.
NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Politics10 Aug
Will the government pledge defence spending above 2.68% of GDP by 10 Aug?
No resignation over a spending settlement reversed the number. The one partial reversal took a year and a war.
4 of 4NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Politics10 Aug
What happens to the Defence Investment Plan by 10 August?
No resignation over a spending settlement reversed the number. The one partial reversal took a year and a war.
Still unpublishedResolved 10 Aug 2026
Politics10 Aug
Will TfL publish e-bike licensing plans or a consultation by 10 Aug 2026?
No London micromobility scheme has moved from legal power to published rules in under eleven months.
0 of 3NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Politics10 Aug
Will the Timms Review's final report be published before 10 Aug 2026?
Only one welfare-savings package since 1997 delivered as announced. The rest were reversed, diluted or outgrown.
NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Tech10 Aug
Will Uber and Wayve begin public robotaxi rides in London by 10 Aug 2026?
Most announced robotaxi launch windows slipped, and the two that opened on time were narrower than promised.
33%NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Tech10 Aug
Will another UK startup announce a round of £200m or more by 10 Aug 2026?
Most recent UK deep-tech champions ended under foreign ownership or listed abroad. One stayed, on Japanese capital.
YesResolved 10 Aug 2026
Culture10 Aug
Where does Backrooms' worldwide total stand on 10 Aug 2026?
Of the comparable low-budget horror breakouts, only It cleared $400m. Backrooms sits at $350m with the decay ahead.
$375m–$400mResolved 10 Aug 2026
Tech10 Aug
Will the FTC file a formal complaint against Arm by 10 Aug 2026?
Only one chip antitrust action since 2009 produced a lasting regulator win, and none reached a complaint in a year.
1 of 4NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Tech10 Aug
Will NHS England issue a HomeTest notice, tender or pilot by 10 Aug 2026?
Incremental NHS App features delivered at national scale; the centrally procured mega-programme left a £12.7bn scar.
2 of 4NoResolved 10 Aug 2026
Sports09 Aug
Does Lorena Wiebes win the general classification of the 2026 Tour de France Femmes?
No opening-stage winner has gone on to win the Tour de France Femmes. The classification was settled in the mountains.
0 of 4NoResolved 09 Aug 2026
Sports09 Aug
Who wins the general classification of the 2026 Tour de France Femmes?
No opening-stage winner has gone on to win the Tour de France Femmes. The classification was settled in the mountains.
Demi VolleringResolved 09 Aug 2026
Sports09 Aug
Does Lorena Wiebes win the green points jersey in Nice?
No opening-stage winner has gone on to win the Tour de France Femmes. The classification was settled in the mountains.
YesResolved 09 Aug 2026
Culture07 Aug
How many weeks at No 1 will 'Rein Me In' have by the chart of 7 Aug 2026?
Four singles have reached fifteen weeks at No 1 and exactly half saw a sixteenth. One was deleted by the band itself.
18 or moreResolved 07 Aug 2026
Finance07 Aug
Will July payrolls come in below 100,000?
Most sub-100,000 payroll months proved to be noise from strikes or weather. Two preceded recession within a year.
2 of 5YesResolved 07 Aug 2026
Finance07 Aug
What will the July unemployment rate be?
Most sub-100,000 payroll months proved to be noise from strikes or weather. Two preceded recession within a year.
4.1% or lowerResolved 07 Aug 2026
Tech07 Aug
Does Google face a new EU or UK damages claim citing Android by 7 Aug 2026?
Most landmark EU penalties reaching final judgment survived; two were wiped out entirely.
NoResolved 07 Aug 2026
Politics07 Aug
What checks the LFR expansion first, by 7 August?
Every facial recognition expansion went ahead despite challenge. One court defeat forced a pause and a rewrite.
Neither — rollout proceedsResolved 07 Aug 2026
Politics07 Aug
Will Congress pass a binding limit on Iran operations before August recess?
No modern war-powers resolution has halted a US military operation. Vetoes held and the fighting carried on.
0 of 4NoResolved 07 Aug 2026
Politics07 Aug
Is Abelardo de la Espriella sworn in as president on 7 August?
Every razor-thin runoff since 1994 put the declared winner in office on the constitutional date.
4 of 4YesResolved 07 Aug 2026
Politics07 Aug
Does Gustavo Petro attend the inauguration on 7 August?
Every razor-thin runoff since 1994 put the declared winner in office on the constitutional date.
NoResolved 07 Aug 2026
Politics07 Aug
Does Kosovo have an Assembly-confirmed government by 7 August 2026?
In two of Kosovo's last five elections a government won a confidence vote within two months; the worst took 199 days.
NoResolved 07 Aug 2026
Politics07 Aug
Will the RMT announce new Tube strike dates before 7 August 2026?
Most recent Tube disputes came back with further strike dates, though two settled without another walkout.
