Tue, 19 May 2026
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World Cup6 Jul 2026

Norway beat Brazil 2-1. Few of the last five first-time quarter-finalists went on.

Erling Haaland scored twice as Norway beat Brazil 2-1 at MetLife Stadium. Norway are in a World Cup quarter-final for the first time in their history.

4 min read

What happened

Haaland scored in the 11th and 90th minutes as Norway beat Brazil 2-1 in the last 16, reaching a first World Cup quarter-final in the nation’s history.

Erling Haaland headed Norway in front in the 11th minute from Andreas Schjelderup’s cross, then scored again in the 90th to put the last-16 game beyond Brazil at MetLife Stadium. Neymar, who came on in the 67th minute, scored a penalty in stoppage time, but it came too late. Norway, at their first World Cup since 1998, are in the quarter-finals for the first time.

The defeat is Brazil’s sixth World Cup exit in a row against a European team. It also ends a campaign built around Carlo Ancelotti’s task of winning a first title in 24 years. Goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland stood out behind a disciplined Norwegian defence that held off long spells of pressure. Neymar said afterwards that his international career is over.

Norway now face England in Miami on . The two teams came through the same qualifying group. In 1998 Norway also beat Brazil 2-1, in a group game in Marseille. Haaland’s two goals took him to seven, level with Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé at the top of the tournament’s scoring charts.

Sources: Al Jazeera, ESPN (2), Sky Sports

The Pattern

Norway are the sixth country this century to reach their first World Cup quarter-final. We looked at whether the five before them won that game and reached the semi-finals. Four went out in the quarter-final, and only Morocco, in 2022, went further.

1 of 5
One of the last five nations to reach a maiden World Cup quarter-final went on to the semi-finals: Morocco in 2022. Costa Rica in 2014 and Ghana in 2010 lost shootouts, Senegal in 2002 fell to a golden goal, and Ukraine in 2006 were beaten by the eventual champions. That is the full record of first-time quarter-finalists this century — the ceiling is real, but Morocco showed it can be broken.
2022 Moroccoheld
Morocco became the first African semi-finalist, beating Portugal 1-0 in their maiden quarter-final before losing 2-0 to France — the only first-timer this century to go further.
2014 Costa Ricanot held
Costa Rica held the Netherlands 0-0 through extra time in their first quarter-final, then lost the shootout 4-3.
Show the other 3 cases
2010 Ghananot held
Ghana drew 1-1 with Uruguay in their first quarter-final, missed a last-minute penalty after Luis Suárez’s handball, and lost the shootout 4-2.
2006 Ukrainenot held
Ukraine, in their first quarter-final at a debut World Cup, were beaten 3-0 by eventual champions Italy.
2002 Senegalnot held
Senegal reached the last eight at their debut tournament and fell to a golden goal, losing 1-0 to Turkey.

The Read

History is against Norway. Four of the last five first-time quarter-finalists went out at that stage, and three of them lost on penalties or to a golden goal, the old rule where the first goal in extra time ended the game. That is how the round tends to end for a team playing it for the first time. England have the deeper squad, a settled team under Thomas Tuchel, and a knockout win at the Azteca that suggests they can handle pressure.

Norway’s case is strong for a first-timer. They have just beaten Brazil, and Haaland is level with Messi and Mbappé on seven goals, while England’s defence is missing the suspended Jarell Quansah. Morocco in 2022 showed that a first-timer can go further with strong defending and a player who wins games. Norway have both, and 38 per cent for Norway is a serious view.

Disclaimer

Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.

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