More oil leaves the Gulf, yet prices rose again. Will US oil hit $110 in November?
Brent, the main world oil price, briefly passed $117 a barrel on 30 October. The US oil price was about $104, after closing at $110.01 on 19 October.
What happened
Brent crude for December delivery rose more than 2% on to briefly top $117 a barrel, its highest since April, even though oil exports from the Gulf are back above their pre-war level.
Brent oil briefly passed $117 a barrel on . Brent is the main world price for oil, and this was the price for oil delivered in December. It rose more than 2% that day, to its highest level since April. Brent cost about $72 in February, before the war with Iran began, so it is now more than 60% higher.
The rise started on , when Brent jumped 4% to $113.17, its highest in five months. On it went past $117 for the first time since April, then eased to just over $116. By it was at about $114.50, and on it reached $117 again. The US oil price, known as WTI, closed at $110.01 on and $109.72 on , and was at about $104 on .
More oil is leaving the Gulf than before the war. Exports from the region averaged 24.6 million barrels a day in the week to , above the pre-war average, according to shipping data quoted by Al Jazeera. In September, 40% of Gulf exports went around the Strait of Hormuz through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, against 17% before the war.
Analysts say traders fear that the fighting will start again. World oil stocks fell by 10 million barrels in September, the International Energy Agency said. Moving a barrel out of the Gulf now costs up to $40, about ten times the usual rate. In the UK, diesel cost 198.79p a litre on , according to the RAC motoring group.
US President Donald Trump said there would be no new US strikes on Iran before the US midterm elections on . On he asked: “do I make a deal with them or do I finish them off?”
On Friday, Brent crude front-month futures – contracts for oil deliveries in December – rose more than 2 percent to briefly top $117 a barrel.
Al Jazeera,
Sources: Al Jazeera (2, 3, 4), The Guardian (2, 3), US Energy Information Administration
The Pattern
We looked for cases where Brent oil closed at its highest price in at least three months, and news reports at the time linked the rise to a war or to a break in oil supply. Daily prices for Brent and US oil, for oil delivered now, come from the US Energy Information Administration and go back to 1987. We found six such times since 2002. For each one we looked at the price from one to five weeks after that first high day, about the same weeks that November covers now.
Show the other 4 cases
The Read
US oil closed at $109.72 on , just under $110. On it was at about $104, close to its price of $104.27. In 2002, 2018 and US oil rose 5.5% or more above its price on the first high day within about five weeks. In 2006 it rose less than 5.5%, between about 2% and 4% depending on the starting day, and in 2019 and 2025 it stayed below its start from the second week on. The $110 question counts even one minute at that price, while these past prices are daily closes.
Brent for December was at $118 on , eight days after its level of $113.17. In 2002, 2018 and the price was above its starting level a week to nine days later, and each time it was still above it five weeks on. In 2006, 2019 and 2025 it was below its start a week later, and each of those ended lower, even though in 2006 and 2025 it had been at or above its start in the first few days. The January price, which settles the two Brent questions, was lower than December’s.
There are reasons for doubt. is the same war as today. The official US price for is missing, so that start comes from the days just before and after. The past prices are for oil delivered now, while the November questions use prices for later delivery, and in 2026 the two have been up to $34 apart. In none of the earlier times were exports already back above their pre-war level. In 2019 and 2025 the price fell soon after one side acted: Saudi Arabia restored its output, and a ceasefire came within a week. On officials from Qatar flew to Tehran, working with the US, to try to revive the ceasefire.
Sources: US Energy Information Administration (2), Al Jazeera (2, 3), The Guardian (2, 3)
Disclaimer
Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.
Published by Hunch under the Editorial Code. Complaints and corrections: /contact/.