3 of 5NoResolved 07 Aug 2026
Culture07 Aug
Will A24 officially confirm a Backrooms sequel before 7 Aug 2026?
Of the comparable low-budget horror breakouts, only It cleared $400m. Backrooms sits at $350m with the decay ahead.
NoResolved 07 Aug 2026
Tech07 Aug
Does the High Court rule in Meta's favour against Ofcom's Online Safety Act fee rules by 7 Aug 2026?
The company won outright once in four recent fights with UK regulators. Judicial review tests process, not policy.
1 of 4NoResolved 07 Aug 2026
Finance07 Aug
Will the 30-year gilt yield close below 5.40% before 7 Aug 2026?
Each of the 3 long-gilt spikes before May retraced within about two months, but each peak stood higher than the one before.
3 of 3NoResolved 07 Aug 2026
Tech07 Aug
Which lab is named in AISI's next partnership or evaluation agreement?
Most announced government-lab access agreements produced no public output. The joint UK-US evaluations did.
No new agreement by 7 AugResolved 07 Aug 2026
Tech07 Aug
Will Revolut confirm a UK consumer lending product is live by 7 Aug 2026?
Most UK app-based banks took six years or more from licence to first annual profit. Zopa managed it in three.
NoResolved 07 Aug 2026
Politics05 Aug
Will Han Kuang Exercise No. 42 begin on 5 August 2026 as scheduled?
Named PLA exercises follow Taipei's political moments, not its training calendar. No Han Kuang cycle drew one.
YesResolved 05 Aug 2026
Culture04 Aug
Will Spotify report 300m or more Premium subscribers in Q2 2026 results?
Two of the last four streaming price rises were followed by subscriber growth in the next quarter. Both were Spotify's own; the two video cases went the other way.
YesResolved 04 Aug 2026
Politics03 Aug
Where does the AfD stand against CDU/CSU in the last INSA poll by 2 Aug?
Most headline German reform packages since 2003 became law. The one that failed took the government down with it.
AfD leads by 3+ pointsResolved 03 Aug 2026
Finance03 Aug
Will the S&P 500 set a new record close (above 7,599.96) by 7 August?
All but one record-heavy first half finished the year higher still. The exception, 1987, ended in a crash.
4 of 5YesResolved 03 Aug 2026
Finance03 Aug
Will Nationwide report annual house price growth of 2.5% or more for July?
June momentum carried into December twice in the last four years and broke twice. Mortgage rates decided it each time.
2 of 4NoResolved 03 Aug 2026
Culture03 Aug
Will Rodrigo's album be No 1 on the Billboard 200 chart of 8 Aug 2026?
Mega-debuts since 2021 split by streaming depth: deep ones held No 1 for five weeks or more, sales-led ones for two.
2 of 4NoResolved 03 Aug 2026
Culture03 Aug
How many weeks at No 1 will Rodrigo's album have by the 8 August chart?
Mega-debuts since 2021 split by streaming depth: deep ones held No 1 for five weeks or more, sales-led ones for two.
2 weeks (never returns)Resolved 03 Aug 2026
Sports02 Aug
Will Julián Álvarez be announced as a Barcelona player by 2 Aug 2026?
No club that declared a star not for sale was negotiated down that window. The two who left had the clause paid.
33%NoResolved 02 Aug 2026
Sports02 Aug
Whose player will Álvarez be on 2 Aug 2026?
No club that declared a star not for sale was negotiated down that window. The two who left had the clause paid.
Atlético MadridResolved 02 Aug 2026
Finance02 Aug
Do the seven OPEC+ countries announce a further monthly output increase for September at their August meeting?
In two of four Gulf supply shocks since 1991 the premium was gone within weeks; in the other two it lingered nine months or more.
YesResolved 02 Aug 2026
Tech02 Aug
Do the AI Act's Article 50 transparency rules take effect on 2 Aug 2026?
EU deadlines already in force held; the ones ahead of industry readiness slipped or died. Article 50 is the next test.
3 of 5YesResolved 02 Aug 2026
Sports01 Aug
Will Barcelona lodge a bid of €130m or more for Julián Álvarez by 1 Aug 2026?
No club that declared a star not for sale was negotiated down that window. The two who left had the clause paid.
NoResolved 01 Aug 2026
Politics01 Aug
London's highest temperature in July 2026?
Most London summers never touch 35C, and the record spikes have landed in late July or August, not in June.
33–35.9CResolved 01 Aug 2026
Politics01 Aug
Who is Labour leader on 1 August 2026?
Most mid-term handovers ended in coronation. A ballot came only where a rival cleared the nomination threshold.
Andy BurnhamResolved 01 Aug 2026
Politics01 Aug
How many PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ in July 2026?
Named PLA exercises follow Taipei's political moments, not its training calendar. No Han Kuang cycle drew one.
