Morocco beat Canada 3-0 and face France again. Recent rematches went the same way.
Azzedine Ounahi scored twice as Morocco beat hosts Canada 3-0. Next is a quarter-final with France, who beat Morocco in the 2022 semi-final in Doha.
What happened
Ounahi scored twice as Morocco beat Canada 3-0 in Houston, making the co-hosts the first of the three home nations to exit and booking a quarter-final with France.
After a slow first half in Houston, Morocco took control. Azzedine Ounahi collected Achraf Hakimi’s free-kick and drove a shot through a crowd of players into the bottom corner. He added a second in the 82nd minute from a counter-attack pass by Brahim Díaz.
In stoppage time Díaz set up the substitute Soufiane Rahimi. It was his fourth World Cup assist, a new record for an African player. Canada were the first of the three host nations to go out.
Morocco had already knocked out the Netherlands on penalties in the round of 32, winning the shootout 3-2 after a 1-1 draw. In 2022 they became the only African side ever to reach a World Cup semi-final, and they are now one game from doing it at two World Cups in a row.
Next is France in Boston on Thursday . France beat Paraguay 1-0 in Philadelphia with a 69th-minute penalty from Kylian Mbappé, his seventh goal of the tournament. France beat Morocco 2-0 in the 2022 semi-final in Doha, and Morocco have waited three and a half years for the rematch.
Sources: Al Jazeera (2), Sky Sports
The Pattern
We looked at World Cup knockout games where two teams met again after an earlier knockout game between them. In the last four, the team that won the first game won again. Four games is a small record.
Show the other 2 cases
The Read
History leans towards France. In all four recent rematches the first winner won again. France have Mbappé joint top of the scoring charts and have won a knockout game without letting in a goal. Morocco’s 2022 run also ended at this stage, against this same team.
The case for Morocco is that this team is different. The 2022 side defended its way to the semi-final, and this one scores goals: three against Canada, a shootout win over the Netherlands and a new African assist record for Brahim Díaz. France needed a penalty given after a video review (VAR) to beat Paraguay and have looked less fluent than their results. The market gives Morocco 34 per cent, well above what the rematch record alone would suggest.
Disclaimer
Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.
Published by Hunch under the Editorial Code. Complaints and corrections: /contact/.