Maine's governor race is tied. Each time a governor had to leave, their party lost.

What happened

A Marist poll taken from 22 to 25 October has Republican Bobby Charles and Democrat Hannah Pingree level at 44% each in the race for governor of Maine, with independent Rick Bennett at 6%.

A new poll has the race for governor of Maine level. Marist asked voters from 22 to 25 October. Republican Bobby Charles and Democrat Hannah Pingree both have 44%, and Rick Bennett, who runs as an independent, has 6%. They are the only three names on the official list of candidates.

The vote is on 3 November 2026. Governor Janet Mills, a Democrat, has served two terms and cannot run again, so the office is open. Democrats have had the governor’s office since January 2019, when Mills took office. If Pingree loses, they give it up.

The person who has served 2 consecutive popular elective 4-year terms of office as Governor shall be ineligible to succeed himself or herself.

Constitution of Maine, Article V, Part 1, Section 2

On 26 October the state ethics commission fined the Charles campaign. By 5 votes to 0 it found that the campaign took $45,315.98 in gifts above the $2,075 limit. By 4 votes to 1 it set a fine of $22,657.99, half of that money. The Maine Democratic Party had asked for the inquiry, and the campaign had already paid back part of the money.

The commission’s staff had suggested a fine of 25%. By 3 votes to 2, it also turned down a plan to set the fine later, at another meeting before the vote.

Sources: nytimes.com

The Pattern

We looked for cases where a Maine governor could not run again after two four-year terms in a row, and the governor’s party had its own candidate in the general election. We found five such elections, from 1974 to 2018, in the list of Maine governors kept by the state law library. Each time, someone from another party or no party took over.

The Read

Every time since 1974, the party of a governor who had to leave lost the job. This year the poll is level a week before the vote, and Bennett’s 6% is larger than the gap between the two leaders. Across the US, Marist has Democrats ahead by 52% to 44% for Congress, and The New York Times writes that the polls point to a good night for Democrats.

There are reasons for doubt. All five elections were in Maine, so it was the same state’s voters each time. For 1974, 1986 and 1994 the official list shows who became governor, but not the votes. In two of the five an independent won, while this year’s independent has 6%. The ethics fine came on 26 October, after the poll was taken.