120–200Resolved 01 Aug 2026
July 2026110 resolved
Tech31 Jul
Does Gemini 3.5 Pro reach general availability by 31 July 2026?
Three of the four Google episodes here ended with the product shipped or restored inside a quarter.
3 of 4NoResolved 31 Jul 2026
Finance31 Jul
Does Brent crude settle below $70 on any day before 31 Jul 2026?
In two of four Gulf supply shocks since 1991 the premium was gone within weeks; in the other two it lingered nine months or more.
2 of 4NoResolved 31 Jul 2026
Politics31 Jul
Will Ukraine confirm withdrawal from Kostyantynivka by 31 July 2026?
Every stronghold Russia claimed did eventually fall, but the first claim ran days or weeks ahead of the fact.
0 of 4NoResolved 31 Jul 2026
Finance31 Jul
Will the dollar index close above 100 on 31 July?
Most big down-years since 1985 extended into a second year of decline; two of them snapped back instead.
3 of 5NoResolved 31 Jul 2026
Politics31 Jul
Will Reform UK lead the next Ipsos Westminster voting-intention poll?
Nearly every recent standards case ended with the MP out of the Commons within a year. Reaching a verdict took months.
NoResolved 31 Jul 2026
Finance31 Jul
Where does the Dow close on 31 July?
All but one record-heavy first half finished the year higher still. The exception, 1987, ended in a crash.
52,000–53,500Resolved 31 Jul 2026
Finance31 Jul
Where does Bitcoin close on 31 July?
Half the previous 50% drawdowns bottomed near the halfway mark; the others ran on to 77-84% from the peak.
$55,000 to $65,000Resolved 31 Jul 2026
Culture31 Jul
Will the British Museum report over £5m in Bayeux tickets by 31 Jul 2026?
Every modern blockbuster sellout ended with the institution adding capacity within the run. The mechanism differed.
NoResolved 31 Jul 2026
Finance31 Jul
Does gold close above $4,200 before 31 July?
Half the 20% falls from a gold record were reclaimed within two years. The rest opened bear markets lasting decades.
2 of 4NoResolved 31 Jul 2026
Finance31 Jul
Where does gold finish on 31 July?
Half the 20% falls from a gold record were reclaimed within two years. The rest opened bear markets lasting decades.
$4,000 to $4,200Resolved 31 Jul 2026
Finance31 Jul
Where does GBP/USD close on 31 July 2026?
Sterling was higher three months on in two of the last five prime-ministerial resignations.
$1.34 or aboveResolved 31 Jul 2026
Politics31 Jul
Will HM Treasury announce the date of the autumn 2026 Budget by 10 August 2026?
All four early-year borrowing overshoots since 2012 were still there a month later. Three of the four ended in autumn tax rises.
YesResolved 31 Jul 2026
Politics31 Jul
Does the new Assembly elect a speaker by 31 July?
In two of Kosovo's last five elections a government won a confidence vote within two months; the worst took 199 days.
NoResolved 31 Jul 2026
Politics31 Jul
Does a new Romanian government win a confidence vote by 31 July?
Half the censure collapses since 1989 were replaced within four weeks. Both long vacuums saw nominations fail.
2 of 4NoResolved 31 Jul 2026
Tech31 Jul
Where does SpaceX close on 31 Jul 2026 against its $135 listing price?
All but one of the biggest IPOs traded above their listing price a month later. Facebook was the exception.
Below $135Resolved 31 Jul 2026
Politics31 Jul
Where does the Cairo track stand on 31 July 2026?
No multi-stage Israel-Hamas arrangement since 2012 reached its second phase. Each first phase partly delivered.
Phase-two agreement announcedResolved 31 Jul 2026
Tech31 Jul
Which operator carries the first driverless public passenger in London?
Most announced robotaxi launch windows slipped, and the two that opened on time were narrower than promised.
No public rides by 31 JulResolved 31 Jul 2026
Politics31 Jul
Where does the four-day week dispute stand on 31 July?
Most recent Tube disputes came back with further strike dates, though two settled without another walkout.
No deal, no new datesResolved 31 Jul 2026
Politics31 Jul
What replaces the Section 122 tariffs when they lapse on 24 July?
Every Section 301 proposal since 2018 became a final action. Three of the four were softened or delayed on the way.
New Section 301 action in forceResolved 31 Jul 2026
Tech31 Jul
How many of ten cleared Chinese firms confirm H200 orders by 31 Jul 2026?
Only one round of China-compliant Nvidia chips lasted more than a year. One government or the other closed the window.
NoneResolved 31 Jul 2026
Finance31 Jul
Where does the 30-year gilt yield close on 31 July 2026?
Each of the 3 long-gilt spikes before May retraced within about two months, but each peak stood higher than the one before.
5.75% or aboveResolved 31 Jul 2026
Politics31 Jul
How many people will the Apr–Jun CHAIN count record?
