Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market09 Oct 2026

Will the FCC drop its early review of US TV network ABC by 3 Nov?

BinaryResolves 3 Nov 2026
Hunch8%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The FCC did not end or pause the early review of ABC's eight station licences by 3 November 2026: a Reuters report of 4 November (read via CNA, off-list host) says the review is still in focus and Chairman Brendan Carr said last week he had made no decisions on the licences, and Deadline reports no FCC statement ending it; fcc.gov returns Access Denied.

Resolved 3 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. No count from past fights: none of them shows a regulator dropping its own action. This question comes from the FCC's motive to keep pressure through licences.

Hunch. The FCC chair said in July that ABC's refusal to air a speech by the president would likely come up in the review, which points to keeping it open.

How this resolves

Resolves YES if by 3 November 2026 the FCC itself says the early review of ABC's eight station licences is finished, cancelled or paused, on fcc.gov or in a statement reported by The Guardian or BBC. A pause only because a court ordered it counts as NO.

The pattern behind it

3 of 5
In three of five such fights a judge stopped the government two days after the hearing. In the other two it took 44 and 182 days.

We looked for cases where a company or group asked a US federal court to stop a government body acting against it, and said the action was revenge for what it had said or published. We found 13 such fights since 2018. The five shown here are the closest to ABC's: the judge did not decide on the day of the first hearing. In all five the court in the end stopped the government or struck down its action.