Russia says it took Kostyantynivka. Past claims came true, some weeks late.
Moscow says it has taken Kostyantynivka, a Ukrainian stronghold in the Donetsk region. Kyiv says the fighting there goes on.
What happened
Russia claimed the seizure of Kostyantynivka as Ukraine’s military estimated 39,490 Russian casualties in June and a net first-half territorial gain of just 97 sq km.
Russia said on that its forces had taken Kostyantynivka. The town is a stronghold in the eastern Donetsk region and holds together what is left of Ukraine’s defences there. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said fighting was still going on inside the town, and Ukrainian units said they pushed back attacks nearby the same day.
The claim came as Russia’s advance was at its slowest in the war. Russian forces took 622 sq km in the first half of 2026, against 2,190 sq km in the same months of 2025. In June they took just 1.03 sq km a day.
The Institute for the Study of War put the cost at 1,298 Russian casualties, killed or wounded, for each square kilometre taken in , against 68 a year earlier. Ukraine estimates 39,490 Russian casualties in June. That is more than the 24,000 to 30,000 soldiers Russia is thought to recruit each month.
On the night of Russia carried out one of the heaviest strikes of the war on Kyiv, killing at least 22 people.
Peace talks have not kept up with the fighting. Talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US in Abu Dhabi in January and February, and in Geneva on 17 and , led to a prisoner exchange but no deal.
Washington’s goal of ending the war by June was missed. Since then the Kremlin has rejected two Ukrainian ceasefire proposals, and it has signalled that it prefers to negotiate through Washington rather than with Kyiv.
Sources: Al Jazeera (2, 3, 4)
The Pattern
Russia has claimed a major Ukrainian stronghold four times in this war. Each of those cities did fall in the end, but Russia has more than once announced the capture before it was true. Each capture cost months of fighting and tens of thousands of casualties.
Show the other 2 cases
The Read
History says the town falls, even if the announcement came early. Each time Moscow formally claimed a city this important, Ukraine later lost it, within days in some cases and within weeks in others. Avdiivka and Bakhmut are the latest examples. Kostyantynivka has been the centre of Russia’s Donetsk campaign for months, which is why the market sits near 58 and not lower.
The doubt is about timing. This claim came as Russia’s advance slowed to its weakest pace of the war. A force that takes 1.03 sq km a day, and loses more men each month than it recruits, can keep fighting inside a town long past any deadline. In Bakhmut, Russia’s early claims came well before the city fell.
If Zelenskyy is still saying in mid-July that the fighting goes on, the date starts to look tight. A NO on timing would still fit with the town falling later.
Disclaimer
Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.
Published by Hunch under the Editorial Code. Complaints and corrections: /contact/.