Only one rough sleeping pledge since 1998 hit its target. Both counts reported in 2026 have shown falls.
3,600–4,300Resolved 31 Jul 2026
Tech31 Jul
What will DHSC announce for the NHS App by 31 Jul 2026?
Incremental NHS App features delivered at national scale; the centrally procured mega-programme left a £12.7bn scar.
Nothing substantiveResolved 31 Jul 2026
Finance30 Jul
What does the Bank of England do to Bank Rate on 30 July?
June momentum carried into December twice in the last four years and broke twice. Mortgage rates decided it each time.
Hold at 3.75%Resolved 30 Jul 2026
Politics30 Jul
Who will win the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election?
Labour has won every Greater Manchester mayoral contest, never below 63%. Every one of those wins was Burnham's.
Bev Craig (Lab)Resolved 30 Jul 2026
Finance30 Jul
What does the MPC do to Bank Rate on 30 July 2026?
In two of the last four episodes of hawkish MPC dissent the committee hiked within two meetings. In the other two it cut instead.
Hold at 3.75%Resolved 30 Jul 2026
Finance30 Jul
Will at least two MPC members vote for a hike at the 30 July meeting?
In two of the last four episodes of hawkish MPC dissent the committee hiked within two meetings. In the other two it cut instead.
YesResolved 30 Jul 2026
Politics30 Jul
Will Israel and Hamas agree phase two of the Gaza plan by 7 Aug 2026?
No multi-stage Israel-Hamas arrangement since 2012 reached its second phase. Each first phase partly delivered.
0 of 4YesResolved 30 Jul 2026
Finance29 Jul
What does the Fed do at its July meeting?
All but one incoming chair facing price pressure tightened within two meetings. Warsh spent his first on a hold.
HoldResolved 29 Jul 2026
Tech29 Jul
Will Arm report Q1 FY2027 revenue above $1.18bn by 6 Aug 2026?
Only one chip antitrust action since 2009 produced a lasting regulator win, and none reached a complaint in a year.
YesResolved 29 Jul 2026
Culture28 Jul
Will the Booker Prize 2026 longlist include any previous Booker winner?
Fewer than half the longlists since 2019 carried a former winner, and the misses came in a consecutive block.
43%YesResolved 28 Jul 2026
Culture28 Jul
How many debut novels will make the Booker 2026 longlist?
Fewer than half the longlists since 2019 carried a former winner, and the misses came in a consecutive block.
2–3Resolved 28 Jul 2026
Sports27 Jul
Does Linda Noskova win her opening match at the DC Open in Washington?
Three of the last six first-time women's major champions won their opening match at their next event; three did not.
50%NoResolved 27 Jul 2026
Sports27 Jul
Does Noskova reach the semi-finals in Washington?
Three of the last six first-time women's major champions won their opening match at their next event; three did not.
NoResolved 27 Jul 2026
Sports27 Jul
How does the Wimbledon champion's Washington week end?
Three of the last six first-time women's major champions won their opening match at their next event; three did not.
Withdraws before playingResolved 27 Jul 2026
Tech27 Jul
Is the AI Act omnibus published in the EU Official Journal by 1 Aug 2026?
EU deadlines already in force held; the ones ahead of industry readiness slipped or died. Article 50 is the next test.
3 of 5YesResolved 27 Jul 2026
Tech27 Jul
Will Openreach announce stop-sell Tranche 25 by 10 Aug 2026?
Area-by-area switch-offs have landed on schedule. The single national deadline, for the PSTN, moved by thirteen months.
2 of 4YesResolved 27 Jul 2026
Sports26 Jul
Does Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France?
Yellow at the first rest day has been a coin flip over ten Tours. Among genuine GC favourites it won five of seven.
50%YesResolved 26 Jul 2026
Sports26 Jul
Is Pogacar's winning margin over second place in Paris more than five minutes?
Yellow at the first rest day has been a coin flip over ten Tours. Among genuine GC favourites it won five of seven.
YesResolved 26 Jul 2026
Sports26 Jul
Does Kimi Antonelli lead the drivers' championship at the summer break?
In all four modern regulation resets the team that mastered the new rules took the title, even as the lead shrank.
4 of 4YesResolved 26 Jul 2026
Sports26 Jul
Who wins the 2026 Tour de France?
Pogacar leads their five Tour duels three to two, and every one was decided in the third week by whoever led into it.
Tadej PogacarResolved 26 Jul 2026
Sports26 Jul
Does Jonas Vingegaard finish the 2026 Tour de France in Paris?
Pogacar leads their five Tour duels three to two, and every one was decided in the third week by whoever led into it.
NoResolved 26 Jul 2026
Sports25 Jul
Does Pogacar win at least one of the two Alpe d'Huez stages (24-25 Jul)?
