History. In three of four fights since 2000 where someone asked a court to stop a US state certifying a result, a court delayed it. No US government had brought such a request before.
Hunch. On 23 October voting law experts said the claim was so thin it had essentially no chance, because the secret ballot hides what voters meant.
The certification market counts only if Senator Dan Sullivan loses the last ranked-choice round by fewer votes than Daniel J Sullivan got as a first choice, in the first full count the Alaska Division of Elections publishes, and is cancelled otherwise. If it counts, it resolves YES if at the end of 25 November 2026, Alaska time, a court order stops or delays the state from certifying its Senate result and the state has not certified it, with the court record and Reuters, BBC and The Guardian as backups.
We looked for cases where anyone asked a court to stop or delay a US state from certifying an election result, and a court ruled. No US government had done this before, so all six requests we found came from candidates, a party, voters or another state. Three of them were one fight against Joe Biden’s 2020 win, so there were four fights. A court delayed certification in three.