Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
UK football21 Aug 2026

Nine Premier League clubs have new bosses. Any manager sacked by 30 September?

The Premier League season opened with a record 9 managers in their first league game for their club. Average time in the job is a record low 474 days.

4 min read

What happened

A record nine Premier League clubs begin 2026-27 with a manager taking charge of his first league game for the club, the most in an English top-flight season since 1946-47, with average tenure across the 20 clubs at 474 days, the lowest opening-day figure of the Premier League era.

The transfer window closes at 23:00 BST on Tuesday . It opened on . After it closes, a manager who is struggling can no longer blame an unfinished squad. A club board that wants a change must then choose between acting before the September international break and waiting for the winter.

Nine of the 20 clubs start the season with a manager appointed since the end of 2025-26. Opta’s figures show this is the most managers taking charge of a first league game for a club on an opening weekend in the English top flight since 1946-47.

The average time in the job across the 20 clubs is 474 days, the lowest on opening day in the Premier League era. The five-season average for finished spells in the job is 1.9 years, the fourth lowest on record.

The nine are Marco Rose at Bournemouth, Xabi Alonso at Chelsea, Pierre Sage at Crystal Palace, Alvaro Arbeloa at Fulham, Gary O’Neil at Ipswich, Andoni Iraola at Liverpool, Enzo Maresca at Manchester City, Matthias Jaissle at Newcastle and Oliver Glasner at Nottingham Forest. Manchester United and Tottenham have managers who arrived in January and March.

At the other end, Mikel Arteta had been in charge at Arsenal for 2,432 days by . The average age of a Premier League manager is 47.1, the youngest in twenty years.

Sources: Sky Sports, Premier League

The Pattern

We looked at every Premier League season since 2017-18 and asked one question: did any club sack its manager on or before ? A club announcing a sacking, a parting of company or a manager relieved of duties all count. Managers who resigned to join another club, or who left before the season or as temporary caretakers, do not.

3 of 8
Three of the last eight seasons had a Premier League sacking by 30 September, and four of nine since 2017-18. The early ones share a shape: three or four games, and either a rout, a single point, or a public row with the owner. What raises the number this year is the state of the league rather than the calendar: tenure is at a record low, nine dressing rooms have a manager they had not worked with in July, and once the window shuts every board can measure its head coach against the squad it paid for. What holds it down is that a board which has just hired, backed and paid for a manager has every reason to wait for winter.
2025 Nottingham Forest, Nunoheld
Forest relieved Nuno Espírito Santo of his duties three games into the season after a public falling-out with the owner Evangelos Marinakis, and Ange Postecoglou agreed to replace him the next day. (Sky Sports, 8 Sep 2025; Guardian, 9 Sep 2025) Sources: [1]
2024 Manchester United, ten Hagnot held
Erik ten Hag was still rebuffing sacking talk on and Manchester United dismissed him on , the season’s first Premier League sacking, with the side 14th after nine games. (Guardian, 29 Sep 2024; Guardian, 28 Oct 2024; Sky Sports, 28 Oct 2024) Sources: [1]
Show the other 6 cases
2023 Sheffield United, Heckingbottomnot held
Sheffield United’s dismissal of Paul Heckingbottom on , with Chris Wilder returning, was the season’s first Premier League sacking. (Guardian, 5 Dec 2023; Sky Sports, 5 Dec 2023) Sources: [1]
2022 Bournemouth, Parkerheld
Bournemouth dismissed Scott Parker three days after a 9-0 defeat at Liverpool, four games into the season, despite the promotion he had won them the year before. (Guardian, 30 Aug 2022; Sky Sports, Aug 2022) Sources: [1]
2021 Watford, Xisconot held
Watford’s dismissal of Xisco Muñoz on , with the club 14th, was the season’s first Premier League sacking, three days past the threshold. (Guardian, 3 Oct 2021) Sources: [1]
2020 West Brom, Bilićnot held
West Brom’s dismissal of Slaven Bilić on made him, in the Guardian’s words, the first top-flight manager out that season. (Guardian, 16 Dec 2020; Guardian Fiver, 16 Dec 2020) Sources: [1]
2019 Watford, Graciaheld
Watford replaced Javi Gracia with Quique Sánchez Flores after one point from the opening four games. (Guardian, 7 Sep 2019) Sources: [1]
2018 Fulham, Jokanovićnot held
Fulham’s dismissal of Slaviša Jokanović on , with the club bottom and Claudio Ranieri appointed, was the season’s first Premier League sacking. (Guardian, 14 Nov 2018) Sources: [1]

The Read

History leans slightly against a September sacking. Three of the last eight seasons had one, and each needed more than a poor start: a 9-0 defeat, one point from four games, or a public row with the owner. What pushes this season up is the number of new managers. Nine boards have a manager with no history at the club, time in the job is at a record low, and the window closing on removes the last excuse. No earlier season in the record had this many new managers, so the first market sits a little above three in eight.

The case against is that clubs usually give a new manager time. A club that hired in the summer, backed him in the transfer window and paid compensation to the manager before him has every financial reason to wait. In the other five seasons the first sacking came between and . Without a clear crisis, the prediction fails quietly: a run of narrow defeats, a board that waits for the November break, and nothing to settle in September.

Disclaimer

Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.

Published by Hunch under the Editorial Code. Complaints and corrections: /contact/.

Comment

Comments are moderated. Members post under their prediction record.