Trump seeks a fertiliser deal with Belarus. Will it be signed by 23 October?
Donald Trump said on 21 September that the US is working on a "massive" deal to buy potash, a fertiliser, from Belarus.
What happened
Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday : “The United States is working on a massive deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus”, at prices “substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada”.
On Monday Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social, his own social media network, that the US is working on a “massive” deal to buy potash from Belarus. Potash is a salt used to make fertiliser. He said the price would be “substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada” and called it “very good news for our farmers and ranchers”.
In 2024, 79% of US potash imports came from Canada, 11% from Russia and 4% from Belarus, according to the US Geological Survey.
The post follows a year of trades between Washington and Minsk, the capital of Belarus. In the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, freed 123 prisoners after Trump’s envoy John Coale said the US would lift sanctions on Belarusian potash.
On the US Treasury took the potash company Belaruskali off its sanctions list. On it removed two more Belarusian companies as Belarus freed 25 political prisoners.
Neither side has published terms, a buyer or a date for signing. Belarus’s exiled opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, called any deal with Lukashenko “very risky”. She said potash income pays for repression and for Russia’s war. The post came as Trump stepped up his trade war with Canada, the largest US supplier.
Sources: The Guardian (2), US Treasury OFAC (2)
The Pattern
We found eight such deals, and none was signed within a month. We looked for times when Donald Trump announced that a big purchase deal with another government was being prepared, before anything was signed. A deal counts as signed when there is a signed text, a signed memorandum or a presidential order that puts it into effect. Two things are different this time. In all eight cases the other government was buying from the US, and here the US is buying. And one man, Donald Trump, decided on the US side every time. Four of the eight come from the round of tariff deals, with different partners but a shared deadline. The closest cases come first.
Show the other 6 cases
The Read
The record says announced deals are slow to be signed. Of eight purchase deals Donald Trump announced before any text was signed, none was signed inside a month. The two fastest, both with Japan after months of talks, took 43 and 44 days. The rest took from 107 days to more than a year, or were still unsigned in .
This case is different in two ways that point in opposite directions. The US and Belarus have made quick trades over the past year, with prisoners freed in return for fewer sanctions, and Belaruskali is already off the US sanctions list. But no terms, no price and no buyer have been published. And in every past case the other government was buying from the US, while here Belarus would be the seller. That is why our estimate sits below the record.
The estimate would rise if the White House or Minsk names a signing date or a US buyer, or if Belarus frees more prisoners alongside a new US step. It would fall if Trump settles his dispute with Canada, the supplier the deal is meant to replace.
Disclaimer
Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.
Published by Hunch under the Editorial Code. Complaints and corrections: /contact/.