Alaska counts until 18 November. US Senate control was usually clear within days.

What happened

The Associated Press says it names a winner only when it is sure the candidates behind cannot catch up.

All big US TV networks will use the Associated Press vote count on 3 November. Deadline reported on 21 October that this is the first election in ten years where they all do. The Associated Press, a US news agency, collects results from about 5,000 points in polling places and counties, and each network still names winners itself.

David Scott, who leads election work at the Associated Press, said it names a winner only when it is sure the candidates behind cannot catch up. Prediction markets buy its data, he said, but the team that names winners does not use theirs.

Accuracy is 100, and speed is zero.

David Scott, Associated Press, 21 October 2026

Control of the Senate could come down to Alaska, The Guardian reported on 23 October. Polls show Republican senator Dan S Sullivan level with Democrat Mary Peltola, and a second Republican, Daniel J Sullivan, is also on the ballot. President Donald Trump said he told the Justice Department to sue to pause the official approval of Alaska’s result.

Alaska voters rank the candidates. Postal ballots sent by 3 November count if they arrive by 13 November. The final count is on 18 November, the 15th day after the vote, and only then are second choices moved if no one has more than half. All results stay unofficial until the state approves them, planned for 25 November.

Sources: deadline.com

The Pattern

We looked for cases where control of the US Senate could depend on a race that might go to a second round, and counted the days from the vote until the Associated Press, or the results service it used, named the majority party. We found five such elections since 2002, all counted by the Associated Press.

The Read

Each time the Senate was settled quickly, one party reached a majority from other races, so a second round did not matter. In 2022 Nevada gave Democrats their 50th seat four days after the vote, weeks before Georgia’s second round. This year the race that may decide the Senate is in Alaska, where second choices are counted only on 18 November.

The Justice Department lawsuit asks to pause the official approval of Alaska’s result, planned for 25 November. The Associated Press names winners from the count, so what can delay the news of who won is a close count in Alaska.

There are reasons for doubt. All five elections were counted by the Associated Press, and in 2002 its results came from a shared service that also supplied the networks. Reports from 2002, 2014 and 2016 named the majority without saying the Associated Press declared it. And this year, for the first time in ten years, every big network uses the same count.