Cairo talks on Gaza's next phase. No Israel-Hamas deal since 2012 got that far.
Palestinian factions met mediators from Egypt, Qatar and Turkey in Cairo to negotiate the second phase of the Gaza plan, 8 months into the ceasefire.
What happened
Talks on phase two of the Gaza agreement opened in Cairo as Israel pressed deeper into the enclave; disarmament versus withdrawal remains the core standoff.
Palestinian groups arrived in Cairo in the week of to meet mediators from Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. They are working from a plan drawn up by Nikolay Mladenov, the Board of Peace’s high representative for Gaza. Hamas has signalled it would hand the running of Gaza to a committee of experts and keep weapons off Gaza’s streets.
Weapons are the main dispute. Hamas will not give up its arms outright, and links any handover to an Israeli withdrawal. Israel and Mladenov say the next phase depends on Hamas disarming. Hamas and other groups say Israel must first keep its phase-one promises on aid and aid trucks.
The ceasefire exists more on paper than on the ground. Gaza’s health ministry says Israeli operations have killed 1,005 Palestinians since the truce began on . Around two million people live under Hamas rule in roughly 40% of the strip, and the Israeli army controls the rest. Israel has moved the ‘Yellow Line’, marked with cement blocks, towards crowded parts of Gaza City, and more people have had to leave their homes.
Pressure is also growing from outside the talks. A UN inquiry found on that Israel continues to deliberately target and kill Palestinian children, on average one child a day since the ceasefire began. UN aid reports warn that fuel shortages are forcing aid groups to ration life-saving services. The mediators have set no public deadline.
Sources: Al Jazeera (2, 3), UK Home Office
The Pattern
We found four Israel-Hamas deals since 2012 that were built in stages. In each one the first phase partly worked, and the second phase was never reached.
Show the other 2 cases
The Read
History pointed against a deal. No Israel-Hamas deal in stages since 2012 got past its first phase. The two sides had not moved in six months: Israel wanted disarmament first, and Hamas wanted withdrawal first. Each side pointed to the other’s breaches of phase one. The mediators described their work as discussing a plan rather than writing a deal, and no deadline forced a decision before August.
This deal was built differently from the four before it. A standing Board of Peace has an envoy with real powers, and three mediators sit in one room instead of travelling between the sides. Hamas had already given ground on who runs Gaza, which it never did in 2014 or 2025. In this war, deals nobody expected have come twice under strong US pressure, and the agreement was one of them. The record is also small, only four cases. If Washington wanted a phase-two signature before September, the chances could change fast.
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