Brazil's Flávio Bolsonaro lost and flew to Miami. Will he be home by the new year?

What happened

The defeated candidate in Brazil’s presidential election, Flávio Bolsonaro, has referred to himself as “leader of Brazil” in a letter he published on social media after leaving the country for the United States.

Flávio Bolsonaro left Brazil on 27 October without handing in his passports. Two days earlier he lost the presidential run-off to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 4.4 million votes. A Supreme Court judge had ordered him to give up his passports in an inquiry into money laundering. He crossed by land into Argentina, flew by private jet through Ecuador and landed in Miami on 28 October with his wife and two daughters. Lula called it “a shameful act”.

In a letter on 28 October he called himself the leader of Brazil. He said: “I did not flee Brazil; I left for the sake of Brazil”. He repeated, without evidence, that the vote was rigged. He said he would lead the opposition from the United States, as Charles de Gaulle led the French from London in the 1940s. A first version of the letter, online for less than an hour, called him Brazil’s true president-elect.

The US government gave him and his family visas. On 28 October President Donald Trump said “we gave him a pass to come into the country”, and then “I won’t get involved”. He gave the same answer when asked if he sees Bolsonaro as Brazil’s rightful leader. The Guardian reports that officials in Trump’s government criticised Bolsonaro for the words president-elect, because they did not want a full break with Brazil.

Two inquiries against him are open at home. Brazil’s Supreme Court is looking at alleged money laundering and at a payment of nearly $70m from a bank to a film about his father. He has not been charged and denies any wrongdoing. On 31 January his term as a senator ends, and with it the legal protection that comes with the seat. His father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, is in prison. His brother Eduardo has lived in the US since March 2025 and was found guilty in Brazil this year while away.

The president of the Republic has a four-year term of office, and it shall commence on January 5 following the election year.

Constitution of the Federative Republic of Brazil, Article 82

Sources: BBC (2), The Guardian (2)

The Pattern

We looked for cases where a candidate for president lost a national election, left the country within a year and lived abroad for more than 30 days. We found eight such exiles since 2007, in Africa, Europe and Latin America. Four of them left before the winner took office, as Flávio Bolsonaro did.

The Read

Three of the four who left before the winner took office were still abroad on that day. Edmundo González promised to fly back to Venezuela for his own swearing-in, then stayed in Spain. Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio’s father, came back from Florida after 90 days, with Lula already in office. The exception is Venâncio Mondlane in Mozambique. He feared arrest, but flew back six days before the winner was sworn in and said “if you want to negotiate … I am here”. Meetings came fast or not at all. Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, met González after four days, and Lithuania’s prime minister, Saulius Skvernelis, met Tsikhanouskaya after nine. Both countries’ leaders had praised them in public first.

There are reasons for doubt. Eight past exiles are few, and the closest came near the line: Mondlane was home at least 70 days after leaving, and 31 December is Flávio’s 65th day away. For 5 January only four of the eight left before the winner took office, so one return changes a lot, and Jair Bolsonaro left just two days before Lula took office. Jair Bolsonaro’s trip in 2022 was the same family and the same host country, but then the US president was Joe Biden, and now Trump gave the visa himself. In four countries no meeting with the host leader was reported, and in two it is not known. Both meetings were with a prime minister: counting only heads of state, none met the exile in person before the winner took office. Trump is both, and so far he says “I won’t get involved”.

Sources: The Guardian (2, 3, 4, 5), Al Jazeera (2, 3), LRT (2), BBC