Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Sign in
US courts30 Oct 2026

Samuel Alito, 76, says he is staying for now. Will he announce an exit by New Year?

US Supreme Court judge Samuel Alito is 76. On 6 October he said he will stay through the court's current year, which ends in summer 2027.

4 min read

What happened

If Trump Gets Another Supreme Court Pick, MAGA Wants a Loyalist. For years, Supreme Court aspirants have avoided talking about how they might rule. Trump’s frustrations with his first-term picks could change that.

Samuel Alito is 76 and has served on the court since 2006. On The New York Times reported that if Donald Trump gets another pick for the US Supreme Court, his MAGA movement wants a loyal judge. No seat is empty. Under the US Constitution, judges on the court have no fixed term.

In a CBS interview aired on , Alito said he thought about retiring in June. Asked if he would now think about it every year, he said “Yeah, I think I have to”. On Fox News he said “I’m going to serve for a certain number of additional years”. On he was taken to hospital after a dinner, and the court said he was treated for dehydration.

On Alito told Bloomberg he will stay this court year. He said “I intend to stick around through this term”, and the court year ends in late June or early . Bloomberg reported that he will not leave in the weeks between the election and January.

The US Senate approves new judges, and Republicans hold it now. Americans elect a third of the Senate on , as they do every two years. If Democrats win control, they could make it harder to confirm a judge to replace Alito. The new Senate meets on .

Justice Kennedy today advised his colleagues that he is submitting to the President a formal notification of his decision, effective July 31 of this year, to cease active status as an Associate Justice

US Supreme Court, press release, 27 June 2018

Sources: The New York Times, The Guardian, US National Archives (2), CNBC, US Supreme Court, The Independent, US Code

The Pattern

We looked for cases where a US Supreme Court judge aged 75 or more was openly asked about retiring in an election year, while the president and the Senate were from the party that appointed the judge, and the judge did not leave at the end of the June term. We found nine such judges from 1924 to 2014. Felix Frankfurter left in , and none of the other eight announced an exit from late October to New Year.

0 of 8
None of eight US Supreme Court judges aged 75 or more, openly asked about retiring in an election year, announced an exit from late October to 31 December. A ninth had left in August.
2014 Justice Breyernot held
In , with Barack Obama in office and Democrats at risk of losing the Senate, a Guardian column urged Stephen Breyer, 75, to retire. He did not announce that year. He announced in . (The Guardian)
2014 Justice Ginsburgnot held
Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 80, faced the same calls in 2014. She said that if she resigned that year, Obama could not get a judge she liked through the Senate. She stayed on the court until 2020. (The Guardian)
Show the other 6 cases
2004 Chief Justice Rehnquistnot held
On the court said Chief Justice William Rehnquist, 80, had thyroid cancer. After George W. Bush won again, he did not announce an exit, and he stayed in office until his death in 2005. (US Supreme Court)
1984 Justice Brennannot held
In TIME wrote that the next president would almost surely fill several seats. William Brennan, 78, did not announce after Ronald Reagan won again, and he served until 1990. (TIME)
1984 Justice Powellnot held
The same TIME report said Lewis Powell, 77, had served twelve years, when he was expected to stay no more than ten. He did not announce that year and retired in . (TIME)
1984 Justice Blackmunnot held
TIME also named the seat of Harry Blackmun, 75, as one that might open. He did not announce that year and served until 1994. (TIME)
1924 Justice Holmesnot held
On TIME reported that Oliver Wendell Holmes, 83, and Joseph McKenna were about to resign. Holmes did not, and he served until . (TIME)
1924 Justice McKennanot held
Joseph McKenna, 81, was named in the same TIME report. No announcement is on record before , when the court said he had already resigned to the President. (US Reports)

The Read

From late October to New Year, none of the eight past judges still in this position announced an exit. The ninth, Felix Frankfurter, had already left in because of his health. Joseph McKenna came closest: in TIME reported he was about to resign, and on the court said he had already resigned to the President. He is the only one of the eight who announced an exit by the end of the following June. Alito said on that he will stay through this court year. He spoke about when he would leave. He could still say in December that he will leave in summer.

There are reasons for doubt. Seven of these eight judges come from three years, 1924, 1984 and 2014, and each year’s judges were named together in one report. Three other judges left between an election and New Year: William Moody in 1910, William Day and Mahlon Pitney in 1922. Moody and Pitney were ill, and Alito was taken to hospital in March. Before a minority in the Senate could block a court nominee, and today a simple majority is enough.

Sources: TIME, US Reports (2, 3, 4), The American Presidency Project, CNBC, The Guardian (2)

Disclaimer

Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.

Published by Hunch under the Editorial Code. Complaints and corrections: /contact/.

Comment

Comments are moderated. Members post under their prediction record.
Hunch
Intuition based on experience

Read

Topics

Company

Legal

© Krok Group Ltd 2026. HUNCH is a registered trade mark of Krok Group Ltd (UK00004388957). Company No. 17183343 · ICO 00015312087 · Registered in England & Wales. Hunch Points carry no monetary value and cannot be exchanged for money or prizes. Forecasting is free to all registered readers.

Some cookies are essential for Hunch to work properly. Others are optional—you decide whether to allow them. We don’t sell your personal data. Learn more and change your choices at any time in Cookie settings.