Andy Burnham says Channel crossings halved. Such claims held up half the time.

What happened

In a Commons statement the Prime Minister says numbers arriving over the summer halved on last year, making this year to date the lowest for crossings since 2021.

On 1 September the Prime Minister told the House of Commons that small boat arrivals over the summer had halved compared with last year. He said this made 2026 so far the lowest year for crossings since 2021. He also said more French police on the beaches were delivering results, and that French help had stopped more than 48,000 people crossing.

Both parts of the claim can be checked in one published file, which is unusual for a political claim about migration.

From 1 June to 27 August, 7,249 people arrived by small boat. Over the same dates in 2025 it was 14,191, so this year is 51 per cent of last year. The figures come from the Home Office, which publishes daily and weekly counts of small boat arrivals.

For the year to 27 August, arrivals stand at 16,391. At the same point, 2025 had 29,003, 2024 had 19,819, 2023 had 19,801 and 2022 had 25,065. The only recent year lower was 2021, at 12,482. On these figures both parts of the statement are correct.

The same file shows why the next month matters. Crossings depend on the weather, so the figures have long quiet stretches and sudden jumps. The week to 23 August had 250 arrivals in three boats, one of the quieter weeks of the summer. Then 27 August alone had 494 arrivals in seven boats.

Of the 34 full weeks to 23 August, 14 had more than 500 arrivals. The thirty days to 31 August had 1,987 in all.

Sources: GOV.UK (2)

The Pattern

Ministers put a number on a fall four times since 2023. We looked for times when the Prime Minister or a Home Office minister said by how much small boat arrivals had fallen on the year before. The record starts in 2023, the first year arrivals fell. For each claim we checked the next thirty days in the Home Office daily figures. We asked whether arrivals were below the same thirty days a year earlier by at least the share claimed.

The Read

History gives no clear answer. Of four earlier claims by ministers, two were matched by the next thirty days and two were not, for different reasons. One was made in June, before the summer peak. The other set a target that the next month missed by two points. Four claims is also a small record. This year’s figures lean towards the claim. The busiest thirty days this year had 3,428 arrivals, from 22 July, and the thirty days to 31 August had 1,987. The line of 2,611 sits between the two.

The weather will decide it more than policy. Crossings come in bursts, such as 494 arrivals on one day in late August after two quiet weeks. French efforts stop some attempts before they start, but they do not smooth out the total. The two weekly markets ask the same question over a shorter time. The year will stay well below 2025. The open question is whether the government still says halved once the September weeks are counted.