Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Formula 126 Sep 2026

F1 will decide on Qatar and Abu Dhabi by mid-October. One of seven such races ran.

The last two F1 races of 2026 are still on the calendar. Teams expect a final decision by mid-October, with Imola in Italy ready as a back-up.

4 min read

What happened

F1 team bosses said on that they expect a final decision by mid-October on whether the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix, the last two races of 2026, go ahead.

F1 teams expect a final decision on the last two races of the season by mid-October. Qatar is due on 27- and Abu Dhabi on 4-. Both are still on the calendar. Team bosses heard the timing at an F1 Commission meeting on , and Audi’s Mattia Binotto said: “Mid-October is the last call for such a decision.”

The two races have been in doubt since the war in the Middle East began in February. In March, F1 and the FIA, the body that runs world motor sport, cancelled the April races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. In July, F1’s chief executive, Stefano Domenicali, said Qatar and Abu Dhabi were confirmed and promised a decision in mid-September. If they had to move, he said, the season would end in Europe.

That date slipped. Reuters reported on that the decision could move to October, and that many in the sport expected Imola to hold a final race on . The head of Qatar’s motor sport federation said the country “has been safe for months now”.

F1 still plans to go. Sky Sports reported on that F1’s leaders judge the region stable enough to race if the events were happening now. Imola is getting ready in case it is needed, and F1 will pay its costs either way. Lewis Hamilton said: “I personally want to go.”

Sources: Sky Sports (2, 3), Reuters

The Pattern

We looked for cases where a round of an international racing series stayed on the calendar after war or unrest began in the host country or region, and the organiser decided before race weekend. We found seven since 2011, and one went ahead on its date and at its track. Five of the seven come from this year’s war in the Middle East, and the FIA, which also has a say on F1’s calendar, took part in five of the seven decisions.

1 of 7
In 1 of 7 cases the race went ahead on its date and at its track: F1 in Bahrain in 2012, after unrest inside the country. None of the five races kept on the calendar during this year's war in the Middle East went ahead as first planned.
2026 WRC Saudi rally droppednot held
On the FIA and the rally series took the 12- Rally Saudi Arabia out of the world championship, 59 days before it. No other rally was named in its place. (FIA, 17 Sep 2026)
2026 WEC Qatar moved to Barcelonanot held
On the endurance series and the FIA dropped the October race in Qatar and the November race in Bahrain, 88 days before the Qatar date, and named Barcelona and Monza instead. (FIA WEC, 28 Jul 2026)
Show the other 5 cases
2026 MotoGP Qatar moved to Novembernot held
On MotoGP moved its 10- Qatar round to , 28 days before the first date. (Al Jazeera, 15 Mar 2026)
2026 F1 Bahrain and Saudi cancellednot held
On F1 and the FIA cancelled the April races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, 29 and 36 days before them. Portugal and Imola were looked at, but there was not enough time. (skysports.com)
2026 WEC Qatar put off to Octobernot held
On the endurance series put off its 26- race in Qatar, 25 days before it, and on set 22- as the new date. (FIA WEC, 3 Mar 2026)
2012 F1 Bahrain went aheadheld
On the FIA said the Bahrain race would go ahead as scheduled, nine days before it. It was run on . (Al Jazeera, 13 Apr 2012)
2011 F1 Bahrain called offnot held
Bahrain’s organisers called off the 11- race 20 days before it. A new date of was set on and dropped a week later. (Sky Sports, 22 Feb 2011 (web archive))

The Read

History leans against the races going ahead. Of seven races kept on the calendar after war or unrest nearby, one went ahead as planned: Bahrain in 2012, when the trouble was inside the country, not a war across the region. The two decisions taken late in the year came 59 and 88 days before the race, and only one named another track.

The record is small and closely tied together. Five of the seven come from this year’s war in the Middle East, and the FIA took part in five of the seven decisions. Two things are different now. F1 says the region is stable enough and it still plans to go, and Imola is ready as a back-up, which most of the cases did not have.

Disclaimer

Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.

Published by Hunch under the Editorial Code. Complaints and corrections: /contact/.

Comment

Comments are moderated. Members post under their prediction record.