Andy Burnham rules out an early vote. Will he change his mind before 2027?

What happened

Andy Burnham said on 25 September 2026 that he is not tempted to call an early general election and that the next election will be in 2029.

Andy Burnham says the next general election will be in 2029. Asked by ITV Calendar on 25 September if the vote would come then, he said: “Yes, that’s when the next election will be.” He told BBC reporters there would be no general election next May. The law says it must be held by August 2029.

Burnham replaced Keir Starmer as Labour leader and became prime minister on 20 July. He did not face a general election to get the job. Labour won a large majority in July 2024 on Starmer’s manifesto, and in July Burnham said he would work to that manifesto.

Talk of an early election had grown during the week. The BBC reported that Labour’s head office had started a campaign drive called “operation second term”, while Downing Street said no early election was planned. The Guardian reported that advisers and MPs had discussed one.

Polls have moved towards Labour since July, to around the low or mid twenties. Recent polling suggests Labour would lose its majority but stay the largest party if an election were held now.

Three dates come next. Burnham speaks to the Labour conference in Liverpool on 29 September. Voters in Holborn and St Pancras, Starmer’s old seat, elect a new MP on 8 October. The Budget is on 28 October.

Sources: BBC (2, 3, 4, 5), The Guardian, HM Treasury

The Pattern

We looked for cases where a UK prime minister took over between elections from a leader of the same party, with a working majority and at least two years before an election was due. We found nine since 1902. None of them called an election in the first five months. Two called one within a year, Stanley Baldwin in 1923 and Theresa May in 2017. Both said they needed support for a new policy, and both lost their majority.

Show the other 7 cases

2016 UK, Maynot held

July 2016: Theresa May took over with the majority won in 2015 and said there should be no election until 2020. On 18 April 2017, 279 days in, she called one for June. (BBC News)

2007 UK, Brownnot held

June 2007: Gordon Brown took over with the majority won in 2005. After weeks of talk, on 6 October he said: “I’ll not be calling an election.” He called one on 6 April 2010. (BBC News)

1957 UK, Macmillannot held

January 1957: Harold Macmillan took over from Anthony Eden with the majority won in 1955. The next general election came in October 1959. (BBC News)

1937 UK, Chamberlainnot held

May 1937: Neville Chamberlain took over from Stanley Baldwin, whose government had won a majority of 249 in 1935. He called no election before he resigned in May 1940. (GOV.UK)

1923 UK, Baldwinnot held

May 1923: Stanley Baldwin took over when Andrew Bonar Law fell ill. On 13 November, more than five months in, he asked for an election to seek support for trade tariffs, and lost his majority. (Hansard, 13 Nov 1923)

1908 UK, Asquithnot held

1908: Herbert Henry Asquith took over from Henry Campbell-Bannerman, two years after the Liberal landslide of 1906. That Parliament ran on until December 1909. (GOV.UK)

1902 UK, Balfournot held

July 1902: Arthur Balfour took over from his uncle, Lord Salisbury, whose party had won the 1900 election. He called no election and resigned in December 1905. (GOV.UK)

The Read

History says an election this year is very unlikely. None of the nine prime ministers in Burnham’s position called one within five months. The earliest was Stanley Baldwin in 1923, who asked for an election in November, a few days later in his term than Burnham will be on 31 December. The quick elections in the wider record came from leaders who had less than two years left, like Anthony Eden in 1955, or no majority, like Boris Johnson in 2019.

The first year is less certain. Two of the nine called an election within a year, and both said they needed backing for a new policy. What a leader says in public tells us little: Gordon Brown ruled out an election in 2007 and kept to it, while Theresa May said there would be none until 2020 and then called one. The record is all British and goes back to 1902, when the rules on how long a Parliament lasts were different. A new policy that Labour’s 2024 manifesto does not cover, raised at the conference or the Budget, would be the sign to watch.