Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
US midterms25 Oct 2026

Florida votes on a cut to tax on homes. Voters backed every such cut since 2016.

Florida votes on 3 November on Amendment 3, a big cut to property tax on homes. It needs 60% yes and could cut city budgets by up to 23%.

4 min read

What happened

Amendment 3 on Florida’s ballot would cut property tax for homeowners, but could cut city budgets by up to 23% next year.

Florida changes its constitution only when at least 60% of voters on the question say yes. On voters decide Amendment 3, a property tax change that state lawmakers put on the ballot. It raises the part of a home’s value that is free from tax to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028. It also cuts the yearly rise allowed in the taxed value of other property from 10% to 5%.

The change also lets cities and counties spend property tax only on a fixed list of basic services, such as public safety and schools. Lawmakers passed it on , by 75 votes to 26 and 30 to 9, in a special session that Governor Ron DeSantis had announced on , and a governor’s veto does not apply to it.

The Guardian says the change would cut a typical homeowner’s bill by about $1,000, but could cut city budgets by up to 23% next year. A state estimate puts the loss of local property tax outside schools at $4.95bn in 2027-28 and $8.78bn in 2028-29. Florida counties and cities collected $32.3bn in property tax in 2025, against $24.3bn in 2022.

If the proposed amendment or revision is approved by vote of at least sixty percent of the electors voting on the measure, it shall be effective

Constitution of the State of Florida, Article XI, section 5(e)

Governor DeSantis told a meeting in Miami on : “Vote YES on Amendment 3!“ The Florida League of Cities, which speaks for the state’s cities, says “Amendment 3 is not a tax cut, it’s a tax shift“.

Sources: theguardian.com

The Pattern

We looked for cases where Florida lawmakers asked voters to cut property tax at a November general election, after the 60% rule came in, while local property tax had grown by a fifth or more in three years. We found nine such votes from 2016 to 2024, on five election days. All nine got more yes votes than no votes, and six reached 60%.

6 of 9
Six of nine property tax cuts that Florida lawmakers put to voters at general elections from 2016 to 2024 reached 60%. Three got 57% to 59% and failed, all at midterm elections, which fall halfway through a president's term.
2024 Florida, Amendment 5, 2024held
In voters agreed that the home tax break for all taxes except school tax should rise with prices each year. It passed with 66.0%, six points above the 60% needed.
2022 Florida, Amendment 3, 2022not held
In , at a midterm election that falls halfway through a president’s term, an extra home tax break of up to $50,000 for public workers such as teachers and police got 58.7% and failed.
Show the other 7 cases
2022 Florida, Amendment 1, 2022not held
On the same day in 2022, a rule that flood protection work on a home could not raise its taxed value got 57.3% and failed.
2020 Florida, Amendment 6, 2020held
In voters let the widow or widower of a veteran disabled in combat keep the veteran’s home tax discount. It passed with 89.7%.
2020 Florida, Amendment 5, 2020held
On the same day in 2020, voters gave homeowners three years instead of two to move their built-up tax saving to a new home. It passed with 74.5%.
2018 Florida, Amendment 2, 2018held
In , a midterm election, voters kept for good the 10% yearly limit on rises in the taxed value of property other than homes. It passed with 66.5%.
2018 Florida, Amendment 1, 2018not held
On the same day in 2018, a bigger home tax break for all homeowners, with home value from $100,000 to $125,000 free of tax except school tax, got 58.1% and failed.
2016 Florida, Amendment 5, 2016held
In voters approved a local tax break for poor older homeowners who had lived in the same home for a long time. It passed with 78.3%.
2016 Florida, Amendment 3, 2016held
On the same day in 2016, a home tax break for emergency workers left fully disabled on duty passed with 83.8%.

The Read

The vote on is a midterm election, which falls halfway through a president’s term. Every one of the nine got more yes votes than no votes, even the three that failed. Those three missed 60% by 1.3 to 2.7 points and all came at the midterms of 2018 and 2022, where one of four reached 60%, while at the three presidential elections all five did.

Amendment 3 is larger than any of the nine and is the first to limit what cities may spend property tax on. In 2018 a smaller break for all homeowners, with home value from $100,000 to $125,000 free of tax, got 58.1%.

Two broad cuts outside the nine went different ways. A cut for homes and other property passed with 64.1% on a primary day in , while a broad cut in 2012, when property tax was falling, got 43.2%.

Disclaimer

Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.

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