History. 3 of 6: The Big Short, Concussion and Patriots Day, all from 2015 and 2016; the three later films took less.
Hunch. All six past films came from bigger companies, and the three most recent took less than $10 million in their first wide weekend.
The wide-weekend market resolves on Box Office Mojo weekend tables up to 17 January 2027: YES if the film's first Friday-to-Sunday weekend in 600 or more US cinemas takes more than $10 million and NO if $10 million or less. If it never plays in 600 or more cinemas by 17 January the market is void, with Variety and Deadline as backup.
We looked for cases where a film about famous living people was shown at a festival without reports of a mixed reaction, then reached US cinemas between 15 and 31 December and later played in at least 600. We found six since 2015. None had been dropped by an earlier owner.