María Elvira Salazar broke with Trump on deportations. Will Miami keep her?

What happened

Salazar is locked in a tight race against another Cuban American, the Democratic Party’s candidate, Eliott Rodríguez. Her close association with Trump on immigration could potentially cost Salazar her congressional seat.

Most Cuban Americans in Miami oppose the deportations, but most still plan to vote Republican. Florida International University (FIU) asked 1,004 Cuban American adults in Miami-Dade by phone from 4 to 29 September. 76% disapprove of tougher deportations of Cubans with no criminal record. Of those who gave an answer for Congress, 68% said Republican and 28% Democrat, and 12% of everyone asked did not know yet. FIU published the poll this week.

Last year President Donald Trump ended a temporary permission to stay in the US for about 300,000 Cubans. The White House says Trump was elected on a promise of mass deportations and is keeping it. Ismael Labrador, a Miami immigration lawyer who voted for Trump, told the BBC: “I think we got blindsided by the administration.”

In September Salazar, who has held the seat since 2020, released an advert that told Trump: “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.” On 19 September Trump answered: “Without me, she wouldn’t have gotten elected.” The next day she called herself “a proud Republican” on CBS television.

In 2024 Salazar won the district by 199,159 votes to 130,708, about 21 points, and Trump won it by nearly 15. Nearly three quarters of its people are Hispanic. On 30 October The Observer called the race a toss-up, with Salazar “neck-and-neck” with Rodríguez. The Guardian reported that anger among Hispanic voters could hand several House seats in Florida and other states to the Democrats.

The Elections Canvassing Commission shall meet ... at 8 a.m. on the 14th day after a general election to certify the returns of the election for each federal, state, and multicounty office and for each constitutional amendment.

Florida Statutes, section 102.111(2)

Sources: BBC, Florida International University, The Guardian, US House Clerk, The Observer

The Pattern

We looked for cases where a House member from the president’s party ran again in a midterm after breaking in public with the president on an issue that hurt voters at home, in a district and state the president had won by 10 points or more. The newest group that fits all of this is ten races in 2014, and older years have more. Each was a Democrat who voted on 15 November 2013 for a bill to let people keep their health plans, against Barack Obama’s veto threat. (US House Clerk; The American Presidency Project; The Guardian)

The Read

The past points to Salazar’s party keeping the seat. Only one of the ten members, Dan Maffei in New York, lost more of his lead than the 20.8 points Salazar won by in 2024. The FIU poll also shows most Cuban Americans in Miami still plan to vote Republican. Seven of the ten members got a smaller share than two years before. Had they started as far ahead as Salazar, only two of the ten races would have ended within 10 points.

There are reasons for doubt. All ten races came on one day in 2014, for one party, after one vote. In every one, the member had run behind Obama in the district, while Salazar ran ahead of Trump in 2024. Those members broke with the president in a vote, and Trump answered Salazar by name. In 2010, ten Democrats who voted against Obama’s health law in states he won by 10 points or more kept only five seats. Trump’s approval among Latino voters fell to 24% in early October, and The Observer calls the race a toss-up.

Sources: US House Clerk, US House Clerk (2), Florida International University, The Guardian (2), The Observer, Al Jazeera