UK sells HMS Bulwark to Brazil with no replacement ready. Past gaps lasted years.
The Ministry of Defence confirmed the sale of HMS Bulwark to Brazil's navy. Sister ship HMS Albion awaits disposal. No replacement has been built.
What happened
The Ministry of Defence confirmed HMS Bulwark will be sold to the Brazilian Navy, ending more than 20 years of Royal Navy service, with sister ship HMS Albion at Devonport awaiting disposal.
HMS Bulwark is a landing ship, built to carry troops and vehicles from sea to shore. She entered service in 2005 and was the Royal Navy’s flagship from 2011 to 2015. She took civilians out of Lebanon in 2006 and guarded the sailing events at the 2012 Olympics. Her sister ship, HMS Albion, is at Devonport waiting to be sold or scrapped.
The replacement is the Multi Role Support Ship programme. In the UK and the Netherlands signed a £2.4bn deal for eight ships, four for each navy. Each will be 160 metres long and weigh 15,000 tonnes, with flight decks built for drones and other crewless systems.
The UK has confirmed £1.5bn for the ships in its Defence Investment Plan, its plan for spending on defence equipment. They are to be built in British yards, working with Dutch industry.
No date has been given for the first ship to enter service. The announcement names a budget, a partner, a size and a number of ships. It does not name a shipyard or a signed contract. Lord Coaker, a defence minister, called the deal a vote of confidence in British shipbuilding.
Sources: GOV.UK
The Pattern
We looked for every time since 2010 that the Ministry of Defence retired, cancelled or sold a type of Royal Navy ship or aircraft before the one replacing it was built. We asked one question: within 18 months, was the replacement working, or on track for a date announced in advance? We found three cases, and each left a gap of years.
Show the other 2 cases
The Read
History points to no date by . In none of the three earlier cases was a replacement in service, or on track for a promised date, within 18 months. The reasons have not changed. Ships go when running costs bite. Replacements arrive when a building slot, the money and space in a shipyard all line up, and that rarely happens on the timetable of the announcement. Albion has stayed at Devonport rather than being sold, which suggests the Navy is keeping its options open.
This programme is further ahead than the 2010 cases were. It has a signed deal with the Netherlands and money set aside in the Defence Investment Plan. It also carries an argument about jobs in British yards, which a government elected on investment in the regions wants to make loudly. That argument works best with a named yard, so the shipyard market is priced above the date market. Governments usually say who will build a ship long before they say when it will be ready.
A delivery timetable in the Defence Investment Plan this autumn would break the pattern at its weakest point.
Disclaimer
Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.
Published by Hunch under the Editorial Code. Complaints and corrections: /contact/.