Yellow at the first rest day has been a coin flip over ten Tours. Among genuine GC favourites it won five of seven.
YesResolved 25 Jul 2026
Sports24 Jul
Will the DFB confirm Jürgen Klopp as Germany head coach by 7 Aug 2026?
The DFB has named a successor within six weeks whenever the exit was a crisis. Only the planned handover took longer.
3 of 4YesResolved 24 Jul 2026
Sports24 Jul
Will Hull City complete the signing of Grêmio's Gabriel Mec by 24 Jul 2026?
Two of the last five Championship play-off winners survived their first Premier League season, by opposite methods.
NoResolved 24 Jul 2026
Tech23 Jul
Do Tesla shares close lower on the first full trading day after the Q2 2026 earnings report than on the session before?
A delivery record moves the question from demand to margin. In three of the last four the shares fell within a month.
3 of 4YesResolved 23 Jul 2026
Tech23 Jul
How do Tesla shares close on the first full trading day after Q2 earnings?
A delivery record moves the question from demand to margin. In three of the last four the shares fell within a month.
Down 5% or moreResolved 23 Jul 2026
Politics23 Jul
Will Washington announce a new tariff measure on EU goods by 10 Aug?
Almost every Trump tariff deadline ended in deferral or a deal. The 2018 steel tariffs landed on schedule.
4 of 5YesResolved 23 Jul 2026
Sports23 Jul
Will Manchester City's confirmed summer spending pass £100m by 31 Jul 2026?
Only one successor to a nine-year reign lasted beyond two full seasons, and he was promoted from inside the club.
YesResolved 23 Jul 2026
Politics23 Jul
Where does the 21st package stand on 10 August?
Every package has been adopted in the end. Four of the last five were held by one capital for five to ten weeks.
Adopted with carve-outsResolved 23 Jul 2026
Finance23 Jul
Does the ECB raise rates at its 23 July meeting?
Only 2022's energy-shock cycle delivered a second hike at the next meeting. The others paused for at least two meetings.
1 of 4NoResolved 23 Jul 2026
Finance23 Jul
Where is the ECB deposit rate after the 23 July decision?
Only 2022's energy-shock cycle delivered a second hike at the next meeting. The others paused for at least two meetings.
Held at 2.25%Resolved 23 Jul 2026
Tech23 Jul
Do BT's Q1 results show Openreach full-fibre above 22m premises?
Area-by-area switch-offs have landed on schedule. The single national deadline, for the PSTN, moved by thirteen months.
YesResolved 23 Jul 2026
Sports22 Jul
Will Arsenal announce Morgan Rogers as an Arsenal player by 2 Aug 2026?
Few of these £100m sagas closed before August. Three ran into August or later, and one collapsed outright.
33%NoResolved 22 Jul 2026
Sports22 Jul
Will Arsenal make a formal bid of £100m or more for Rogers by 27 Jul 2026?
Few of these £100m sagas closed before August. Three ran into August or later, and one collapsed outright.
NoResolved 22 Jul 2026
Sports22 Jul
Where will Rogers stand on 2 Aug 2026?
Few of these £100m sagas closed before August. Three ran into August or later, and one collapsed outright.
Deal collapsed / joins another clubResolved 22 Jul 2026
Tech22 Jul
Will Tesla's Q2 2026 update show automotive gross margin above Q1's level?
A delivery record moves the question from demand to margin. In three of the last four the shares fell within a month.
NoResolved 22 Jul 2026
Finance22 Jul
What does June 2026 CPI print at on 22 July?
In most modern energy-shock episodes the first retreat held. The exception, 1975, ran to a second wave peaking near 27%.
2.7% or belowResolved 22 Jul 2026
Finance22 Jul
Will transport inflation stay above 6% in the June 2026 data?
In most modern energy-shock episodes the first retreat held. The exception, 1975, ran to a second wave peaking near 27%.
NoResolved 22 Jul 2026
Finance21 Jul
Is UK public sector net borrowing for June 2026 above £20bn in the ONS first estimate?
Four of the last five autumn fiscal events that followed a summer warning raised taxes, from 2021 to 2025.
NoResolved 21 Jul 2026
Politics21 Jul
Will the ONS release on 21 July 2026 show cumulative April to June 2026 borrowing above the OBR's March 2026 forecast?
All four early-year borrowing overshoots since 2012 were still there a month later. Three of the four ended in autumn tax rises.
4 of 4YesResolved 21 Jul 2026
Politics21 Jul
Will June 2026 borrowing exceed £20bn in the ONS release on 21 July?
All four early-year borrowing overshoots since 2012 were still there a month later. Three of the four ended in autumn tax rises.
NoResolved 21 Jul 2026
Sports21 Jul
Will Chelsea announce a permanent signing of £50m or more by 7 Aug 2026?
None of Chelsea's last seven permanent head coaches began a third season. Four won a trophy and it made no difference.
