Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market02 Oct 2026

Will Daryz win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on 4 October?

BinaryResolves 4 Oct 2026
History44%
Hunch40%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Daryz won the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp on 4 October 2026, the official France Galop result shows, and the Guardian reported his back-to-back win.

Resolved 4 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 4 of 9 cases won again; 7 different horses, Stradivarius three times.

Hunch. The Arc has 16 runners, more than any of the nine cases, where fields were 7 to 14 (France Galop race card, 4 Oct 2026).

How this resolves

Resolves on the official France Galop result of race 5 at ParisLongchamp on 4 October 2026 (Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe), after the stewards: YES if Daryz is first. Any other winner resolves NO. A dead heat for first, or Daryz not running, resolves VOID. The Guardian is the backup.

The pattern behind it

4 of 9
Four of nine favourites won again: Yeats in 2009, Cracksman in 2018 and Stradivarius in 2019 and 2020. Two more finished second. Three finished fourth or lower.

We looked for cases where last year's winner of a top British race for older horses ran in it again the next year as favourite, with the same trainer and jockey. We kept to male horses that were not gelded, like Daryz. Full results are open from 1988. We found nine, from 1996 to 2026. The horse won again in four. Six of the nine were the Gold Cup at Ascot, a race of about 4,000 metres. Stradivarius gives three of the nine.