Britain has had no judge on the UN's top court since 2018. Will Dapo Akande win?

What happened

The intervention from the Lord Chancellor and Chris Elmore, the Minister for the UN, comes ahead of a regular election to the court on 3 November.

Britain is pushing hard for its candidate to the UN’s top court. On 29 October Justice Secretary Alex Norris spoke at the UN General Assembly in New York for Professor Dapo Akande, together with UN minister Chris Elmore. Norris said Britain is “proud to support Professor Dapo Akande for election to the Court on 3 November”. In the same speech he said Britain does not support sanctions against the International Criminal Court, a different court in The Hague that the US hit with new sanctions on 9 October.

Nine candidates are running for five seats. The International Court of Justice settles disputes between countries. It has 15 judges who serve nine years, and a third of them are elected every three years. The 193 members of the General Assembly and the 15 members of the Security Council vote at the same time but separately. A winner needs a majority of all members in both: 97 votes and 8 votes. That can take many rounds.

Akande, who is both British and Nigerian, was put forward by 43 national groups of senior lawyers, more than any other candidate. France’s candidate, ambassador François Alabrune, has 40 and Singapore’s Rena Lee has 33. Two sitting judges, from Jordan and Kenya, are running again. The court can have only one judge from each country.

If Akande loses, Britain stays without a judge on the court until the next regular election in 2029, unless a seat falls empty before then. It has had none since February 2018. The term of France’s judge, Ronny Abraham, ends in February 2027, so France needs Alabrune to win to keep a judge there.

In order to be elected, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of the votes in both bodies. This sometimes makes it necessary for a number of rounds of voting to be held.

International Court of Justice, Members of the Court

Sources: GOV.UK (2, 3), The Guardian, ICJ (2, 3), United Nations (2, 3)

The Pattern

We looked for cases where a country with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council put up a new candidate, not a sitting judge, at a regular election to the court. We found four such elections since 2005: Russia in 2005 and 2014, Britain in 2008 and the US in 2023. Each new candidate was elected on the first day of voting.

The Read

Every new candidate from a permanent Security Council country since 2005 was elected on the first day: Russia twice, Britain in 2008 and the US in 2023. Each had a General Assembly majority from round one, though the Security Council needed more rounds three times. Akande has the most nominations of the nine candidates, and Britain sent two ministers to argue for him.

There are reasons for doubt. Each of those four replaced a judge from their own country whose term was ending, while Britain has had no judge since 2018. In 2017 the General Assembly turned away Britain’s sitting judge: his votes fell from 147 to 76 over six rounds, and he withdrew on 20 November. In 2023 Russia’s sitting judge got 77 votes when he needed 97. This year Britain and France both bring new candidates to the same vote, which did not happen in any of those four elections.

Sources: ICJ (2, 3, 4), United Nations, France at the UN