Euro area growth slowed and France shrank. Will 2026 still come in at 1% or more?

What happened

Eurostat’s first estimate puts euro area growth in July to September at 0.4%, after 0.6% in April to June. France shrank 0.1%.

The euro area economy grew 0.4% in July to September. Eurostat, the statistics office of the European Union, published this first estimate on 30 October. Growth was 0.6% in April to June. Compared with a year earlier, the economy was 1.3% bigger. Ireland grew 5.5% in the quarter, and Lithuania and France shrank.

The figure for the whole year is built from the four quarters. Eurostat’s table shows growth of 0.0%, 0.6% and 0.4% in the first three quarters of 2026. By our rough sum from that table, if October to December shows no growth, the year comes out at about 1.0%. So the last quarter and any changes to the earlier quarters decide whether 2026 lands above or below 1%. Ireland’s growth swung from a 7.8% fall to a 10.2% rise this year, and such swings move the average.

France shrank 0.1%, after a fall early in the year and no growth in the spring. Roland Lescure, the French economy minister, said the economy was “at a standstill”. He blamed the summer heat and energy prices, and said France would “hit the wall” without the spending cuts in its 2027 budget.

Next release: 29 January 2027

Eurostat, euro indicators, first estimate for July to September 2026

The figures for July to September will be updated on 13 November, 7 December and 19 January. The first estimate for October to December, with the first figure for all of 2026, comes on 29 January. The European Central Bank kept its interest rates the same on 29 October and meets again on 17 December.

Sources: Eurostat, Politico Europe, European Central Bank (2)

The Pattern

We looked for cases where Eurostat published figures for the first three quarters of a year while one euro area country’s quarterly growth swung by 5% or more, up and down. We found four such years, from 2007 to 2025, and add 2002, when Eurostat’s table had no quarterly figures for Ireland. In four of the five, the year’s first figure was no lower than three quarters showed.

The Read

In the 24 years from 2002 to 2025, the first figure for the year came in at least 0.15 points lower than the first three quarters showed four times: 2008, 2011, 2012 and 2020. Each time, October to December shrank. In other years it was never more than 0.03 points lower. Growth of 0.4% in July to September was faster than the 0.3% that European Central Bank staff expected in September, and they expected 0.4% for October to December.

There are reasons for doubt. On 29 October the central bank said energy prices had risen above its September forecast, that they “have hit consumer confidence”, and that dearer borrowing was likely to weigh on growth. In September its staff put growth for all of 2026 at 0.9%, before the stronger summer figures. Even if October to December does not shrink, 2026 lands close to 1.0%, so small changes to earlier quarters can move it to either side.

Eurostat will update its July to September figure on 13 November, 7 December and 19 January. In 2002, 2007 and 2025, that figure was 0.1 points higher by the first figure for the year. It was unchanged in 2009 and lower in 2020. This year Eurostat calls its 5.5% figure for Ireland experimental and open to revision, and Irish data already cut the January to March figure. Only four years from 2002 to 2025 showed a swing like Ireland’s this year.

France has not grown in any quarter of 2026: Eurostat shows a fall of 0.2%, no growth, then a fall of 0.1%. Roland Lescure said the 2027 budget, which cuts €43bn to bring the deficit down to 5% of national income, is needed to get growth going again in October to December. France’s parliament did not pass a budget before the new year in 2024 or 2025.

Sources: Eurostat, European Central Bank (2), Politico Europe