Hunch. A body built like the Space Force needs money and law from Congress, and the Congress that would have to vote it meets for the first time on the resolution date, which pushes the paper towards the czar half of the promise rather than the force half.
The January market resolves the same way on the same two sites, with the window running to the end of 3 January 2027. It resolves YES on the first of either event, an order or memorandum establishing the AI Force or a named appointment to the AI czar post, and NO if neither has happened by that date.
We looked at every new federal body or post that the president announced in his own words since January 2025 without signing anything that day. Then we counted the days until an executive order, a memo or an official appointment followed. Announcements made at a signing, with the paper already on the desk, are left out. We found seven. The same man decided all seven, so they are not fully separate cases. Newest first.