Golf's Open returns to Birkdale on 16 July. No British player has ever won there.
Golf's 154th Open begins at Royal Birkdale on 16 July. Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion and Rory McIlroy his main challenger.
What happened
The PGA Tour’s power rankings for the 154th Open put Scottie Scheffler at the head of the field at Royal Birkdale, with Rory McIlroy his closest challenger and Southport local Tommy Fleetwood leading the home contingent.
The 154th Open runs from 16 to at Royal Birkdale. It is the course’s first Open since Jordan Spieth won there in 2017. Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion after winning by four strokes at Royal Portrush last summer.
Players say the course has never been this hard and fast. Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are first and second in the forecasts before the event, with Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick and Jon Rahm next. Both leaders warned in practice week that a sun-baked Birkdale, where the ball runs far, will produce “weird stuff”. Players described the firm conditions as unprecedented for the course.
Sources: PGA Tour, The Open, ESPN (2)
The Pattern
All ten Opens at Birkdale went to players from abroad. Royal Birkdale has hosted the Open ten times since 1954. Even so, each of the last three put a British player in the top five. The newest come first. The 2025 Open at Portrush is shown as the most recent Open, and it is not one of the ten at Birkdale.
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The Read
The favourites have a strong case. Scheffler is the defending champion with the most complete game in the field. Last year at Portrush he showed that the favourite can win an Open, winning by four as world number one. McIlroy finished fourth here in 2017 and has already won a major this season. On a firm, fast Birkdale that punishes mistakes, the best players tend to pull away.
The course’s history works against British hopes. Ten Opens at Birkdale have produced ten champions from abroad and a run of British near-misses: Rose tied fourth as an amateur, Poulter second, McIlroy fourth. That record argues against backing a home winner. But each of the last three Birkdale Opens had a British player in the top five, so our 58 per cent on a top-five finish rests on history too.
Our markets expect the run without a British winner to go on at the very top and to end just below it. The final round on settles both.
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