Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
UK golf30 Jun 2026

Scottie Scheffler defends the Open at Birkdale. No champion has kept it since 2008.

Final Qualifying on 30 June set the field for the 154th Open at Royal Birkdale. Scottie Scheffler arrives on 16 July to defend his title.

4 min read

What happened

Twenty players earned places at Royal Birkdale through Final Qualifying at four courses; Sergio Garcia, Matt Wallace and Wesley Bryan were among those who missed out.

Final Qualifying was played on at four courses: Burnham & Berrow, Dundonald Links, Royal Cinque Ports and West Lancashire. 288 players went for 20 places at Royal Birkdale. Wesley Bryan, a winner on the PGA Tour, dropped a shot on the last hole at West Lancashire and missed a play-off by one stroke.

The Open runs from 16 to at Royal Birkdale in Southport. It is the club’s eleventh Open and its first since Jordan Spieth won there in 2017.

The R&A has also added a Last Chance Qualifier, the first of its kind. Twelve golfers will play for one final place at Birkdale on the Monday of championship week.

Scottie Scheffler comes to defend the title he won at Royal Portrush in 2025, and he is the world number one. His last major was the US Open at Shinnecock Hills in June, where he tied for fourth. Wyndham Clark led that event from start to finish and stopped Scheffler from winning all four majors in his career.

Sources: Sky Sports, PGA Tour (2), The Open

The Pattern

None of the sixteen Open editions from 2009 through 2025, excluding 2020, had a repeat winner. This is an edition-level record, not sixteen participating defending champions.

0 of 16
No Open champion has retained the Claret Jug in the sixteen editions since Pádraig Harrington's 2008 defence at Birkdale. That is the honest weight against Scheffler the defender — even as Americans have won four of the last five Opens and Scheffler remains world number one. Editorial scoring note: The fixed historical window is the sixteen editions from 2009 through 2025, excluding the cancelled 2020 championship. None had a repeat winner. Harrington's 2008 defence is context outside that window. This counts editions, not sixteen participating defending champions.
2025 Scheffler, Royal Portrushnot held
Scottie Scheffler won at Royal Portrush for his first Claret Jug, setting up the first title defence by a world number one since Tiger Woods.
2024 Schauffele, Royal Troonnot held
Xander Schauffele won at Royal Troon on nine under.
Show the other 3 cases
2023 Harman, Royal Liverpoolnot held
Brian Harman won at Royal Liverpool by six shots on thirteen under.
2017 Spieth, Royal Birkdalenot held
Birkdale’s last Open: Jordan Spieth won on twelve under, three clear of Matt Kuchar.
2008 Harrington, Royal Birkdale
Pádraig Harrington won at Birkdale on three over — still the last successful Open title defence. Editorial scoring note: The fixed historical window is the sixteen editions from 2009 through 2025, excluding the cancelled 2020 championship. None had a repeat winner. Harrington’s 2008 defence is context outside that window. This counts editions, not sixteen participating defending champions.

The Read

History is against a successful defence. None of the sixteen editions from 2009 through 2025, excluding 2020, had a repeat winner. On a seaside links course the weather can change the result more than at any other major, and that is why ‘Another player’ carried 58 per cent in our market. Scheffler also comes from a major where Wyndham Clark beat him by leading from the first day to the last.

The case for Scheffler is still strong. He is the world number one and has won many of the biggest events for three seasons. He also won on a links course at Portrush a year ago. Birkdale is seen as a fair course that rewards the player who strikes the ball best, and few would say that is anyone but Scheffler. The market gave him 21 per cent, a big number for one man in a field of 156.

In the end the weather may decide more than the world ranking. Which half of the field plays in the worse conditions, or one bad round in the wind on Friday, can matter more at Birkdale than who is ranked first.

Disclaimer

Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.

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