YesResolved 21 Jul 2026
Culture20 Jul
Will Fjord be in a Venice, TIFF or NYFF lineup announcement by 10 Aug 2026?
Two-time winners are rare across 79 editions, but three of the ten doubles have been minted in the last fifteen years.
YesResolved 20 Jul 2026
Sports19 Jul
Who wins the 2026 Golden Boot?
Most recent Golden Boot winners never scored in a final, and three added nothing after the quarter-finals.
Kylian MbappéResolved 19 Jul 2026
Sports19 Jul
Will the Golden Boot be decided by the assists tiebreaker?
Most recent Golden Boot winners never scored in a final, and three added nothing after the quarter-finals.
NoResolved 19 Jul 2026
Sports19 Jul
Who wins the 2026 World Cup?
Only two reigning European champions went on to win the World Cup. Four more reached the final; most exited earlier.
SpainResolved 19 Jul 2026
Sports19 Jul
Do Spain keep a clean sheet in the World Cup final on 19 July 2026?
Only two reigning European champions went on to win the World Cup. Four more reached the final; most exited earlier.
YesResolved 19 Jul 2026
Sports19 Jul
Does a British player win the 154th Open at Royal Birkdale on 19 July 2026?
No British player has won an Open at Royal Birkdale. A home player finished in the top five at each of the last three.
NoResolved 19 Jul 2026
Sports19 Jul
Who wins the 154th Open at Royal Birkdale?
No British player has won an Open at Royal Birkdale. A home player finished in the top five at each of the last three.
Another playerResolved 19 Jul 2026
Sports19 Jul
Does a British player finish in the top five at Birkdale?
No British player has won an Open at Royal Birkdale. A home player finished in the top five at each of the last three.
YesResolved 19 Jul 2026
Sports19 Jul
Who wins the Belgian Grand Prix on 19 July?
In all four modern regulation resets the team that mastered the new rules took the title, even as the lead shrank.
Kimi AntonelliResolved 19 Jul 2026
Sports19 Jul
Will England win the men's ODI series against India, finishing at Lord's on 19 July?
India have won every multi-match T20I series played in England. England's wins have come only in one-off games.
YesResolved 19 Jul 2026
Sports19 Jul
Who wins the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot?
Maiden quarter-finals this century have almost always ended there. Morocco in 2022 reached the semi-finals.
Kylian MbappéResolved 19 Jul 2026
Sports19 Jul
Will an English player finish in the top five at Royal Birkdale?
None of the sixteen Open editions from 2009 through 2025, excluding 2020, had a repeat winner. This is an edition-level record, not sixteen participating defending champions.
YesResolved 19 Jul 2026
Sports18 Jul
How many of their remaining two July Tests do England win?
England have lost once in nine meetings with Fiji. That defeat came in the last home fixture, at Twickenham in 2023.
Both (Fiji and Argentina)Resolved 18 Jul 2026
Sports18 Jul
Will Kerr break the mile world record (sub-3:43.13) in London on 18 July?
The mile record has stood for 27 years and no announced attempt has succeeded. The closest missed by 0.60s.
0 of 2YesResolved 18 Jul 2026
Sports18 Jul
Will Kerr win the mile at the London Athletics Meet?
The mile record has stood for 27 years and no announced attempt has succeeded. The closest missed by 0.60s.
YesResolved 18 Jul 2026
Culture17 Jul
Will 'Rein Me In' take a 16th week at No 1 on the chart of 17 Jul 2026?
Four singles have reached fifteen weeks at No 1 and exactly half saw a sixteenth. One was deleted by the band itself.
2 of 4YesResolved 17 Jul 2026
Politics16 Jul
Will a second name make Labour's leadership ballot at nominations close?
Most mid-term handovers ended in coronation. A ballot came only where a rival cleared the nomination threshold.
2 of 5NoResolved 16 Jul 2026
Sports15 Jul
Will England beat Argentina to reach the World Cup final?
England have won most of their World Cup meetings with Argentina, but only one of the three knockout ties.
NoResolved 15 Jul 2026
Sports15 Jul
Will Lionel Messi score in the England v Argentina semi-final on 15 July 2026?
England have won most of their World Cup meetings with Argentina, but only one of the three knockout ties.
NoResolved 15 Jul 2026
Sports15 Jul
Will the semi-final go to extra time?
England have won most of their World Cup meetings with Argentina, but only one of the three knockout ties.
NoResolved 15 Jul 2026
Sports15 Jul
Will Harry Kane score in the England v Argentina semi-final on 15 July 2026?
Most recent Golden Boot winners never scored in a final, and three added nothing after the quarter-finals.
NoResolved 15 Jul 2026
Sports15 Jul
Will England reach the 2026 World Cup final?
The quarter-final is where England's tournaments usually end, though they have climbed it twice since 1990.
