Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market28 Oct 2026

Will Apple beat analysts' profit-per-share forecast on 2 Nov?

BinaryResolves 2 Nov 2026
History44%
Hunch57%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Apple's results release of 2 November 2026 shows diluted profit of $2.10 a share for July to September, above the $1.99 analysts' estimate (LSEG) named in the Reuters report; Reuters blocked our scripts, so its report was read in the Globe and Mail's copy, and The Guardian gives the same $1.99 estimate.

Resolved 2 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Tim Cook warned on 30 July that this quarter would be short of supply, which gave analysts three months to lower the bar Apple now has to clear.

How this resolves

The profit per share market resolves on Apple's results release on apple.com/newsroom and investor.apple.com: YES if diluted profit per share for July to September 2026 is strictly above the analysts' estimate Reuters names in its report on 2 November, NO if equal or below. If Reuters is closed, the estimate comes from The Guardian and BBC News, two of them agreeing.

The pattern behind it

7 of 9
Seven of nine times since 2000 that a new chief executive of a big US company gave the first results after a long-serving leader, the shares went down, and twice they went up.

We looked for cases where a large company gave its quarterly results for the first time under a new chief executive, who had replaced a leader of eight years or more. We found nine such reports since 2000, all at US companies. Microsoft is there twice, in 2000 and 2014. One of the nine is Apple itself: Tim Cook’s first results in October 2011, when a new iPhone also went on sale after the quarter ended.