Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
US midterms25 Oct 2026

Nebraska's Senator Pete Ricketts faces no Democrat. Senators in that spot all won.

Independent Dan Osborn faces Republican senator Pete Ricketts in Nebraska on 3 November. There is no Democrat on the ballot.

4 min read

What happened

Independent Dan Osborn is touring all 93 counties of Nebraska before the US Senate election, against Republican senator Pete Ricketts.

Dan Osborn, an independent, is visiting all 93 counties of Nebraska before the US Senate election on . He had about a dozen left this week and holds five or six town meetings a day. He is running against Pete Ricketts, the Republican senator for Nebraska.

In May the state Democratic party backed Osborn for November, and Burbank, a Democrat in the party’s primary vote, promised to step aside. The final list of candidates of has Ricketts, Osborn and three candidates from small parties, and no Democrat.

Advertisements for Ricketts say Osborn is a Democrat. Osborn tells voters: “I’m not a Republican, I’m not a Democrat“. He says Republican voters need a reason to vote for a man without their party’s name, so he meets them in person as often as he can.

Board of State Canvassers meets to certify the election results.

Nebraska Secretary of State, 2026 Official Election Calendar

This month Osborn said the race “could come down to hundreds of votes in Nebraska“. He ran in 2024 as well, against Republican senator Deb Fischer, and lost 46.5% to 53.2%.

Sources: theguardian.com

The Pattern

We looked for cases where a sitting US senator faced a candidate with no party, and the other big party had no candidate on the ballot. We found six such races from 1990 to 2024 in the official results. The senator was a Republican each time, and John Warner of Virginia won two of them. The 2024 race was Osborn’s first try.

6 of 6
In all six US Senate races since 1990 where an independent faced a sitting senator and no Democrat ran, the senator won. The last three won by 6.7 to 10.6 points.
2024 Nebraska, Fischerheld
: Republican senator Deb Fischer faced independent Dan Osborn, with no Democrat on the ballot. Fischer won 53.2% to 46.5%.
2022 Utah, Leeheld
: Republican senator Mike Lee faced Evan McMullin, who ran with no party, and no Democrat. Two small-party candidates also ran. Lee won 53.2% to 42.7%.
Show the other 4 cases
2014 Kansas, Robertsheld
: Republican senator Pat Roberts faced independent Greg Orman, with no Democrat. A Libertarian also ran. Roberts won 53.1% to 42.5%.
2002 Virginia, Warnerheld
: Republican senator John Warner faced two independents and no Democrat. He won 82.6%, against 9.7% for Nancy Spannaus and 7.1% for Jacob Hornberger.
2000 Arizona, Kylheld
: Republican senator Jon Kyl faced independent William Toel, with no Democrat. Green and Libertarian candidates also ran. Kyl won 79.3% to 7.8%.
1990 Virginia, Warnerheld
: Republican senator John Warner faced independent Nancy Spannaus, with no Democrat and no small-party candidates. Warner won 80.9% to 18.2%.

The Read

The six races fall into two groups. In 1990, 2000 and 2002 the senator won by more than 60 points. In 2014, 2022 and 2024 the gap was 6.7 to 10.6 points, and the closest was Osborn’s own race against Deb Fischer. This year Osborn runs again, and again there is no Democrat.

There are reasons for doubt. All six senators were Republicans, and John Warner of Virginia won two of the races. The newest example is Osborn himself, so past races say little about a second try by the same man. This year three small-party candidates are also on the ballot, which can pull Ricketts’s share closer to half even if he wins.

Disclaimer

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