Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market28 Oct 2026

Will Apple's iPhone sales for July to September top a year earlier?

BinaryResolves 2 Nov 2026
Hunch74%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The product table in Apple's results release of 2 November 2026 shows iPhone sales of $57,583 million for July to September 2026, above $49,025 million a year earlier; BBC News reports iPhone sales up 17% to $57bn.

Resolved 2 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Apple said on 30 July that iPhone sales grew 22% in the June quarter, well above the pace that would drop the next quarter below a year earlier.

How this resolves

The iPhone sales market resolves on the product table in Apple's results release of 2 November: YES if iPhone sales for July to September 2026 are strictly above the figure for July to September 2025 in the same table, NO if equal or below. The Guardian and BBC News are the backups.

The pattern behind it

7 of 9
Seven of nine times since 2000 that a new chief executive of a big US company gave the first results after a long-serving leader, the shares went down, and twice they went up.

We looked for cases where a large company gave its quarterly results for the first time under a new chief executive, who had replaced a leader of eight years or more. We found nine such reports since 2000, all at US companies. Microsoft is there twice, in 2000 and 2014. One of the nine is Apple itself: Tim Cook’s first results in October 2011, when a new iPhone also went on sale after the quarter ended.