Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
World Cup15 Jul 2026

Lionel Messi faces England for the first time. England won most World Cup meetings.

England play Argentina in a World Cup semi-final tonight in Atlanta, their first match in 21 years and the first time Lionel Messi faces England.

4 min read

What happened

England face Argentina in the second World Cup semi-final at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on , kick-off 15:00 local time, with the winner meeting Spain in the final at MetLife Stadium.

England and Argentina have not played each other since 2005. Tonight is also the first time Lionel Messi has faced England in his international career.

Argentina are the only team left in the semi-finals who have not dropped a point. In the quarter-final they beat ten-man Switzerland 3-1 after extra time. Alexis Mac Allister headed in Messi’s cross in the tenth minute, and Julián Álvarez scored from 25 yards in the 112th minute.

England needed extra time too. Norway took the lead in Miami, but Jude Bellingham scored twice, at 45+2 and 93 minutes, and England won the quarter-final 2-1.

Messi is joint top of the tournament’s scoring list with eight goals. Harry Kane and Bellingham have six each. Against Norway, Jordan Pickford played his 18th World Cup game, a record for an England goalkeeper.

Sources: FIFA (2), Al Jazeera, Sky Sports

The Pattern

England won three of the five earlier World Cup games. This is the sixth time the two sides meet at a World Cup. In the knockout rounds, England won only one of three, and Argentina won both games that went to the very end, in 1986 and 1998. All five are below, newest first.

N/A
England have won three of their five World Cup meetings with Argentina, and five is the full record. The three wins came in 1962, 1966 and 2002; the two defeats, in 1986 and 1998, were both knockout ties, which leaves England one from three when a place in the next round was on the line. Five cases is below the six Hunch requires to show History.
2002 Group stage, Sapporoheld
Group stage, Sapporo: England won 1-0 through Beckham’s 44th-minute penalty, four years after his red card.
1998 Round of 16, Saint-Étiennenot held
Round of 16, Saint-Étienne: 2-2 after extra time, with David Beckham sent off in the 47th minute; Argentina won the shoot-out 4-3.
Show the other 3 cases
1986 Quarter-final, Mexico Citynot held
Quarter-final, Mexico City: Argentina won 2-1 through Diego Maradona’s Hand of God and the Goal of the Century, scored four minutes apart.
1966 Quarter-final, Wembleyheld
Quarter-final, Wembley: England won 1-0 after Argentina captain Antonio Rattín was sent off; Geoff Hurst headed the only goal.
1962 Group stage, Rancaguaheld
Group stage, Rancagua: England won 3-1, their first World Cup win over Argentina.

The Read

History and form lean slightly towards England. They won three of the five World Cup meetings. Opta’s model gives them 52.3% to go through, Bellingham has scored four goals in two knockout games, and Kane and Bellingham are both within two goals of the top scorer.

The record is weaker where it matters most. In knockout games England beat Argentina only once in three, and they went out in 1986 and 1998 in games where they were not behind on the run of play. Argentina have not dropped a point at this World Cup, and Messi has eight goals. Our market sits at 51, close to a coin toss.

Disclaimer

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