Kimi Antonelli won the US Grand Prix on 25 October 2026, but the formula1.com drivers' table shows him on 365 points against 242 for George Russell, a lead of 123, below the 125 needed, and The Guardian confirms the title waits for Mexico.
Hunch. Kimi Antonelli must win in Austin, and he also needs George Russell ninth or lower and Lewis Hamilton fifth or lower. Editorial scoring note: The primary sample comprises the four selected closest seasons, not all seven displayed seasons. Two of four leaders were champions by the next race; one of four became champion at that race. Rosberg taking 28 days does not satisfy the next-race outcome.
The Austin market resolves on the formula1.com drivers' table after the US Grand Prix on 25 October: YES if no driver can still catch Antonelli, which BBC Sport puts at a lead of at least 125 points. If the race is cancelled the market is VOID, with BBC Sport and The Guardian as the backup.
We looked for cases where a Formula 1 leader could clinch the title at a race, but only if his closest rival, a team-mate, also finished low. We counted races from 1991 to 2025. We found seven such races, each in a different season. All seven leaders were champion by the end of that season.