Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market02 Oct 2026

Will Daryz finish first or second in the Arc on 4 October?

BinaryResolves 4 Oct 2026
History67%
Hunch57%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Daryz won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp on 4 October 2026, ahead of Bay City Roller, according to the France Galop result and Sky Sports.

Resolved 4 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 6 of 9 cases finished first or second; the other three finished fourth or lower.

Hunch. Daryz finished third in his race before last, and the Arc field of 16 is bigger than any field in the cases (France Galop race card, 4 Oct 2026).

How this resolves

Resolves on the official France Galop result of the same race, after the stewards: YES if Daryz is first or second, a dead heat for second included. Third or lower resolves NO. Daryz not running resolves VOID. The Guardian is the backup.

The pattern behind it

4 of 9
Four of nine favourites won again: Yeats in 2009, Cracksman in 2018 and Stradivarius in 2019 and 2020. Two more finished second. Three finished fourth or lower.

We looked for cases where last year's winner of a top British race for older horses ran in it again the next year as favourite, with the same trainer and jockey. We kept to male horses that were not gelded, like Daryz. Full results are open from 1988. We found nine, from 1996 to 2026. The horse won again in four. Six of the nine were the Gold Cup at Ascot, a race of about 4,000 metres. Stradivarius gives three of the nine.