History. In all four fights since 2000, the leader of the count won in the end. In three, this came within eight days of the planned date; in North Carolina it took 126 days.
Hunch. Experts said on 23 October the lawsuit had almost no chance, and Alaska plans to certify on 25 November, five weeks before the new term.
Resolves YES if by noon on 3 January 2027, Washington time, Alaska certifies as Senate winner the candidate who led the last ranked-choice round when the Division of Elections first published the full count. It resolves NO if no winner is certified by then or another candidate is, with Reuters, BBC and The Guardian as backups.
We looked for cases where anyone asked a court to stop or delay a US state from certifying an election result, and a court ruled. No US government had done this before, so all six requests we found came from candidates, a party, voters or another state. Three of them were one fight against Joe Biden’s 2020 win, so there were four fights. A court delayed certification in three.