Kimi Antonelli finished third at the Mexico City Grand Prix on 1 November 2026 and leads the formula1.com drivers' table on 380 points to Max Verstappen's 261 with four races left, so no one can catch him; The Guardian reports he clinched the title.
Hunch. Kimi Antonelli has scored about six points a weekend more than George Russell this year, and Russell now has to beat him by two points over two races. Editorial scoring note: The primary sample comprises the four selected closest seasons, not all seven displayed seasons. Two of four leaders were champions by the next race; one of four became champion at that race. Rosberg taking 28 days does not satisfy the next-race outcome.
The Mexico market resolves on the 2026 drivers' table at formula1.com: YES if after the US or Mexico City race no driver can still catch Kimi Antonelli on points, and NO if the title is still open after Mexico. If the Mexico race is cancelled, the table on 1 November decides, with BBC Sport and The Guardian as the backup.
We looked for cases where a Formula 1 leader could clinch the title at a race, but only if his closest rival, a team-mate, also finished low. We counted races from 1991 to 2025. We found seven such races, each in a different season. All seven leaders were champion by the end of that season.