The Michael Jackson film passes Oppenheimer. Will it make a billion dollars?
Antoine Fuqua's Michael Jackson film Michael passed Oppenheimer's $975m to become the biggest biopic ever. It now sits at $977m worldwide.
What happened
Michael passed Oppenheimer’s $975m to become the highest-grossing biopic ever, standing at $977m worldwide.
Antoine Fuqua’s film follows Michael Jackson’s rise from the Jackson 5 to world fame. Jackson’s nephew Jaafar Jackson plays him in his first acting role. It opened in April with $97m in North America and $217m worldwide, a record start for a film about a musician.
Earlier in June it passed Bohemian Rhapsody’s $910.8m to become the biggest film ever about a musician. It also passed the Hunger Games and Twilight films to become the biggest release in the history of Lionsgate, its studio. About $370m came from North America and $607m from other countries, which is unusual reach abroad for this kind of film.
Michael needs $23m more to reach $1bn worldwide. That would make it only the second 2026 film to pass $1bn, after The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. It got this far despite mixed reviews and criticism of how it deals with the abuse allegations against Jackson. Films this close to the line have stopped short before.
Sources: Variety, Billboard, Deadline
The Pattern
Of five recent films that crept towards $1bn, two passed it. We looked at films that got near $1bn mostly through long runs in cinemas. Some kept going because people told friends to see them. Others lost their screens just short of the line.
Show the other 3 cases
The Read
History looks split, but distance matters. Oppenheimer stopped $25m short after its run had already slowed. Michael needs $23m and is still showing in many countries where it has done better than expected, with $607m of its total from outside North America. Even if takings fall to $4m to $5m a week worldwide, it passes the line by early August. The 84% forecast reflects doubt about timing more than about the result.
The weak point is speed. Films nine weeks into their run can lose screens suddenly. If cinemas make room for big August films faster than expected, Michael might add only $2m to $3m a week and sit at $995m on . It would then pass $1bn in September, after the market closes. Bohemian Rhapsody is the warning here. Films about musicians draw older audiences, and older audiences stop coming all at once.
Weekly worldwide takings through July will decide it. A pace below $4m to $5m a week would make a September crossing more likely.
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