NoResolved 15 Jul 2026
Culture15 Jul
How will Christie's report H1 2026 global sales against H1 2025's $2.1bn?
Trophy estates beat their low estimates in nearly every recent season, yet season-wide totals still fell twice.
Up more than 10%Resolved 15 Jul 2026
Culture14 Jul
Will Prince Harry and the King meet in person during Harry's July UK visit?
The King met Harry twice in six visits, both after an extraordinary trigger. Four routine charity trips produced none.
33%YesResolved 14 Jul 2026
Culture14 Jul
Which senior royal will Harry meet in person during the visit?
The King met Harry twice in six visits, both after an extraordinary trigger. Four routine charity trips produced none.
King Charles onlyResolved 14 Jul 2026
Culture14 Jul
Does Meghan travel to the UK with Harry during the July visit?
The King met Harry twice in six visits, both after an extraordinary trigger. Four routine charity trips produced none.
YesResolved 14 Jul 2026
Culture14 Jul
Will the BBC publish its 2025-26 Annual Report on or before 31 July 2026?
Half the director-generals since 1987 left in crisis, half on their own terms.
YesResolved 14 Jul 2026
Tech14 Jul
Do Nvidia or the US confirm H200 delivery to mainland China by 7 Aug 2026?
Only one round of China-compliant Nvidia chips lasted more than a year. One government or the other closed the window.
2 of 3YesResolved 14 Jul 2026
Sports13 Jul
Does Vingegaard lead the general classification at the rest day on 13 Jul?
Pogacar leads their five Tour duels three to two, and every one was decided in the third week by whoever led into it.
NoResolved 13 Jul 2026
Politics13 Jul
Will the Immigration and Asylum Bill pass Second Reading on 13 July?
Every major immigration bill since 1999 cleared Second Reading. Rebellion size is the real variable.
100%YesResolved 13 Jul 2026
Politics13 Jul
How many Labour MPs will vote against the Bill at Second Reading?
Every major immigration bill since 1999 cleared Second Reading. Rebellion size is the real variable.
10 to 29Resolved 13 Jul 2026
Culture12 Jul
Will Michael cross $1bn worldwide by 7 Aug 2026?
Most leg-driven runs stalled within $90m of the line. Michael needs $23m with international play still booked.
2 of 5YesResolved 12 Jul 2026
Sports11 Jul
Do England beat Norway inside ninety minutes in the World Cup quarter-final on 11 July?
The quarter-final is where England's tournaments usually end, though they have climbed it twice since 1990.
1 of 5NoResolved 11 Jul 2026
Sports11 Jul
Will England beat Fiji in Liverpool on 11 July?
England have lost once in nine meetings with Fiji. That defeat came in the last home fixture, at Twickenham in 2023.
4 of 5YesResolved 11 Jul 2026
Sports11 Jul
Will England win the men's T20I series against India?
India have won every multi-match T20I series played in England. England's wins have come only in one-off games.
2 of 4YesResolved 11 Jul 2026
Sports11 Jul
Will Norway beat England to reach a first World Cup semi-final?
Maiden quarter-finals this century have almost always ended there. Morocco in 2022 reached the semi-finals.
1 of 5NoResolved 11 Jul 2026
Sports11 Jul
Is the 2026 Wimbledon women's singles champion seeded outside the top ten?
Every Wimbledon women's champion since 2017 won the title for the first time. No former champion is in the draw.
3 of 4NoResolved 11 Jul 2026
Sports11 Jul
Who wins the 2026 Wimbledon women's singles title?
Every Wimbledon women's champion since 2017 won the title for the first time. No former champion is in the draw.
Another seeded playerResolved 11 Jul 2026
Sports09 Jul
Will Morocco beat France in the quarter-final on 9 July?
In every recent World Cup knockout rematch the winner of the first meeting won again. France beat Morocco in 2022.
0 of 4NoResolved 09 Jul 2026
Sports09 Jul
Will an African side reach the 2026 World Cup final?
In every recent World Cup knockout rematch the winner of the first meeting won again. France beat Morocco in 2022.
0 of 4NoResolved 09 Jul 2026
Politics09 Jul
Does the Timms Review's interim report, published by 31 Jul 2026, propose any cut to PIP eligibility or cost?
Only one welfare-savings package since 1997 delivered as announced. The rest were reversed, diluted or outgrown.
1 of 5NoResolved 09 Jul 2026
Tech09 Jul
Will Ofcom issue an Online Safety Act fine above £500,000 by 10 Aug 2026?
The company won outright once in four recent fights with UK regulators. Judicial review tests process, not policy.
YesResolved 09 Jul 2026
Politics08 Jul
Do NATO leaders back the Ankara declaration with the €70bn pledge by 8 Jul?
Every pre-agreed NATO declaration since 2016 has been endorsed, through Trump's first term and Vilnius.
