Tue, 19 May 2026
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Canada film3 Sep 2026

Toronto film festival opens. Its audience prize usually goes to its own premieres.

Apple released a trailer for Siân Heder's film Being Heumann on 2 September. It opens the 51st Toronto International Film Festival on 10 September.

3 min read

What happened

Apple Original Films released a teaser trailer on for Being Heumann, Siân Heder’s follow-up to CODA, ahead of its world premiere as the opening film of the Toronto Film Festival the following week.

The Toronto International Film Festival opens on with the world premiere of Being Heumann. Apple Original Films released the trailer on Wednesday . The opening screening is at Roy Thomson Hall.

Siân Heder made the film as her follow-up to CODA. It tells the story of the disability rights activist Judy Heumann, played by Ruth Madeley. In 1977 she led a 28-day sit-in, where protesters refused to leave a federal building in San Francisco.

The festival’s 51st edition runs from 10 to . Susanna White’s Prima Facie, with Cynthia Erivo, is another world premiere. The People’s Choice Award is voted by the audience across the programme and announced as the festival closes.

The award matters because of what comes after it. Six winners since 1999 went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars, Green Book and Nomadland among them. The next Oscar nominations are on , too late for any question that can close this autumn.

The nearer question is what kind of film wins. It may be one first shown in Toronto, or one that arrives from Venice or Telluride with a reputation already made.

Sources: Deadline (2, 3, 4), Variety (2)

The Pattern

We looked at the last eight People’s Choice winners and where each had its first screening, using trade and newspaper reports of the award. Five were first shown in Toronto. The other three came from Venice or Telluride.

5 of 8
Five of the last eight TIFF People's Choice winners had their world premiere in Toronto: Green Book in 2018, Jojo Rabbit in 2019, The Fabelmans in 2022, American Fiction in 2023 and The Life of Chuck in 2024. The three that did not, Nomadland in 2020, Belfast in 2021 and Hamnet in 2025, had premiered at Venice or Telluride. Eight festivals, 2018 to 2025, are the full record checked.
2025 Hamnet, Zhaonot held
2025: Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet won the People’s Choice Award after premiering at the Telluride film festival; Frankenstein and Wake Up Dead Man were runners-up. (Guardian, 14 Sep 2025) Sources: [1]
2024 The Life of Chuck, Flanaganheld
2024: Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck, a TIFF world premiere, won ahead of the Cannes titles Emilia Pérez and Anora. (Deadline, 15 Sep 2024) Sources: [1]
Show the other 6 cases
2023 American Fiction, Jeffersonheld
2023: Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction won after its world premiere in Toronto at the Princess Alexandra Theatre on , in a festival thinned by the actors’ and writers’ strikes. (Hollywood Reporter, 17 Sep 2023) Sources: [1]
2022 The Fabelmans, Spielbergheld
2022: Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans won a week after receiving its world premiere at the festival. (BBC, 18 Sep 2022) Sources: [1]
2021 Belfast, Branaghnot held
2021: Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast won after a world premiere in Telluride before arriving in Toronto; Scarborough and The Power of the Dog were runners-up. (Hollywood Reporter, 18 Sep 2021) Sources: [1]
2020 Nomadland, Zhaonot held
2020: Chloé Zhao’s Nomadland won after debuting in competition at Venice and taking a gala screening in Toronto; One Night in Miami and Beans were runners-up. (Hollywood Reporter, 20 Sep 2020) Sources: [1]
2019 Jojo Rabbit, Waititiheld
2019: Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit won after its world premiere screening at the festival the previous Sunday; Marriage Story and Parasite were runners-up. (Deadline, 15 Sep 2019; BBC, 15 Sep 2019) Sources: [1]
2018 Green Book, Farrellyheld
2018: Peter Farrelly’s Green Book won after screening as a TIFF Gala, where the trade reviews were filed on ; If Beale Street Could Talk and Roma were runners-up. (Hollywood Reporter review, 11 Sep 2018; Deadline, 16 Sep 2018) Sources: [1]

The Read

History favours a film first shown in Toronto. Five of the last eight winners were unveiled at the festival itself, including the three before Hamnet. The audience tends to reward films it discovers in the room over titles its keenest voters have already seen elsewhere. That is why the first market opened at 60%, a little below history, to allow for a year when the festival’s own films are not yet reviewed.

The weak point is the film that arrives with a name already made. Nomadland, Belfast and Hamnet each came from Venice or Telluride with reviews already published, and still won. The prediction fails if such a film plays Toronto in the first week and the festival’s own premieres split the vote.

Disclaimer

Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.

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