Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market12 Sep 2026

Does OpenAI, Anthropic or xAI delay a named model release by 13 Oct?

BinaryResolves 13 Oct 2026
Hunch35%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

On 26 September 2026 OpenAI said it had paused training of its latest models and would resume only when it was confident it had additional safeguards, as the Guardian reports; openai.com could not be read (Cloudflare block).

Resolved 26 Sep 2026
How this resolves

(adjacent). The market resolves on the newsrooms of openai.com, anthropic.com and x.ai: YES if a company post dated 13 September to 13 October 2026 states that a named model or model version will be released later than a date the company had previously given, or that its training or release is paused for a stated period or until a stated condition is met; pledges to pace the frontier, evaluator-access schemes and the two-week reinforcement-learning slowdown OpenAI announced on 18 August do not count. Because openai.com and x.ai block automated readers, BBC and Guardian reports of the company post settle it, and silence by 23:59 PDT on 13 October resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

3 of 8
Three of the last eight calls drew a formal UK response within 30 days, all in spring 2023 as Sunak built his safety summit; the four calls since, and Musk's in 2017, drew nothing from London beyond scheduled items.

We found eight such calls since 2017. Each came from the head of a leading AI company and asked for a pause, a slowdown or new rules. For each one we checked whether the UK government gave a formal reply on gov.uk within 30 days: a statement or meeting note naming the call or its authors, or a new review, taskforce or consultation on the safety of advanced AI.