Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
US tennis4 Sep 2026

Carlos Alcaraz is back after four months injured. Few such comebacks won the title.

Carlos Alcaraz, back from a wrist injury in April, plays Wu Yibing in round three. Jannik Sinner pulled out and Novak Djokovic lost in round one.

4 min read

What happened

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz came from a set down to beat Jaime Faria 4-6 6-0 6-3 6-2 in the second round of the US Open, his first tournament since mid-April, and meets Wu Yibing in the last 32 on Thursday .

Alcaraz had not played since mid-April. He hurt his right wrist in his opening match at the Barcelona Open, and a week later he withdrew from Rome and from Roland Garros, the French Open. On Wednesday night he came from a set down to beat Portugal’s Jaime Faria, ranked 72. His next opponent, China’s Wu Yibing, is ranked 113.

The draw has lost its two other favourites. Jannik Sinner withdrew on with a right-knee injury. Novak Djokovic, 39, lost to the world number 49 Mariano Navone, 7-6 5-7 4-6 6-2 6-1, after four hours and 36 minutes. It was his earliest exit at a major since the 2006 Australian Open.

Alcaraz, 23, is the defending champion and has won seven majors. After the Faria match he said he is hitting his forehand as he did before the injury. The BBC’s reporter said the test now is how his body copes with five-set matches close together after such a long break.

Sources: BBC, Guardian, US Open, Sky Sports

The Pattern

We looked at Grand Slam champions who, between 2017 and 2022, made a major their first tournament after four months or more out injured, and at how far they went. We found six. The newest come first, and the record comes from BBC Sport, the Guardian and Sky Sports.

1 of 6
One of the last six major champions who made a Grand Slam their first tournament after an injury absence of four months or more won the title: Federer at the 2017 Australian Open. Nadal reached the 2019 Melbourne final; Djokovic went out in the fourth round in 2018; Wawrinka and Andreescu lost in the second round, Serena Williams in the first. The full record is the same six cases, 2017 to 2022.
2022 Serena Williamsnot held
: a year after limping off Centre Court with an ankle injury, Williams, 40, made Wimbledon her singles return on a wildcard and lost 7-5 1-6 7-6 (10-7) to Harmony Tan in the first round. (BBC Sport)
2021 Andreescunot held
: the 2019 US Open champion played her first match in 15 months after a knee injury, won it, then fell in the second round. (Sky Sports)
Show the other 4 cases
2019 Nadalnot held
: Nadal, 32, had ended his 2018 season at the US Open semi-final with knee trouble and withdrew from Brisbane; in Melbourne he reached the final and lost 6-3 6-2 6-3 to Djokovic. (BBC Sport)
2018 Novak Djokovicnot held
: back after six months out with an elbow injury and without a serious warm-up match, Djokovic lost 7-6 7-5 7-6 to the unseeded Chung Hyeon in the fourth round. (Guardian)
2018 Wawrinkanot held
: the 2014 champion, 32, played his first event since Wimbledon after knee surgery, having pulled out of every warm-up, and lost 6-2 6-1 6-4 to the world number 97 Tennys Sandgren in round two. (Guardian)
2017 Federerheld
: after six months out with a knee injury, Federer, 35 and ranked 17th, beat Nadal 6-4 3-6 6-1 3-6 6-3 in the final for his 18th major. (Guardian)

The Read

History leans against a title. Alcaraz is the defending champion and the two players most likely to beat him are out, which is why the title market opens near the middle. But of the six major champions who last tried what he is trying, only Federer in 2017 turned his comeback into the trophy. Four of the six were out by the fourth round.

Age is the main doubt about this record. Federer was 35, Wawrinka and Nadal 32 and Serena Williams 40 when they returned. Andreescu, at 20, is the only one close to Alcaraz’s 23, and she went out in round two after 15 months away, far longer than his four and a half.

The second week will decide it. If the wrist lasts through a long match there, history is likely wrong this time. If his first five-set match shows the long break, history is right.

Disclaimer

Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.

Published by Hunch under the Editorial Code. Complaints and corrections: /contact/.

Comment

Comments are moderated. Members post under their prediction record.