Trump says a Canada tariff deal could come before 3 November. Will Canada sign?
US President Donald Trump says a tariff deal with Canada could come before the US elections on 3 November. Canada says its position has not changed.
What happened
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said trade talks with the Trump administration have picked up slightly. Donald Trump says a deal could come before the elections.
Donald Trump says a tariff deal with Canada is close. At a campaign rally in Michigan on , the US president said Canada was “willing to give us anything at this moment“ and that a deal would be settled “pretty soon“. He told a Detroit television station that it could come before the elections for Congress on , although it might take months. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has said the two countries are close to a deal. On Reuters reported, citing unnamed sources, that the two sides are working on a deal to ease tariffs on steel and cars.
Canada says it has not given ground. Prime Minister Mark Carney said on that talks had picked up slightly, but Canada’s position has not changed. “To the extent any progress has been made, it’s because the U.S. is coming closer to our position“, he said. Asked if Trump would keep a new deal, he answered “I don’t know that“. On he said Canada could sign “this afternoon if the US were there“, or wait months, or wait for a new US government.
The two countries have been in a tariff fight since August. Talks broke down that month, when Canada said the US terms crossed its “red lines“. The US then put a 50% tariff on about $20bn of Canadian goods, and Canada answered with its own measures. On the White House said it would lift the 50% tariff on some goods, such as plywood and some paper products, from , and add tariffs on others, such as carpets. If no deal comes, the rest of the 50% tariff stays.
Tariffs are now part of the US election. Republican Senator Susan Collins, who is in a close race in Maine, announced the cuts first and said she would keep asking for “a broader trade agreement with Canada“. In Michigan, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers says in an advert that “we need to end this tariff war now“. Carney, meanwhile, hosts European Union leaders in Montreal on 29 and , as Canada tries to sell more outside the US.
Sources: independent.co.uk
The Pattern
We looked for cases where the US was in talks to cut tariffs with a much smaller neighbour that had answered US tariffs with its own. We found six such talks since 2018, five with Canada and one with Mexico. Each time it was the same man deciding for the US: Donald Trump.
Show the other 4 cases
The Read
Some facts point to a deal. The one time a deal came by Trump’s date, in 2018, Canada agreed late on the last day, and that deal also came weeks before US elections for Congress. This time a White House adviser says the two sides are close, and Reuters reports they are working on steel and car tariffs. Senator Susan Collins and other Republicans in border states are asking for tariff relief before the vote.
There are reasons for doubt. Each time it was the same man deciding: Donald Trump. Five of the six talks were with Canada, and three of those belong to one fight that began in 2025. In 2018 Canada had 34 days after Trump’s deal with Mexico, while now there are nine days from his promise to . In August Canada walked away from an almost finished deal, and none of the five earlier talks came after a walkout like that.
Disclaimer
Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.
Published by Hunch under the Editorial Code. Complaints and corrections: /contact/.