Naomi Osaka beats world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka. Will an outsider win again?

What happened

Naomi Osaka beat world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka 6-2, 7-6(2) in the fourth round — Sabalenka’s first straight-sets defeat at a major since the 2020 US Open.

Osaka, the 14th seed, reached the first Wimbledon quarter-final of her career. Sabalenka had won their last three matches, including a fourth-round win in straight sets at Roland Garros only weeks earlier.

None of the top three seeds is left in the women’s draw. Second seed Elena Rybakina and third seed Iga Swiatek were already out, according to the official Wimbledon draw. Every woman still playing is chasing her first Wimbledon title, so the winner will be the ninth first-time champion in a row.

Osaka has won four majors but had never gone past the third round on grass before. She plays tenth seed Karolina Muchova next for a place in the semi-finals. The semi-finals are on 9 July and the final is on 11 July.

Sources: ESPN

The Pattern

No former champion has won the women’s title since 2016. In recent years it has often gone to a player the seedings did not rate near the top. Below are the last four champions and where each was seeded, with the same question the first market asks: was the winner seeded outside the top ten? Reports from ESPN, the WTA and the official Wimbledon records.

The Read

History leans towards a champion from outside the top ten. Of the last four winners, two were seeded 17th and 31st and one was not seeded at all. The last eight champions were all first-time winners, and this year the top three seeds went out before the quarter-finals. Recently this event has rewarded the player who keeps calm in the second week more than the one the rankings prefer. Osaka, seeded 14th, is on the outsider side herself, and our title market gave her 24 per cent as a four-time major champion with a serve that suits fast grass.

The seedings have not stopped mattering, though. The most recent final, in 2025, went to Iga Swiatek, who came in near the top of the rankings. Karolina Muchova, the tenth seed, has played a Roland Garros final and is the kind of varied player who has troubled big hitters here. Osaka’s own grass record is thin: this is her first Wimbledon quarter-final in eight visits, and one big win does not erase years of early exits.

The question is settled by the top-ten seeds still in the draw. If one of them wins the title now that the very top is gone, the outsider run ends.