Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market12 Sep 2026

Does the UK issue a formal response to the slowdown call by 13 Oct?

BinaryResolves 13 Oct 2026
History38%
Hunch42%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No gov.uk or AISI item dated 13 September to 13 October 2026 names Amodei's essay or the slowdown call or sets up a review on the pacing of frontier releases; the AI minister's 12 October release and speech cover cyber defences and pre-release model access without naming the call.

Resolved 13 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on gov.uk and aisi.gov.uk, which publish No 10, ministerial and AI Security Institute releases on the day of announcement: YES if an item dated 13 September to 13 October 2026 names Amodei's essay, the slowdown call or its independent-evaluator proposal, or announces a new AISI review, testing arrangement or consultation on the pacing of frontier releases; an oral answer in the Commons, a minister's social media post, a grant to an existing scheme or a restatement of the Mythos 5.1 access position does not count. If neither site has published, BBC and Guardian reports of a published government statement settle it, and silence on all of them by 23:59 BST on 13 October resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

3 of 8
Three of the last eight calls drew a formal UK response within 30 days, all in spring 2023 as Sunak built his safety summit; the four calls since, and Musk's in 2017, drew nothing from London beyond scheduled items.

We found eight such calls since 2017. Each came from the head of a leading AI company and asked for a pause, a slowdown or new rules. For each one we checked whether the UK government gave a formal reply on gov.uk within 30 days: a statement or meeting note naming the call or its authors, or a new review, taskforce or consultation on the safety of advanced AI.