Tigst Assefa chases the marathon world record in Berlin. Will she take it back?

What happened

Tigst Assefa, who set a world record of 2:11:53 in Berlin in 2023, returns to the BMW Berlin Marathon on Sunday 27 September as the heavy favourite, aiming to run even faster.

Assefa won in Berlin in 2022 and 2023. Seven women in this year’s field have run under 2:20, but World Athletics calls Assefa the heavy favourite.

Before the race she said: “I am very well prepared and want to run a personal best.” Her last race was the London Marathon in April, which she won in 2:15:41, a world record for races with women only.

The world record is 2:09:56, set by Ruth Chepngetich in 2024. She ran it in Chicago. Chepngetich is now serving a three-year doping ban, but the record stands because it was set before the period the ban covers.

Sources: World Athletics, Al Jazeera

The Pattern

We looked for women’s marathons where the clear favourite did not hold the world record, had a slower best of her own, and ran at record pace from the start with male pacemakers, in cool weather. We found nine since 1998, and the record fell in six. Two more attempts, in London in 2018 and Chicago in 2021, were run in heat of 20 to 22C and both missed by more than eight minutes.

Show the other 7 cases

2023 Assefa, Berlinheld

September 2023: Tigst Assefa ran with male pacemakers from 17km and finished in 2:11:53, 2:11 inside the record. (World Athletics)

2022 Chepngetich, Chicagonot held

October 2022: Ruth Chepngetich passed halfway in 1:05:44 and stayed on record pace to 35km. She finished in 2:14:18, 14 seconds outside the record. (World Athletics)

2019 Kosgei, Chicagoheld

October 2019: Brigid Kosgei passed halfway in 1:06:59 and finished in 2:14:04, 81 seconds inside the record. (World Athletics)

2002 Radcliffe, Chicagoheld

October 2002: Paula Radcliffe, who had said she would go for the record, ran with male runners and finished in 2:17:18, 89 seconds inside it. (World Athletics)

2002 Takahashi, Berlinnot held

September 2002: Naoko Takahashi started inside record pace but slowed and finished in 2:21:49, 3:02 outside the record. (World Athletics)

2001 Takahashi, Berlinheld

September 2001: Naoko Takahashi ran behind five pacemakers to 35km and finished in 2:19:46, 57 seconds inside the record. (World Athletics)

1998 Loroupe, Rotterdamheld

April 1998: Tegla Loroupe passed halfway in 70:11 with three pacemakers and finished in 2:20:47, 19 seconds inside the record. (World Athletics)

The Read

History points to a record. In six of the nine races the favourite ran at record pace from the start and broke it, by 19 seconds to more than two minutes. Assefa needs to run 1.5% faster than her best, which is less than most of those who succeeded improved.

There are reasons for doubt. Ruth Chepngetich appears three times in the nine races. Assefa has not run with male pacemakers since 2023; her two London wins were in women-only races. Before this race she spoke of a personal best, not the record.

Halfway will tell little. All three misses were still on record pace at halfway and lost it after 30 to 35km.