Toy Story 5 had the series' biggest opening. Can it make $1bn in seven weeks?

What happened

Toy Story 5 held the top spot in its second weekend with $70m as Supergirl opened below expectations at $38m.

Toy Story 5 took $160m in North America on its first weekend. It played in 4,425 cinemas from 19 to 21 June. That was the biggest opening of 2026 and the biggest in the series, well above the $120m of Toy Story 4 in 2019.

Outside North America the film added $152m, for $312m worldwide. It was the second-largest opening weekend ever for an animated film, behind only the $182.7m that Incredibles 2 took in North America in 2018.

The whole box office had its first $200m weekend of the year, which cinema owners had waited for all spring. Cinemark, a US cinema chain, had its best June weekend ever because of the film.

Family films that keep their audience like this in the second weekend usually play well into August. The last two Toy Story films both passed $1bn, and that is now the number that matters.

Sources: The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, Box Office Mojo

The Pattern

Five Pixar sequels opened above $110m in North America. All five later passed $1bn worldwide, from Toy Story 3 in 2010 to Inside Out 2 in 2024. The only difference between them was how fast they got there.

The Read

History says yes. Toy Story 5 opened 32% above Toy Story 4 and kept its audience in the second weekend better than most big films. It goes into July with schools out and no direct family rival until mid-August. Toy Story 4 took roughly eight weeks to reach $1bn from a $120m start, and a film running a third ahead of it should get there sooner. In North America, following Toy Story 4’s daily pattern, scaled up to the bigger opening, puts the film past $434m by late July with room to spare.

The doubt is about timing. The five earlier films had as long as they needed, and this question gives Toy Story 5 seven weeks. The worldwide total depends on the film opening on different dates in different countries. Families have also spent a lot already this year: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie took over $1bn from the same audience this spring.

How fast ticket sales drop from week to week will decide it. Films with a big opening often go on to earn a smaller multiple of it. If Toy Story 5 ends at 2.8 times its opening, against 3.6 times for Toy Story 4, $1bn arrives after 10 August, even if the film gets there in the end. The North American target is the safer of the two. The worldwide date is a real race.