Bitcoin fell to $57,950, half its peak. Is this the bottom, or only halfway down?
Bitcoin opened July at $57,950, a 21-month low and about half its October 2025 peak. US Bitcoin funds lost about $4bn in June, their worst month ever.
What happened
Bitcoin fell to $57,950 on Wednesday, its lowest level in 652 days, opening the second half of 2026 roughly $47,000 below where it stood a year ago.
Bitcoin closed June down about 20%. The fall started after the US Federal Reserve met on . Its new chair, Kevin Warsh, kept interest rates at 3.50-3.75% and took away the rate cut markets had expected this year.
Within a week Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the first time since 2024. It is now about 54% below its peak of about $125,600 in .
This time the sellers are different. US spot Bitcoin ETFs, funds traded on the stock market that hold real Bitcoin, lost about $4 billion in June. That is their worst month since they launched in . BlackRock’s fund IBIT alone accounted for about three quarters of it.
Before that, money left the funds on 13 days in a row from mid-May, a record. More than $6 billion has left during the whole losing run, and for the first time more money has left the funds this year than has come in.
Companies that hold Bitcoin added to the worry. Strategy, the company with the most Bitcoin, said it sold 32 Bitcoin in June. It was its first sale since 2022, and the price was below the $75,699 it paid on average.
One analyst said the main buyer is now an ETF fund manager or a company treasury, and no longer a private investor. In June both were selling.
The Pattern
Bitcoin has fallen 50% from a peak four times before. Twice that point was close to the bottom, and new record highs came within months. Twice it was only halfway, and the price kept falling much further.
Show the other 2 cases
The Read
History is split evenly, and the money flows lean the gloomy way. The sellers now are big funds cutting risk, with the Fed possibly raising rates before the end of the year. Companies holding Bitcoin sit on losses against a $75,699 average cost. No obvious buyer stands behind them. In 2018 and 2022, being halfway down was where the second leg of the fall began.
The other view is that record selling is itself the sign that the fall is ending. Large holders took in about 270,000 coins while the funds sold. The same move from nervous sellers to strong holders marked the lows in 2020 and 2021. One surprise sign from Warsh’s Fed that rates will fall could turn the flows around quickly. In both earlier cases where halfway was the bottom, prices reached new highs in under a year.
The record is small, with four earlier falls, and this is the first one where money moving in and out of the funds sets the price. If the first two weeks of July show even small net inflows into the funds, the case for a bottom gets stronger.
Disclaimer
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