100%YesResolved 08 Jul 2026
Sports07 Jul
Does Naomi Osaka reach the 2026 Wimbledon women's final?
Every Wimbledon women's champion since 2017 won the title for the first time. No former champion is in the draw.
NoResolved 07 Jul 2026
Politics02 Jul
Will the EU implement the trade deal before Trump's 4 July deadline?
Almost every Trump tariff deadline ended in deferral or a deal. The 2018 steel tariffs landed on schedule.
4 of 5YesResolved 02 Jul 2026
Tech02 Jul
How did the EU's top court rule on Google's €4.1bn Android fine?
Most landmark EU penalties reaching final judgment survived; two were wiped out entirely.
Upheld in fullResolved 02 Jul 2026
Sports01 Jul
Will Liverpool complete a permanent signing of £40m or more by 5 Aug 2026?
Sacking a title-winning manager won the league back inside two seasons twice, and buried Leicester.
YesResolved 01 Jul 2026
June 202615 resolved
Finance30 Jun
Does Bitcoin trade below $60,000 in June?
Half the previous 50% drawdowns bottomed near the halfway mark; the others ran on to 77-84% from the peak.
2 of 4YesResolved 30 Jun 2026
Politics30 Jun
Will the Immigration and Asylum Bill receive its First Reading by 30 June 2026?
Every major immigration bill since 1999 cleared Second Reading. Rebellion size is the real variable.
YesResolved 30 Jun 2026
Sports29 Jun
Will Germany reach the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals?
The DFB has named a successor within six weeks whenever the exit was a crisis. Only the planned handover took longer.
NoResolved 29 Jun 2026
Politics29 Jun
Will resident doctors vote to accept the government's June offer?
NHS pay deals always ended the immediate strikes. Only the most recent settlement saw strike dates return inside a year.
YesResolved 29 Jun 2026
Tech29 Jun
Does the Council of the EU give final approval to the Digital Omnibus on AI by 30 June 2026?
EU deadlines already in force held; the ones ahead of industry readiness slipped or died. Article 50 is the next test.
YesResolved 29 Jun 2026
Culture27 Jun
Will BIGBANG add dates or cities to the 20/26 World Tour before 7 Aug 2026?
All but one comparable legacy-act stadium run since 2016 sold out and added dates. The exception was cancelled.
4 of 5YesResolved 27 Jun 2026
Culture27 Jun
Which region gets additional 20/26 dates first?
All but one comparable legacy-act stadium run since 2016 sold out and added dates. The exception was cancelled.
North AmericaResolved 27 Jun 2026
Politics26 Jun
Will London record 35C or higher before 10 August 2026?
Most London summers never touch 35C, and the record spikes have landed in late July or August, not in June.
30%YesResolved 26 Jun 2026
Culture25 Jun
Will Bond 26 auditions begin before 1 July 2026?
Previous handovers were settled between two and twenty months. This vacancy has now run for fifty-seven.
YesResolved 25 Jun 2026
Culture24 Jun
Did Sinatra The Musical hold its official opening night at the Aldwych by 30 June 2026?
Landmark jukebox musicals either run for seven years or more or close within one. The middle barely exists.
YesResolved 24 Jun 2026
Politics24 Jun
Will the electoral council's official declaration put de la Espriella's winning margin below one percentage point?
Every razor-thin runoff since 1994 put the declared winner in office on the constitutional date.
YesResolved 24 Jun 2026
Politics17 Jun
Will the Évian summit set a numeric target to cut rare-earth dependence?
G7 pledges with a named mechanism and a hard number delivered. The umbrella initiatives did not. Évian is non-binding.
YesResolved 17 Jun 2026
Finance17 Jun
Will the Fed hold rates at Warsh's first meeting in June?
All but one incoming chair facing price pressure tightened within two meetings. Warsh spent his first on a hold.
4 of 5YesResolved 17 Jun 2026
Sports13 Jun
Do the Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
The NBA has crowned a different champion in each of the last eight seasons. None has repeated since 2018.
YesResolved 13 Jun 2026
Sports13 Jun
Is Jalen Brunson named 2026 NBA Finals MVP?
The NBA has crowned a different champion in each of the last eight seasons. None has repeated since 2018.
YesResolved 13 Jun 2026
May 20263 resolved
Culture19 May
Will Taiwan Travelogue win the International Booker Prize 2026?
Fewer than half the longlists since 2019 carried a former winner, and the misses came in a consecutive block.
YesResolved 19 May 2026
Politics15 May
Will the Devolution Act hand TfL e-bike licensing powers before June?
No London micromobility scheme has moved from legal power to published rules in under eleven months.
YesResolved 15 May 2026
Culture14 May
Will the Mnuchin Rothko beat its $70m low estimate?
Trophy estates beat their low estimates in nearly every recent season, yet season-wide totals still fell twice.
3 of 5YesResolved 14 May 2026