The US growth figure is out on 29 October. When war pushed up oil, it came in slow.
The US publishes its first growth figure for July to September on 29 October. An Atlanta Federal Reserve model expects 3.5%, up from 2.2%.
What happened
US consumer sentiment fell to 48.0 in October, the second lowest ever, while total spending held up, days before the growth figure.
The US government publishes its first estimate of growth for July to September on . The Bureau of Economic Analysis, the official statistics office, puts it out at 8:30 in the morning, Washington time, with personal income and spending for September. Its latest figures, out on , show yearly growth rates of 2.5% for January to March and 2.2% for April to June. The 2.2% for April to June is the third estimate for that quarter.
A model run by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta put growth for July to September at 3.5% on . The bank updates the model every week, next on , and says it is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve.
The University of Michigan’s index of how people feel about the economy fell to 48.0 in October, the second lowest ever after 44.8 in May. Joanne Hsu, who runs the survey, said total spending stayed “relatively resilient despite negative views of the economy“. Prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, pushed up by the war with Iran, and petrol costs $4.29 a gallon.
GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026. October 29, 8:30 AM.
BEA release schedule
The figure lands five days before the elections on , and both parties are fighting over the economy. Donald Trump’s team calls it a “new golden age“, while a Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos poll found Republicans 9 points behind Democrats on the economy. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for the Senate in Michigan, said “the cost of gas, the cost of groceries, it all really goes back to this war in Iran“. The Federal Reserve raised its interest rate to 3.75% to 4% on and meets again on 27 and .
Sources: independent.co.uk
The Pattern
We looked for cases where a war pushed up oil or energy prices in a quarter, or in the quarter before, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis then published its first estimate of growth. We found seven such quarters since 2003, from four wars: Iraq, Libya, Ukraine and Iran. Every one of the seven first figures was 2.0% a year or less, below today’s 2.2%.
Show the other 5 cases
The Read
The Atlanta model’s 3.5% on would be faster than any of the seven first figures since 2003, where the highest was 2.0% in . The Federal Reserve also wrote on that “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace“ and that spending at home “has been resilient“. Every one of the seven past first figures pointed the other way.
Six times out of six, the third estimate two months later kept the quarter on the same side of the quarter before it as the first figure did. The seventh time, in 2003, the two came out equal.
There are reasons for doubt about the past figures. Each is compared with today’s 2.2%. Against the quarter just before it, four of the seven sped up. They also come in pairs, two each from three wars (Libya, Ukraine, Iran) and one from Iraq, all from the same statistics office. The first figures for the war years 1973, 1980 and 1990 are not on open pages, so they are not counted.
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